MonkeyGeniusCapital

$CTMX priced much lower than i thought, Gugg update Guggenheim raised the firm's price target on CytomX Therapeutics to $15 from $10 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm, which is updating its model and estimates following the company's recent disclosure of updated Phase 1 results in late-line CRC for lead asset Varseta-M, says the data for both the 8.6 and 10mg/kg dose levels exceeds the benchmarks for current standard of care options by "a wide margin," which justifies increasing its view of the odds of success to 60% from 30% previously.

Hard to not sell $USO here. Oil can’t stay expensive…we’ve all seen Landman

New year new catalysts: here's a list I am thinking about. $GOSS - $IKT in PAH expected ph3 in Feb: Bull case 1) imatinib works (IMPRES dropouts yea but also benefits huge and reinforced through smaller trial last year) 2) Seralutinib worked in a subgroup (FCIII) 3) the trial is enrolling people in the subgroup Seralutinib worked 4) Seralutinib shows better potency in vitro compared to imatinib for Mouse and human models 5) maybe some retention in the lung (rats, yes this isn't huge but it's more retentive than imatinib imo). 6) based on the reductions in mPAP, the 6MWD in ph2 was under the expectations But in a nutshell, the argument for success is based on trial design. We know that 6MWD is a biasable test (lower scores aren’t subject to a ceiling effect). And they have a baseline 375m vs 400M from before. Simply put, If you believe the effect size is real, it will be amplified in phase 3. Need 20m delta Why it fails 1) imatinib doesn’t work inhaled - AVTE failed 2) AVTE failed even with fairly high systemic occupancy (use the PK curves and the IC50 concentration for imatinib at each receptor) 3) the OLE data for Seralutinib is kinda trash (switch patients don't do better) Patients didn’t improve after switching drugs on PVR. Drug is active. Drugs may not be active enough. Lotta smart people short this name. I put POS at ~33%. $IKT is oral imatinib and likely better readout as it's currently ~400M in market cap for 100% of a ph3 readout in 2028. $GOSS is 800M for 40% of the drug currently. If sera hits 20M and stat sig, $IKT has A) poC and b) can say oral would be better.