Nonezz&Advisor
64 posts

Nonezz&Advisor
@bekafehrman
Macro & Crypto | On-chain research | Only alpha


AI BUBBLE IS BIGGER THAN DOTCOM. Shiller CAPE: 42.32. Last seen in 1999. Buffett Indicator: 229.9% vs 146% in 2000. 1.6x worse. Top 10 stocks: 41% of S&P vs 23% in 2000. Margin debt: $1.28T = 4.1% GDP vs 2.7% in 2000. Margin debt peaked Jan 2026 and dropped 4.5% in two months. S&P dropped 5.9% in the same window. Last time margin debt rolled over before the market? 2000. 2007. In 2000, Lucent helped finance customers who bought Lucent equipment. In 2026, Nvidia invests in companies that buy Nvidia chips. Same loop. Different label. Buffett is sitting on $325B in cash and selling stocks. He is reading the same math. One bad earnings report on AI spending and the repricing starts. With 41% of the index in the same trade, there is nowhere clean to hide. When the next move becomes clear, I'll post it here first. Follow and turn notifications on.



















