Borja

Newest out. Haypp Group: Engine for the New Environment "Q1'26 note" $HAYPP $PM $BTI $MO $IMBBY $STG

Started a small pos in $PEW following this pitch (highly recommended), hearing the Q1 conf call and doing some DD. I really liked the CEO's commentary about M&A. It seems there are many ways to win here with a very limited downside.

$PEW printed Q1 26 results: _Revenue $26.0M (vs consensus $24.5M), +11% YoY, ahead of 2% industry growth _Gross profit $2.8M, +23% YoY _Adj. EBITDA -$2.0M (vs consensus -$2.4M) _Adj. EPS -$0.06 (vs -$0.08) _Bought back $2.4M of stock Normal quarter but what gets very exciting is the commentary. I'd highly encourage listening to the call. I want to highlight two big things. 1 - Massive optionality developing in the legalization of direct shipments of firearms to consumers' homes. Quote from the Q1 26 call: "The ATF has proposed new regulations that would allow certain firearm transfers to occur remotely, with federal background check requirements still met through secure identity verification. If finalized, lawful consumers could complete the full compliance process remotely. That includes direct to home firearm delivery within an approved framework. This could be the most significant change to firearms retail distribution in decades. Importantly, the infrastructure required to operate in this environment is complex. As currently proposed, the new regulations require remote identity verification, meeting federal standards, seamless integration, advanced compliance systems, secure record keeping, and the operational ability to execute all of it accurately at scale. Grab a gun is uniquely positioned for this opportunity. For more than 15 years, we have built the Digital Infrastructure and Compliance Foundation required to support highly regulated online firearm transactions. Few companies are positioned to adapt this quickly if the rules change, regardless of regulatory outcome." This could both skyrocket the penetration of e-commerce platforms like GrabAGun, but also be a MASSIVE tailwind for PEW Logistics, since the main pushback would be that you still need the buy in of dealers to take delivery of weapons. If that's no longer the case, the odds of PEW Logistics being the back-end infrastructure of all the gun manufacturers going DTC go wayyy up. 2 - Solid commentary that gives me better comfort they won't blow the cash: " We're not in the business of overpaying to hit arbitrary growth targets. The strength of our balance sheet gives the luxury of patience. We can wait for the right assets at the right price, rather than chasing deals that don't make strategic or financial sense." I want to remind people you're paying less than $0 for the business, and also that -$2M of EBITDA isnt actually cash burn, EBITDA excludes the large amount of interest they earn on their cash.

@huntforcatalyst Yep. Complete shit show.

@bdc2396 There you go

Agree on almost everything said here. I have a position myself. Very compelling but can't get off my mind we are over estimating mgmt capacity on this one. Q1 call exposed how bad mgmt comm is...plenty of ways to realize value, just not sure if they have the ability to execute.

Out of this one. CMD was a shit show IMO. Oriola is extremely cheap but as said: I overstated mgmt ability to execute. Could be a M&A target tbh but Im keeping on the sidelines for now.

@MorenoValue Y esto sin meternos en sin podrán cobrar los receivables del BS o no. Hay que ver como evoluciona la situación. Cuando el mgmt (que es excelente) han decidido poner medidas de precaución (cortar div y costes) para preservar cash...la cosa no pinta bien.

@MorenoValue El backlog son 25,8 MM CAD, en caso de que puedan convertirlo en revenue (cosa que dudo mucho), el crecimiento de ese revenue se verá afectado por el diferimiento de los rig allocations por parte de ADNOC y, más tarde, ARAMCO.

¿Cuánto vale una empresa que crece al 10% anual, no tiene deuda y cotiza a 7x beneficios? 🔍 He construido tres escenarios para responder esa pregunta sobre McCoy Global. Los números me han sorprendido. Nadie en español había analizado $MCB.TO en profundidad. Hasta hoy. 👉 morenovalue.substack.com

$CRON just impressive results with no contribution from CanAdelaar acq yet. Massive inflection in the P&L. Increased buyback pace and approved a new program 50 MM USD for this year.

$CRON Pivotal morning for the equity story on these results. None of this is should be surprising but very few actually trade this for its fundamentals, so the market is going to have to catch up: - 40% top line growth to $45m due to intl growth and the long telegraphed GrowCo expansion, on 42% gross margins; - EBTIDA +122% to $5m; net income +100%. - Buyback pace accelerated significantly to $17m in the quarter. Major earnings inflection accompanied by a shrinking of the equity. - Share gains in major category, incl now #1 in vapes. - EV ~$180m (1x sales) on a 40% revenue growth rate, inflecting profits, and a margin accretive acquisition coming online this summer that will more than double EBITDA. Incredible.

2 days later and sell side has updated their models and price targets to tell their clients that $MRX earnings were, in fact, good.

Decided to add more exposure to $MRX after this day. 8x Fwd P/E while generating 30+% ROEs and keeping impressive growth rates...

@roojoo3 Fully agree.

@bdc2396 EPS expectations started the year at $4.25. It's still at $4.89. They are run rating north of $6... and there are structural growth drivers here...

As per the call, Q2 is trending in line with Q1 (though below March), but with a higher quality of earnings: recovering prime business, slightly more competitive market making, higher client balances. That's a run rate of over $6 EPS. 8x P/E.

$MRX down on record earnings and positive commentary around April trading activity.

$NMM Two weeks ago, I spent several days meeting with both listed and non-listed shipping companies in Greece. It’s encouraging to see that, overall, shipping owners are now more disciplined than before and are not rushing to order vessels on spec. However, we all understand human nature, and I believe everyone will become greedy at some point. Balance sheets look very good, and rates are excellent, so I think the only reason for the delay in placing more orders is that you have to wait until late 2028 or 29 to take delivery of newbuildings. Although I’ve been following NMM since 2016 and regularly meet with them—usually with a team lead by the COO—the meeting with Angeliki was particularly surprising. She presented a compelling investment case, emphasizing the company's resilience and predictability. She also highlighted that she automatically buys shares in the market every day to remain fully compliant and avoid interfering with the ongoing buyback program. By increasing her stake, she aligns completely with the minority shareholders. It's important to note that she is purchasing shares in the market similar to us, unlike other companies that offer large stock-based compensation, which significantly dilutes minority shareholders. Navios's true strength will be revealed not during good times, but when the market suddenly shifts. NMM has a robust backlog that ensures the company's safety even in a major crisis, as its contract revenues more than cover all cash expenses. However, the backlog alone isn't enough, as it diminishes over time; the key factors are the young fleet and diversification. A 5-year-old vessel is 30% more efficient than a 10-year-old one. Technological advancements have greatly improved efficiency, which is less noticeable in good times but critical during downturns. Diversification allows better management of investments and strategies, especially as drybulk and tankers are rarely impacted simultaneously. She assesses risks carefully, especially in good times. While Navios must continually renew its fleet, current vessel prices are high, so they secure long-term charters that greatly reduce residual value risk. This makes the investment either good or excellent, depending on future market conditions, but never poor. Shipping is fundamentally about risk mitigation. For example, Navios has five vessels in the Hormuz area paid through time charters. She noted that even if a counterparty tries to reduce payments due to force majeure or if a vessel is attacked, trapped, or abandoned for a year, insurance coverage ensures they are fully compensated for any lost revenue and the vessel's value. She also showed us the Navios' technological capabilities. Starlink provides them with increased data access and supports their smartship tool, enhancing efficiency and profitability. Finally, we discussed the three segments. We both agree that Containers are the most vulnerable, especially in the event of a global crisis. However, the low activity in the Red Sea and NMM's long-term order book in this segment makes them quite secure. Additionally, she emphasized that NMM is not focused on the largest sizes (>10k TEU), which are crucial for liners and have a massive orderbook. Therefore, NMM's container segment is likely more resilient than the typical container segment. On the other hand, tankers and bulkers look very positive. Hormuz traffic will take some time to return to normal due to damage and the 70 vessels trapped, which limit activity. However, when the hub reopens, we’re likely to see a rate squeeze, with NMM having some vessels ready to seize any opportunities. Additionally, there’s a high chance that the USA and Russia will reach an agreement, leading to the dark fleet's disappearance. The dark fleet is now blacklisted and will likely be scrapped, similar to the Venezuelan vessels that were seized. Tanker rates are at all-time highs, and tanker equities are also trading well above NAV, though Navios remains deeply undervalued at around 0.45 NAV. Does that make sense? Lastly, drybulk shipping remains very robust. The ME conflict is boosting gas-to-coal switching and highlighting coal's continued importance for many economies. She speculated that countries may begin building strategic coal reserves in the future. Demand for iron and bauxite remains strong, especially given the aging fleet and the minimal orderbook. The outlook for this segment is excellent, and Navios charters are positioned to benefit from rate spikes, particularly on capesize vessels. In the first four months of 2026, Capes averaged $28,000/day, up from $18,000/day last year, more than doubling their earnings. Term charter activity is rising, with 3-year charters near $30,000/day, compared to the $27,000/day average on the spot market over the past five years. Navios has performed well in recent years, but I believe it is still significantly undervalued on both a relative and an absolute basis. I also anticipate that contracted revenue in 2026 will surpass that of 2025, as Navios is seizing opportunities to secure very favorable charters. While many shipping segments may be near the peak of the cycle, I argue that Navios still has considerable upside with limited downside risk. This is why it remains my sole exposure to equity shipping companies at this time. We also own a significant position in Navios bonds.

@huntforcatalyst Yes. And we are not even talking about the adjusting items going on forever because of the disastrous ERP implementation and having in mind another DC investment underway (via leasing)...Lets see if they do something about the JV bleeding

@bdc2396 Fully agree here. Mgmt is absolutely retarded and a reflect of what is going wrong in Europe. The business is excellent and the valuation is ridiculous

(1/12) 🆕 investment thesis on a great opportunity I found in the Nordics. Long with a mid-sized position at Meridion. Let’s fly to Finland ⏩ Oriola $ORIOLA.HE is the leading provider of pharmaceutical distribution and wholesale services in Sweden and Finland. Market cap of ~€170M on the Helsinki stock exchange. It operates in a regulated duopoly with >40% market share in both countries.

Rationale re: $DELFI.SP Around 1,25-1,3 SGD/share has been my anchor valuation for the business. Wrote about implications of the ME conflict and now with news of a new "Super El Niño"...prefer to take gains and see what happens from the sidelines.

Decided to close the $SES.TO and $DELFI.SP positions after a good runway from both of them. Happy about that. Already researching new ideas to deploy the excess capital.