Brian Summerfield
13.7K posts

Brian Summerfield
@bdsummerfield
Restoring U.S. Manufacturing | Founder @ CSS – Ops, Lean, CAPEX, Turnaround, Exit Prep | Christ-Powered. Empty the Tank.


This is non-sense. PE only makes money when they make a company more valuable. Debt paydown is almost always a small portion of the return. While sometimes cost reductions make a company more valuable, generally business buyers are pretty smart. They aren't going to pay up for a business that has been stripped. They will pay up for business that show top line growth, shifts to segments with more recurring revenue, etc. Most PE investments focus on growth. The idea that PE isn't focused enough on the long term is truly wrong. Talk to anyone that has worked in a public company and there is intense focus on simply the next quarter. When they get to PE they are amazed at the focus on 3-5 years out. And BTW, even if we are going to sell in 3-5 years we also have to make investments so the next buyer has a good return in their 3-5 year hold after that. Way less short term focused. Should we focus on 10-20 years out? While this sounds good, many investments focused on those types of time horizons are just a waste of money. Who knows what the world will look like in 20 years. If an investment can't be justified over the next 5 years then most times it is just a bad investment. I am sure there are limited exceptions but I am very skeptical. The bottom line is PE only makes money if they build better businesses. Not every PE firm is successful and even the successful ones have deals that don't work. But there are also public companies and founder owned businesses that fail. The success and returns of PE suggest that overall they are building better businesses and that is good for society as a whole.

JUST IN: Bolt CEO Ryan Breslow fired the company’s entire HR team because they were “creating problems that didn’t exist.”



Since everyone is arguing about whether Private Equity is good or evil, I want to say we shouldn’t have rosy glasses here. A decent amount of what PE does is very destructive long-term. That’s far from every deal or team though. Some of these companies grow a ton organically and create great jobs & payouts for investors and employees. But many destroy businesses LT. There’s an inherent mismatch where medium term profit maximization results in things that are actually bad for the consumer experience and ultimately the business long term. That 3-7 year exit timeline vs operating on a 20 year timeline eventually strips many businesses of what made them great for the sake of short term margin expansion. Let’s get real guys - there’s so many silly costs that get cut & expenditures that get deferred as a result of medium-term profit maximization to pump up EV. And that doesn’t even mention consolidation of critical services like healthcare. I’ve been digging into how PE consolidation impacts pet care, funeral homes, urgent care centers, & more and it’s not something many of you should be proud of. My next piece on that is next week on @HYHNewsletter The wrong type of private equity investing is absolutely hollowing out dozens of sub-industries - particularly industries with life or death outcomes. And those guys are likely going to hell for that.



The vibes in SF feel pretty frenetic right now. The divide in outcomes is the worst I've ever seen. Over the last 5yrs, a group of ~10k people - employees at Anthropic, OpenAI, xAI, Nvidia, Meta TBD, founders - have hit retirement wealth of well above $20M (back of the envelope AI estimation). Everyone outside that group feels like they can work their well-paying (but <$500k) job for their whole life and never get there. Worse yet, layoffs are in full swing. Many software engineers feel like their life's skill is no longer useful. The day to day role of most jobs has changed overnight with AI. As a result, 1. The corporate ladder looks like the wrong building to climb. Everyone's trying to align with a new set of career "paths": should I be a founder? Is it too late to join Anthropic / OpenAI? should I get into AI? what company stock will 10x next? People are demanding higher salaries and switching jobs more and more. 2. There’s a deep malaise about work (and its future). Why even work at all for “peanuts”? Will my job even exist in a few years? Many feel helpless. You hear the “permanent underclass” conversation a lot, esp from young people. It's hard to focus on doing good work when you think "man, if I joined Anthropic 2yrs ago, I could retire" 3. The mid to late middle managers feel paralyzed. Many have families and don't feel like they have the energy or network to just "start a company". They don't particularly have any AI skills. They see the writing on the wall: middle management is being hollowed out in many companies. 4. The rich aren’t particularly happy either. No one is shedding tears for them (and rightfully so). But those who have "made it" experience a profound lack of purpose too. Some have gone from <$150k to >$50M in a few years with no ramp. It flips your life plans upside down. For some, comparison is the thief of joy. For some, they escape to NYC to "live life". For others still, they start companies "just cuz", often to win status points. They never imagined that by age 30, they'd be set. I once asked a post-economic founder friend why they didn't just sell the co and they said "and do what? right now, everyone wants to talk to me. if i sell, I will only have money." I understand that many reading this scoff at the champagne problems of the valley. Society is warped in this tech bubble. What is often well-off anywhere else in the world is bang average here. Unlike many other places, tenure, intelligence and hard work can be loosely correlated with outcomes in the Bay. Living through a societally transformative gold rush in that environment can be paralyzing. "Am I in the right place? Should I move? Is there time still left? Am I gonna make it?" It psychologically torments many who have moved here in search of "success". Ironically, a frequent side effect of this torment is to spin up the very products making everyone rich in hopes that you too can vibecode your path to economic enlightenment.

What's your favorite film score of all time?

In Collateral (2004), the alley scene shows Tom Cruise performing a precise Mozambique Drill: two shots to the torso followed by one to the head.



Someone I’ve admired in business for a few years became an accounting client this week. I’m geeking out and honored to be in their corner.






What is a "perfect" movie you can watch over and over?











