Drew
10.6K posts
$OKLO failed breakdown of lows, gap support, 20ema hold. Now engulfing
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Haven't traded these quantum names do I dare dip my toe into this $QUBT? Weekly chart = A+ 🔥
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@stewmurraymusic mind if I ask what script you use on trading view for PDVWAP? I haven’t found one I like and saw your screenshot with it … thank you
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@1ChartMaster How do you like to position with earnings so close? Great entry, easy risk level LOD, but if no move before earnings seems risky to hold into it. p.s. hope your recovery is better, you the man
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I grabbed a little on the morning pullback. Stop LOD
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forget a network state, i want to start a remote college where:
1. there are like 4 campuses globally and students spend 1 year a year going to each campus w the same cohort of like 1000
2. schools are hybrid in person / remote
3. AI tools and approach to learning and work
4. a 1 year class to build a thing (anything)
5. focus on reading and local culture/history vs math/code
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@ConnorJBates_ Thanks for the great charts Connor. How are you seeing $XYZ … big base just retested weekly 21 ema
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The Bigger The Base, The Higher in Space.
$HIMS $BROS $RKLB $PLTR
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@happiestbaby can you reply to the support ticket for zoekschiffer@gmail.com? We keep getting the same error message when trying to initiate a SNOO return
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@baseandbreak I didn't enter as a FBD. I entered on the overshoot of the gap fill, what I was reading on the screen, and with the confidence that there WAS a FBD only a few points below 39 (34ish reclaim 36) that I viewed as a safety net.
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@EricSeiler7 Hey Eric. Curious, what gave you the confidence to bid 39? I felt really good about the support at that level but didn't pull trigger till 46 when it showed more acceptance. Interested to get your insight as I'm still learning FBDs thank you x.com/EricSeiler7/st…
Eric "Yes, they can hurt us! We bleedin'!" Seiler@EricSeiler7
@AdamMancini4 I'm in at 39s. Willing to give this some room.
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@AdamMancini4 @SergiosSketos Job numbers on Thursday if market wants to wait that long
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@SergiosSketos Yes - usually that means a move is coming though, market needs some sort of catalyst
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As provided in last nights newsletter, we saw a classic Failed Breakdown this morning in #ES_F: Yesterdays lows were 5865. We flushed it, trapped, reclaimed. Longs triggered, now at 5878 1st target. Nothing to do now but let runners go.
5892, 5902+ if ES wants. 5867 now support
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Today's limited strength has been due to my core setup: A Failed Breakdown of yesterdays 5865 lows in #ES_F as given in yesterdays newsletter. We flushed, trapped shorts, reclaimed. 5878 was 1st target as posted, and its been a ceiling. Will need to clear to run to 5892, 5902+.
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@BrunnerTrades @AdamMancini4 Seems like just a matter of screen time and getting the 'real time feel'f for FBDs and when to enter. I notice that if I enter late, I just need to accept the higher risk of draw down from stop loss below FBD level (5725)
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@AdamMancini4 Thought so, def riskier to take below there, but would you say attempting entry after the pop to 47’s is risky too (above 39’s)? When I miss ideal entry (37-39) here, sometimes I’m too quick to right off the trade & consider it missed and sit out when I know I can get in higher
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Fast failed breakdown in #ES_F & 5739 remains todays battleground. We tested it overnight 2x.We then flushed it, got to 5729 1st down, put in a failed breakdown of both 5739 & yesterdays low as per newsletter. Lock in gains now
39 fails, sell back to 29, 11. 5754, 5763 above
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@BrunnerTrades @AdamMancini4 Same with me. I was looking for a sharp FBD with a wick and instead we just got a slow and steady sell down then buy right back up on 45 min candles (no wicks). Adding this type of FBD pattern variation to my mental map for future!
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@AdamMancini4 What was more important lvl to reclaim here Yest (33) Low or Ovn (35-39M) Lows. Wanted to wait a couple mins but popped directly to 47 (~20pts off the low) and felt like now the easy play was over (from 34). Then hesitated when couldve grabbed 42-54 on the mini dip. Both worked
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@3PeaksTrading Jason, have you seen this book from Nate Silver? Talks about probability risk assessments in everyday life. Seems right up your alley penguinrandomhouse.com/books/529280/o…
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Trading is a probability game, very much like poker or sports wagering.
Thats why I think seasoned risk takers in other parts of life do very well in trading/investing.
They understand risk/reward well and the certain moments in time when you should go heavier on an assumption. Can tell right away who is a good risk taker usually just by talking to them. No reason to ever fear risk, unless you over leverage. Size kills
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I love the fact that everyone suddenly seems aware that $SPY September #seasonality is weak.
Yes it usually can be but tends to be better in Presidential election years. You actually may be fairly shocked to see what could be coming in September. Here's the proof below in my thread: 👇🧵
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@BeefPockets @AdamMancini4 Yeah even for entires 15 min works well. Check out yesterday's FBD -- the 3rd 15 min candle at 1:30 pm is a hammer on 5615 ... clear entry. Versus first candle at 1:00 pm and second at 1:15 min would've been difficult to decipher on a 5 min chart view. Just my perspective tho
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@baseandbreak @AdamMancini4 Hey thank you, appreciate the advice. Switching back and forth from 5 &15 currently. 15min is definitely a cleaner picture of fbd. But might use 5min to then enter? Playing on sim to find out.
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@AdamMancini4 I struggle with picking entries on failed breakdowns. I use five min candles. Not sure if that is sufficient for seeing acceptance or rejection of a level when being retested after a flush?
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@BeefPockets @AdamMancini4 What has worked well for me is only 15 min candles. 5/10 min is just too low time frame. Once I switched to 15 min only, I saw the FBDs better. Just 2 cents in case that helps
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@AdamMancini4 I got my answe about acceptance and rejection on today's letter. Thanks.
Just wondering since you brought up momentum playing a part in the acceptance and rejection of a level... do you use any indicators for this such as relative volume?
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@AdamMancini4 @Tien_1000 On a reclaim trade, would you manage your stop in the same standard way … 7-11 below the reclaimed level? I know for failed breakdown it’s the lowest low in the structure, but curious on reclaim — thanks and happy friday
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@Tien_1000 I took it, was nice and early in the evening so not an issue for me
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Yesterday morning, #ES_F flushed 5460, and put in a failed breakdown (my core edge) triggering a 75 point short squeeze. Overnight, we got the same trigger again. Basing.
Plan today: 5474, 5457=supports. As long as above, we push 5498 trgt 1, 5511, 5519+. If 57 fails, see 5438
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Closing update: Full round trip day in #ES_F. 5460 triggered longs this morning, and we got a 75 point leg that trigger. Now, back to square 1. 5457=overnight support, 5474 reclaim triggers back up. Newsletter out soon talking entries tonight/tomorrow tradecompanion.substack.com
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