beau

@choffstein Yes same, does being fooled by randomness pilled help with investment performance? 🤔

i was so fooled-by-randomness pilled in my youth that even when i have an investment thesis and it plays out *exactly* how I thought it would – and I profit from it – i still end up thinking, "that was probably luck."

The point of diversification isn’t to maximize returns, it’s to survive uncertainty.

Asset allocation isn’t just about stocks vs bonds. Alternative strategies like managed futures can smooth returns when traditional markets are turbulent.

@BowTiedVitamins how come mg malate instead of glycinate etc.?

@plantmath1 $RDFN hasn't consistently made money on EBITDA basis yet (except for the extraordinary 2020) - not sure when appetite for unprofitable growth will return

$RDFN touching pre-COVID (2018 & early 2020) prices. The real estate market is still red hot but all real estate tech stocks have been killed.

valuation and financials look attractive - pro-forma EV/2021 EBITDA ~6.5x and adj EBITDA margin YTD 30%

reform in 2019 enabled out-of-state investment in CO cannabis, and Schwazze is rolling up cannabis operators in the state, with a team experienced in M&A. 7 acquisitions YTD

While MSOs often get the most attention, Schwazze ($SHWZ) is a cannabis operator focused on Colorado (and recently New Mexico) which seems like an interesting investment Colorado is the second-largest cannabis market in the US (~2.2B), relatively mature, yet still growing

@Logos_LP they've probably transitioned from P/S (for hypergrowth) to EV/EBITDA, where ~20-30 seems reasonable (so, ZM is getting there)

Serious question: At what multiple do stocks like $zm $coup etc. get interesting? 8x fwd revs? 5x? $tdoc's multiple is now below 2015 levels, p/b is now below 0.98x.

@dailydirtnap @jsmian 🤯

Gotta give props to @jsmian

@buccocapital hyperconnect deal seems underwhelming?

@J45122 valuation is definitely attractive but their operations don't seem quite as tight as verano/gti (perhaps because their team is very finance-y)

I've been out of $AYRWF since Aug 4 - this move today has me looking back at it, but I got to say, I am feeling pretty uncertain about them rn. The FL turnaround has not been as sharp as they were projecting, and BRND showed that they can miss on M&A. Not looking as undefeatable

@adam_grossman1 @aaronvalue @yongecity yea listening to their call, it doesn't sound like their operations are as tight as verano, trulieve, or gti. jon interrupts his team on almost every question. they seem to be more affected by supply chain issues/delays compared to the other top tier msos.

@aaronvalue @yongecity And this is precisely what makes a market $GTBIF -> proven track record has afforded them a premium multiple $VRNOF -> went public at the worst time and nearly every shareholder is in the red + dealing with a big share unlock $AYRWF -> execution risk but cheapest of the bunch

Henceforth it is decreed: $AYRWF should trade for less than 6 times EV/EBITDA on forward numbers ahead of 100% growth. So, it shall be done. (Thank you sellers!)

@ScottW_Grizzle @ycharts also somewhat company specific - they reported earnings on 11/11 and expect headwinds for the next 6 months given exposure to mature markets, whereas the MSOs are more exposed to growing/new markets

Based on stock performance, market is acting like they think legalization would be negative for $GRWG. Does this make sense?

@Investing_Lion I have owned all of these at one point and the only one I still own is $ETSY - e-commerce tailwind with network effect accelerated by covid (perhaps the same hypothesis applies to $FVRR but $ETSY is more proven)

In your opinion, which "covid stock" will surprise and outperform the most in the next 5 years: $TDOC $PTON $ZM $FVRR $ETSY $PINS And why?

@richard_chu97 @Atreidesmgmt ah cool!

@beauchao @Atreidesmgmt This was after 13Fs were filed sec.gov/Archives/edgar…

Current Holdings (by allocation): $GDRX $TTD $ROKU $ZI $DDOG $SNOW $CVNA $OPRX $CRWD $LINK $NEWU.V $EXPI

@richard_chu97 @Atreidesmgmt didn't see GDRX on #tabholdings_tab_link" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">whalewisdom.com/filer/abdiel-c… - did you see it somewhere else?

I will publish a full Q3 update at the end of September with performance and allocations. Until then, I’m not planning on making any major changes currently. Also was happy to see Abdiel and @Atreidesmgmt take sizable positions in $GDRX recently. Lots of respect for both funds.

@plantmath1 traded yesterday at 1.5

@beauchao Solid strategy, what was the premium for that

$MAPS at $12, unreal. Earnings report gave me everything I wanted, reaffirmed all 2021 guidance, DOJ subpoena closed with no action, new iOS ordering option. Now 5.9x 2022 gross profit with 30% EBITDA margins growing US at 55%. Either I missed something or this is due to SPAC.

@maybebullish Tencent seems like the most attractive one considering WeChat's indispensable role