Benjamin Chern

@peanut_bettor @goldenpants013 @Sports__Proj Crazy hot streak of questions for the pod. Top 5 question asker for sure

@goldenpants013 @Sports__Proj What age are you reasonably confident (75% CI) you could beat up every person in the world that is that age or younger? So for the age of 5, you have to be able to beat up every 5 through 0 year old. How much does it change if you cut out the top 5% of outlier sized kids?

Hi all - this week we are making an episode on managing risk on prediction markets in all forms. (not getting knight capital-ed, combo exposure, capital return, adverse selection, etc..) If you have questions on this topic or in general for me and @Sports__Proj leave them below

@goldenpants013 @Sports__Proj an edge, what’s your thoughts on betting aggressively and risking your bankroll early

@goldenpants013 @Sports__Proj In tournament poker, people sometimes shove early for a chance to double, making a deep run easier. In sports this would look like betting above Kelly until the bankroll is large enough to justify quitting a job/dedicating large amount of time to betting. Assuming you have…

@halfkelly I would love to survey a bunch of casual bettors and ask whether it feels better to lose to a book or to an "expert". On one hand, nobody likes giving their money to a corporation but the feeling of losing to another human might sway things

@Sports__Proj @goldenpants013 I think the best segment in the past few weeks has been the book recommendations. Always fun to hear what ppl find informative/entertaining. Started the book do androids dream of electric sheep, decent so far!

@benjamin_chern @goldenpants013 Rare person who doesn't like the tick size talk. Maybe we work in some backtesting discussion for Mr. Chern.

Good article - most people's idea of math breaks when the distribution is bounded (e.g. 0 <= P <= 1).

@Sports__Proj @goldenpants013 I stg if I hear another segment about tick sizes im skipping directly to the bayesian updates and turning off the pod

@goldenpants013 we should talk 40-50 minutes about how this applicable to tick sizes I think the people are dying to hear that.

@peanut_bettor add @goldenpants013 and @Sports__Proj. Gotta imagine GP plays with heart but I can't see him as anything more than a role player. SP on the other hand...

Gambling twitter personalities as hoopers.

@goldenpants013 @Sports__Proj @alter_clay Once polymarket fully rolls out to the US, will we see competition from Kalshi to lower maker and/or taker fees? If so where do you see the long term equilibrium for fees and rebates in both the high competition and low competition cases

This week @Sports__Proj and I are recording a podcast with one of the most profitable (+$1.6M) public traders on Kalshi - @alter_clay Drop some Qs in the comments for this PM crusher!

@halfkelly kinda makes sense? people wanna talk about the game live and this is just another chatroom like streameast chat/reddit live thread. I think the more interesting data would to compare it to youtube live chat and count messages/min

this is actually super interesting

@CalvinAndHobo guess not all of us can be haralabob :(

@benjamin_chern I'm not even close, compared to some other bettors.

Does there come a point where I have the emotional maturity to not want to leak an edge, in order to own someone on the internet? Or does that devil remain on my shoulder forever?

@goldenpants013 @Sports__Proj @LazyBrain64 Big picture, what are the methods u use to deal with inflated/deflated stats due to strength of schedule. I.e a team played a few bad teams in a row and therefore have better stats than otherwise (playing against league average teams)

This week @Sports__Proj and I are going to be joined by @LazyBrain64, a professional basketball originator who started his career at a respected sports trading desk. His career arc: respectable finance job -> PHD -> sports trader -> pro gambler. Leave some questions below!

@Sports__Proj time to apply for a NYC food cart license to really sell the bit

With all of today's prediction market chatter I am excited to preview a piece coming out next month that I'll be featured in. Our stories are important.

@goldenpants013 know nothing abt golf but ill buy yes at 33c. Summer is around the corner and it sounds like you gave up the topo chico for flat water so thats gotta be signal for healthier lifestyle. Idk just lock in and hit the ball can't be that hard

@benjamin_chern I don't remember that lol - I think people would be snapping up 10 cent Nos. But I feel like people would have to think about a 67c no if they have played w/ me recently. They would still probably buy. So that's how I landed on that as the optimistic price lol

Q1 Update on My Golf Nobody Cares About: Handicap: 4.4 -> 3.7 My optimistic fair for getting to 0.0 this year: 33c Only part of my game that is at a scratch level rn is probably my around the green play. Swing is getting better but I am having trouble feeling comfortable making a full turn. Feels kinda out of control. So I hit few real headscratchers each round still even when I am playing well. Like today I played great most of the round, but cold topped a drive into the marsh right in front of the tee box out of nowhere and made a 7 on the hole. Putting needs improving but I am working on that. I will say it's a lot of fun to actually try and get better w/ the time I have. There are some signs of life from the game though - I am not drawing dead imo.

@goldenpants013 @Sports__Proj Have you heard of newcomb’s paradox? If so are you choosing box A or box B

Alright this week @Sports__Proj and I are interviewing a guest that’s operated in the shadows until now. On one hand, exciting. On the other, hard to get questions for. So a teaser of our guest: - Left a 9 year law career to gamble pro - One AP play involved buying a lumberyard - describes himself as a rort finder - Profitably operating on PMs and Traditional SBs as of rn So if you can think of some good questions - please send in the comments

@halfkelly can't wait till @goldenpants013 and @Sports__Proj run out of topics and pivot to an entire episode of bayesian updates on risk takers. GP and SP are so non confrontational that they wouldn't argue with each other tho lol

Any AP message board worth anything will eventually devolve into a heated discussion over something that every normal person in the world takes completely for granted.

@joebarnard Can you give me feedback on a project writeup I did a while back? benjaminchern.com/2024-08-22-Pia…

Having timestamped proof that you can do hard things today might help you in 5-10 years. Make a YouTube video or a project writeup(with photos) on X/Medium/etc. It doesn't need to get views, it needs a trustworthy timestamp on it, and enough detail to prove you learned something

IDK what the future of AI looks like, but I think it's worth publicly documenting your skills ASAP. The better these systems get, the harder it will be to tell who can actually learn things, and who is regurgitating an LLM response.

@goldenpants013 @Sports__Proj To clarify, someone who is equally qualified for a tech/data science/actuary role as a professional bettor

@goldenpants013 @Sports__Proj Would you say that trying to be a professional sportsbettor/PM trader is +EV lifetime in comparison to focusing on traditional career paths? Feels like gambling has low career longevity + it would be hard to pivot to working corporate after losing edge

Looking for some questions for tomorrows podcast. Will be me and @Sports__Proj riding solo. Got a good main topic and some juicy news, we just need some spicy questions to top it off