Clay Alter

1.7K posts

Clay Alter

Clay Alter

@alter_clay

Professional sports gambler

Katılım Kasım 2021
132 Takip Edilen1.1K Takipçiler
GoldenPants13
GoldenPants13@goldenpants013·
This week @Sports__Proj and I are recording a podcast with one of the most profitable (+$1.6M) public traders on Kalshi - @alter_clay Drop some Qs in the comments for this PM crusher!
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Peanut
Peanut@peanut_bettor·
Say you’re 5’9 for purposes of this Q. You can spin a wheel that has a 65% chance of increasing your height by 3 inches. But a 35% chance of decreasing it by 2 inches. You can spin the wheel up to 3 times. Do you spin it once? If it goes shorter do you spin again? What about a third time?
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Clay Alter
Clay Alter@alter_clay·
@ChelsElaina In that case I change my mind and would lean cruise. Especially so if part of the family going includes kids since they have so many activities for them.
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Chelsea
Chelsea@ChelsElaina·
@alter_clay With family and we all kind of split up and do our own thing as needed, play cards etc so that’s not a problem. We’d honestly probably be more “stuck” not on a boat as we’d probably have one rental car etc
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Chelsea
Chelsea@ChelsElaina·
Do I do a 7 day cruise from LA down to Cabo or do I do a 3 day and explore California for a couple of days instead of the longer cruise? 🚢
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Clay Alter
Clay Alter@alter_clay·
@PlusEVAnalytics Could that be too high and DK is juicing the shit out of their numbers yes. But point is it’s at best 2000 to 1 and AI didn’t have a real clue
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Clay Alter
Clay Alter@alter_clay·
@PlusEVAnalytics Here ya go. Approximated bogey free % from books and the golfers in each tier
Clay Alter tweet media
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Clay Alter
Clay Alter@alter_clay·
Someone explain to me how anyone but Kalshi trading is cool accepting .1 cent spreads. Are institutional market makers not only not paying fees but getting a % of taker fees?
Clay Alter tweet media
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Clay Alter
Clay Alter@alter_clay·
@RufusPeabody Typing in an extra decimal is a pain. Number of errors everyone makes is about to go way up
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Rufus
Rufus@RufusPeabody·
I strongly disagree. I've been requesting deci-cents on golf for a long time. Deci-cents hurts top-down market makers and rewards better pricing. The game is no longer about queue position on something a square 6th grader could price because it's trading at 1c/2c. On live, yeah, it probably hurts margins for MMs pulling odds from sportsbooks. Aside from the courtsiding issue, it's very easy to price something at -9900/+4900. It's just speed and queue management. Short term maybe liquidity dips, but long run you get more competitive prices. You say recs don't care about price but a rec does care about 499/1 instead of 99/1. And your argument about taking being harder is easily solved via a configurable "slippage" feature that many orderbooks already have. If done right, it should feel no different to recs. I'll be more active in live MM now that more than 5% of the field is tradeable and the competition is about having better prices, not being first in queue at 98c laying a golfer DraftKings has at 80/1. Also, 40 million contracts sounds like a lot, but when most of that volume is taking at 1c, actual bet volume from takers is much smaller than other markets trading 40 mill.
GoldenPants13@goldenpants013

I think this post highlights an issue. Adhi is very smart and someone I respect a lot. So when he says that deci-cent for golf is one of the "most requested" features. Or he's hearing from everyone "golf is broken on Kalshi", I think it mirrors what a lot of smart people at PMs MAY be hearing. But WHO is saying it's broken, and WHO is requesting these features? I can tell you who isn't saying this. 1. Recs 2. Market Makers who are staying up LIVE which is 80% of volume and all that matters. Pregame is useless. 3. The people counting the money at Kalshi. THE VALSPAR CHAMPIONSHIP - a tournament a PGA Tour players don't even care about. Was the 3rd most traded event during the first week of March Madness. This change to deci-cent hurts: 1. Recs who want to bet live - they will fail to get their bet at an exponentially higher rate and they DONT CARE ABOUT PRICE. 2. The valuable MMs (ones who are up live doing the lords work, dodging courtsiders etc..) 3. Kalshi So it helps...me 2 years ago? This would have been a really great update for me and like 10 other sharp golf bettors back when we were 100% taking. And it helps the penny jumpers ofc.

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Circles Off 🔨
Circles Off 🔨@CirclesOffHQ·
We brought back @ShipTheJustice for another Circles Off interview with @robpizzola 🎧 Here’s what they discuss: 🔵 Transition from trader to bettor 🔵 Common mistakes bettors make 🔵 Winning process 🔵 Much more 🎥 Check out the full video now!
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GoldenPants13
GoldenPants13@goldenpants013·
New episode of the podcast dropped. @Sports__Proj and I are joined by @Landtrader8375 for his first EVER pod appearance. Alex has a wild story that sees him leave a 9-year legal career to become a RORT expert and lumber baron. Thanks to Alex for making us his 1st stop! Links⬇️
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GoldenPants13
GoldenPants13@goldenpants013·
Alright this week @Sports__Proj and I are interviewing a guest that’s operated in the shadows until now. On one hand, exciting. On the other, hard to get questions for. So a teaser of our guest: - Left a 9 year law career to gamble pro - One AP play involved buying a lumberyard - describes himself as a rort finder - Profitably operating on PMs and Traditional SBs as of rn So if you can think of some good questions - please send in the comments
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Clay Alter
Clay Alter@alter_clay·
@goldenpants013 @Sports__Proj Do large (institutional) market makers on Kalshi I get rake back? I assume that’s what allows them to post massive liquidity with 1 cent spreads? Feels unfair without making it a blanket program for all market makers above X size
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GoldenPants13
GoldenPants13@goldenpants013·
Looking for some questions for tomorrows podcast. Will be me and @Sports__Proj riding solo. Got a good main topic and some juicy news, we just need some spicy questions to top it off
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Captain Jack Andrews
Captain Jack Andrews@capjack2000·
🗣️Vibe coding is all the rage. People are using it to build businesses and automate everything. But can it beat a sportsbook? I decided to find out for myself by building an NHL SOG model from scratch.
Captain Jack Andrews tweet media
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Clay Alter
Clay Alter@alter_clay·
I believe @Kalshi handled this well if everyone was indeed made whole. The issue is this market was mostly meaningless in predictive value with the death carve out.
Tarek Mansour@mansourtarek_

As an exchange, we resolve the market according to the rules, even when there is disagreement with the resolution. I understand many of you are frustrated about the Khamenei market, and I want to clear up a few things along with steps we have taken to improve: The market rules were not changed. The death carveout and settlement based on last-traded-price were part of the published market rules from the outset (see the screenshot from the rules, which can also be found in our official filing from 2025 on the CFTC website). The death carveout was also always shown on the market page (see market page below). Once the strikes on Iran started, we added the “Green Box” to further highlight the death carveout in the UI (this is not a rule change, just a highlight of the rules). We settled according to the rules. Traders were paid based on the last traded price. Some traders who held YES feel like they should have won (as in the market should have settled to YES). But the rules clearly stated that the market would not settle to YES in the event of death: traders expect us to settle the market based on the rules and we have to apply the rules consistently for both YES and NO holders; changing settlement because one side is unhappy would break trust in the exchange (imagine you held NO and you read the rules, but then we decided to settle contrary to the rules). Death carveouts are important; as a federally regulated prediction market, we are required and feel it is important not to enable direct profiting from war, assassination, terrorism, or other violent outcomes. No trader lost money on this market. While the rules were clear and we tried our best to highlight them, traders vocalized they were not prominent enough. We heard you, and we decided to reimburse out of pocket for all fees and all net losses from trading in the market: 1. If you sold for a net loss before settlement, we reimbursed you for that net loss and 2. if you didn’t recoup your position cost during settlement, we paid you the difference so you get your full position cost back. You can find reimbursements under "Your activity" in the app and website. No trader ended net-negative after our reimbursements. Kalshi did not profit on this market. We do not stand to benefit from one resolution or the other. We earn fees from facilitating trades. For this market, we reimbursed all fees back to users. We also reimbursed net losses users incurred on the market out of pocket, so no trader ended net negative. As a result, Kalshi incurred a substantial loss to make users whole. We will improve. We learned a lot from this market. We are updating how we present similar markets (e.g., those with a death carveout or where a death might be a likely scenario) so traders can see the exception more clearly before they trade. We will surface the exception in the title and at the top of the market page. We also recognize that the first iteration of the Green Box warning created confusion; we revised it and reimbursed net losses for the market. Going forward, we are implementing a tighter review process for UI highlights. The best part about Kalshi is you all and I'm sorry for the disappointment. We'll improve, thank you for bearing with us.

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Clay Alter
Clay Alter@alter_clay·
@wop111222333 @ramenguysage @grpwins Current odds are 5.5 to 1 original was 1000 to 1. Improvement in odds is almost 200x. So a cashout of 100x is a good deal for FanDuel. So yea 100x cashout makes sense to offer. It’s all relative to how much the bet pays out and what the chance of it winning is.
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wooooppppp
wooooppppp@wop111222333·
@ramenguysage @grpwins Ur smoking dope if u think they offered 100x on this and charlotte not even winning the division at the moment nor are the favorite to win the division
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George “Riley” Panagakis
You guys know my policy, whatever I write in the Notebook I bet and any bet that wins I show the betslip as proof. I still have $50 at 1000-1 that Charlotte wins the division.
George “Riley” Panagakis tweet media
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Jacob Gramegna
Jacob Gramegna@jacob_gramegna·
@alter_clay @CirclesOffHQ @KirkEvans0 @gfienberg17 @robpizzola @Kalshi The tournament would be a lot of fun but I can almost guarantee the 9/10 seeds in the East would much rather finish 11th instead of going into the play-in Also not sure how much excitement players will have for a 1st overall pick tournament, especially those on expiring deals
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