Brandon Beckhardt

There’s been a lot of noise and confusion around prediction markets lately. We can’t let a few bad actors taint the entire space. There's a lot of misinformation right now, so we took out a four-page Washington Post spread to set the record straight. Here's the reality: the headlines about insider trading, war, and death markets are overwhelmingly about Polymarket, whose business is primarily (90%+ of all volume) offshore and based in Panama. Regulated exchanges - like Kalshi, Robinhood, and CME - operate under U.S. law with strict safeguards, which include: 1. Requirements to ban insider trading and manipulation 2. Bans on war markets 3. Bans on death markets 4. Requirements to verify customers and know who's trading to avoid bad actors If you want insider trading and war markets to stop, target the source - not the regulated U.S. exchanges.

Kalshi offered New York a plan that would've brought in $10B over five years for public schools and healthcare. Hochul's response is to ban them to protect the casino lobby. politicians loosing the plot. Makes you wonder what really motivates these politicians 🤔🤔

Let me break this down for you guys Jarvis style - Kalshi's case v. Hochul's case. Kalshi's case is basically this. There's this thing called federal preemption, which means that there are are some areas where the federal government has EXCLUSIVE jurisdiction over regulating something where Congress decides that it would be way more efficient to have one set of rules instead of 50. (For example, Gavin Newsom can't mint a California Dollar with his face on it. Probably.) Congress passed this law that governs this federal agency called the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. That's the agency that has exclusive jurisdiction over EVENT CONTRACTS, which are contracts related to whether something HAPPENS or not - the precise language in federal law for event contracts is any contract "dependent on the occurrence, nonoccurrence, or the extent of the occurrence of an event or contingency associated with a potential financial, economic, or commercial consequence." If you have a contract like that, go get regulatory approval from the CFTC and you're good. Kalshi did that. In other words, EVENT CONTRACTS are legal and they are subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of the CFTC, which means states don't get to mess with them. Hochul's case is basically this: The casinos paid me to ban you. So.

BASED ON THIS ARTICLE KALSHI OFFERED NEW YORK $10 BILLION IN TAX REVENUE OVER 5 YEARS TO FUND PUBLIC SCHOOLS AND HEALTHCARE IN RETURN NEW YORK SUED THEM TO SHUT ALL PREDICTION MARKETS DOWN SPECIAL INTEREST CASINOS CONTINUE THE DEMISE OF NEW YORK wsj.com/tech/new-york-…

FAFO

Federal oversight exists for a reason. We stand with @Kalshi in defending the role of federally regulated markets and the need for clear, consistent rules across jurisdictions that support innovation.

Kalshi followed the law Governor, the federal one which under the Supremacy Clause of the Constitution supersedes state law. Your states own laws once would have considered binary swaps and stock options on Wall Street to be gambling. But the case, Board of Trade v. Christie Grain & Stock Co (1905) settled that swaps even without delivery were financial instruments and not gambling. Dickson v. Uhlmann Grain Co., 288 U.S. 188 (1933) said singular acts did not replace and preempt state law unless they were clear and explicit and it’s why Congress later created: -Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) -Commodity Futures Trading Commission Act of 1974 -and the Dodd–Frank Act of 2010 To put under unified federal authority financial regulations in this country, expressly. Noting that the CFTC has the sole and exclusive jurisdiction over these financial assets, including **expressly** event contracts as outlined in Dodd-Frank. So just like California or Texas cannot decide that stock options are regulated gambling, you cannot create an arbitrary patchwork just because you disagree with the federal regulation.

🚨 NY GOVERNOR HOCHUL PROTECTING INCUMBENTS OVER CONSUMERS. New York is trying to shut down all prediction markets.  Kathy Hochul has taken $588,830 from traditional casino and sports betting interests, which benefit directly when new competitors get shut down. Jacobs Family: $180k Bluhm/Rush Street: $111k Caesars: $6k Sports betting alliance: $6k Tioga Downs: $73k She takes the casino money… Then she goes after the platforms that threaten the casino monopoly. It’s not about illegal gambling or “protecting consumers”. It’s about protecting the donors who bought access. Pay-to-play isn’t a theory in New York. It’s the business model.

@GovKathyHochul Willing buyer pays willing seller price > a sportsbook controlling market prices Kalshi allows rec bettors get better prices

.@BrianQuintenz on the "extraordinary hedging utility" Kalshi provides. "Imagine another kind of hedging opportunity where you can make 13x in seven months by nothing happening."

Kalshi markets are becoming financial infrastructure: Traders are finding edge Institutions are hedging risk Perps are scaling fast And everyone checks the odds to see what's next

Not at all surprising to see leaked chats of the coordinated smear campaigns against Kalshi starting to surface. Overseen by none other than William LeGate, Growth Lead at Polymarket

@TheNotoriousSKi Well well well, what a surprise

Really cool to see more and more people across the political aisle reference our prediction market odds. Remember, when people call for banning trading on elections, they are banning a critical data source that helps inform our politics, whether you're a trader or not

@krystalball @AbdulElSayed @hasanthehun Great to see Breaking Points using prediction markets 🤲They'll add a ton of context to the midterm coverage.

On April 6th @AbdulElSayed had only a 27% chance of winning the Democratic Primary. On April 7th he campaigned with @hasanthehun. Look at what happens to his odds of victory after that moment. The establishment thought elevating and attacking Hasan would help them but it only helped clarify for Dem voters which candidate actually stood for human rights.

What about talking to female traders who approach prediction markets as a financial asset class? The ones who spend hours researching markets, building models, and only trading when they have high conviction, not just treating it as entertainment?! I think that would make for a far more useful piece of journalism

Don’t bet on us. Invest IN us. Chip in $5: secure.actblue.com/donate/q3abdul

🚨 BREAKING: Democrats have re-gained ground in the American Power Index to the levels before the Virginia Supreme Court nullified their redistricting effort. Republicans only have a +1.60 advantage now

better hed: Kalshi Emerges as Competitive Threat to Major Exchange

Institution places a Kalshi hedge on the Fed decision because it's cheaper than CME. Possible headlines: - Institution hedges against Fed hike on Kalshi - Kalshi Fed hedge is cheaper than CME - Institutional adoption is growing on Kalshi Actual: "Your car didn't get wrecked today so you missed a quadruple payoff."