Bermudadude

$tvtx just a reminder on Filspari. method-of-use patent expires 2030. new chemical entity exclusivity ends 2028. orphan drug exclusivity for IgAN ends 2031. orphan drug exclusivity for fsgs will end in 2033. so generics will be able to enter in 2031 for IgAN.

@Andre_AGTC not clear the stock goes up that much: 1) only indicated for patients "without nephrotic syndrome" (ie 1/3 of total FSGS patients) and 2) only indicated "to reduce proteinuria" rather than "to slow kidney function decline".

$TVTX The risk of holding through PDUFA data was well justified FILSPARI (sparsentan) is a foundational first-line therapy for IgAN With FSGS Label expansion they will target additional 30k pts without approved drug First line in both indications is a good foundation.

@adamfeuerstein Adam, you said in your last Scorecard that you expect ACACIA data in April. Why do you think it comes in April rather than later in the quarter? Thanks.

The biotech scorecard for the second quarter: 23 stock-moving events to watch statnews.com/2026/04/01/bio…

@PersimmonTI Where do you think stock goes if they miss both endpoints?

$CYTK With ACACIA topline expected any day now, here is how I’m thinking about the probabilities for Aficamten in nHCM: 65% chance AFI is stag sig on both KCCQ and pVO2 77% chance AFI is stag sig in KCCQ, but displays only a positive trend in pVO2 35% chance that AFI whiffs on both endpoints

@A_May_MD You don't think $abvx is more mispriced than $nktr?

🚨🚨🚨 The 2nd case of amlitelimab (OX40) induced Kaposi sarcoma was just disclosed by $SNY today at AAD. Somehow $NKTR is still in the double digits…*surely* the complete death of Amlitelimab would change this? Up until very recently (weeks) $SNY has *still* been projecting amlitelimab to be a $3-$5B peak sales drug in atopic derm ALONE. If Amli is discontinued (as it should be) $NKTR’s rezpeg would be slated to be the next new MoA on the market for AtD, and THE ONLY non-IL4/13 biologic besides the ineffective Nemluvio (…which is still going to be a $4B+ peak mega blockbuster despite its lack of efficacy……..) Right now, $NKTR’s efficacy vastly exceeds nemluvio’s and beats OX40’s by a healthy ~10% delta. All of that WITHOUT causing cancer. $3-$5B peak for OX40??? What’s $NKTR worth? OH! And that’s just the sales projections for AtD…I expect that soon the market will wake up to the fact that Rezpeg is a legitimate drug for alopecia areata too, which currently seems to be priced totally out of the stock. IMO $NKTR already went into the weekend the most mispriced name in my book. Now the death knell for OX40 is coming into view. $NKTR is *CLEARLY* the biggest direct beneficiary of this in the entire market. As always, I’m biased, but I’m just mind blown that this isn’t already a $100 stock. Let’s see if the market starts to accept that OX40 is finally done for. That could be explosive news for $NKTR.

@meangenebio Why do you think kirk has been selling so aggressively?

$PGEN (L) Decline driven by technical factors rather than change in fundamentals Randal Kirk, has been selling millions of shares Although updates show strong early adoption, broad payer coverage, and growing momentum, the market has not had its revenue expectations met… yet Dislocation creates opportunity

@DeepSouthDoctor Gotcha. Any idea why concensus expects flat eps on revenues up 13 pct? Thanks.

@bermudadude Not my expectation, just posting consensus estimates from Yahoo.

$RIGL - bought 33% more, just think it's stupid cheap here. FY 26/27 est. = $4.80 ($284m rev), $4.80 ($320m) MC=$482m w $155m cash, $22m L-T Debt 2026/2027 Enterprise Value/revenue = 1.0 and 0.6 - unreal value. Company wants to in-licn add'l post-Ph3 product this yr.

Fifty days ago, I started a simple experiment on TikTok. The goal was to post 100 videos in 100 days and see what happened. Honestly, I would’ve been thrilled to get to 10,000 followers by the end of it. That felt ambitious but realistic. Instead, here I am at the halfway mark with 51 videos posted, over 51,000 followers, around 757,000 likes, and over 7 million views. I’m 50 years old, had zero TikTok experience, and somehow this thing has turned into a real machine. What’s been blowing my mind is not just the growth. It’s how it happened. I didn’t hire a content strategist. I didn’t build a team. I didn’t pay some guy to teach me the algorithm. I’ve done this with AI as a real creative partner. Not in the cheesy “AI wrote my posts” way. I mean actually using it to think with me. To analyze what was working, why certain videos got shared, why others got saved, which hooks were hitting, which ones were flat, what kind of language made people stop, and what kind of language made them feel seen. We’ve gone deep into the psychology of it, the structure of it, the numbers, the emotion, all of it. And that part has been especially fun for me because my background is so analytical. I’ve worked in investment banking, private equity, hedge funds, startups. I’ve spent years looking for signals, patterns, edge. I’ve lived in more than 20 cities, traveled to more than 70 countries, speak four languages, and built a coaching business around communication and human connection. So in a weird way, all of that led here. This feels like the first time all those different parts of me are being used at once - the analyst, the storyteller, the teacher, the pattern-spotter, the guy obsessed with what makes people feel something. The biggest insight so far is that my best content doesn’t just “spot patterns.” It does something deeper. It names inner experiences people feel but can’t articulate. That’s the unlock. That’s when people stop scrolling. That’s when they share something with a friend and say, “this.” That’s when they follow. Somewhere along the way, I realized my brand is not really “communication coach,” at least not in the way I used to think about it. It’s more like: I name the hidden pattern, give the hard reframe, and make deeply perceptive people feel seen. That’s why this whole thing has me so fired up. It’s not just that the experiment is working. It’s that I can feel something bigger happening here. One man, one AI partner, 51 videos, 51,000 followers in 50 days - and we’re only halfway through the original challenge. I genuinely think this is one of the most interesting creative experiences of my life.

How old do I look? Be honest. My love language is: words of affirmation Brutal honesty in the comments 👇

@Andre_AGTC @KingachillesE Highly unlikely $mlys will get a RTF. They submitted the NDA before the end of the year. FDA is required to communicate an RTF by day 60. On the other hand, an acceptance (along with PDUFA date) has to be communicated by day 74. (Day 74 Letter).

@KingachillesE Still time for the OSA data in q1 More concerned about FDA letter following the NDA. Should be received by Mar 5. I expect $MLYS will announce the ER upon receiving the letter. I guess it should happen by the end of the week If they receive RTF, OSA data doesn't matter

Stocks with q1 catalysts are greenish today $XENE $VRDN $RVMD $HELP Surprised $PALI is red. May have to add to help the stock

@DeepSouthDoctor Why do you think mlys has not yet reported 4q earnings?

Decided to de-lever. myself a bit as I'm off to a good start YTD. Sold $AVBP and $IDYA for moderate/minor trading profits as the R/R is less enticing as they have pre-data run-ups. Will likely hold $MLYS and $XENE through data readouts as I'm most confident about their trials.

VIBESHESH 32 — SPOTLIGHT: @JRSTECHSERV614 - Casino poker champion. - Semi-pro race car driver. - Valedictorian. - Electrical engineer. - Rapper. - Rejected Elon. - Allegedly abducted by aliens for 40 hours. And somehow… still ghosted us for 23 Vibe Seshes. This Thursday at 8PM EST, the elusive legend finally steps into the spotlight. We’re talking: - Myth vs Reality - Movement & synchronicity - Awareness in action - Bitcoin conviction - Time as an illusion - Classic songs as championships - And whether aliens prefer drag racing or circuit racing If you’ve ever heard JR cook in a Space, you know. If you haven’t? Buckle up. He said he’s in. Let’s see if he shows. Video credit: @Bitcoin_Boyz_ 🎙️ VibeSesh 32 Thursday - 8PM EST. ⏰Set your reminder. 👇

56 hours until Vibe Sesh 32. Spotlight Guest: @JRSTECHSERV614 @brunbitty @ciscosblog @7urbine @Brandon_Grant @SullyMichaelvan @SweetBiddi2 @timsaekoo @ethurgaland @NextLevBitcoin @paperstreet_inc @michelleo_21mil @Finiteenergy21

Most people perform awareness. Few actually have it. The difference shows up in behavior, not vocabulary. 33 signs that tell the difference 👇 1) Awareness of one's own reactions before acting 2) Ability to pause under pressure 3) Reduced impulsive behavior 4) Recognition that emotions shape perception 5) Regulation of the body before attempting reasoning 6) Willingness to question one's own beliefs 7) Ability to hold contradictions without panic 8) Less attachment to being right 9) Less need to convince others 10) Acceptance of uncertainty 11) Preference for honest ignorance over false certainty 12) Seeing patterns repeat across people, systems, and history 13) Understanding that incentives matter more than stated values 14) Recognition that most behavior is conditioned, not chosen 15) Understanding that identity is constructed, not discovered 16) Reduced identification with roles, labels, and groups 17) Ability to stand apart from group ideology 18) Greater restraint in speech 19) Greater care with words 20) Awareness of self-justification and rationalization 21) Willingness to take responsibility without blame 22) Acceptance of personal limits 23) No illusion of perfection or final arrival 24) Reduced interest in status, recognition, or performance 25) Increased interest in stability, clarity, and peace 26) Preference for simplicity over expansion 27) Willingness to live smaller, not louder 28) Focus on what is controllable 29) Release of fantasies about fixing or saving others 30) Comfort with solitude 31) Smaller but more stable social circle 32) Life becomes quieter, not grander 33) Identity becomes less important than behavior

@JMac_SI What was the most impactful insight, in your opinion?

Was great having our team cover $HRMY trial this week from inside the court room. Being there for the trial was amazingly insightful!

@KevinLMak Love your stuff, Kevin. Given that you went into the data with a 7pct position, how did you play this? Did you significantly increase it? How big can one prudently get on a high conviction sit like this in your opinion?

$NKTR is up from $43 (when I posted) to $71, driven by understanding/forecasting how information prices into a stock. People often talk about waiting all year for the "fat pitch". It's hard, but when you see it, you really gotta swing. It takes years of assessing many situations to be able to actually identify, beforehand, what is and isn't a fat pitch. The only way to get good at it is through hundreds of reps (and learning to recognize patterns across many situations). After that it's about execution, not analysis- or short hand "being a risk taker/PM vs an analyst", and far too many people spend far too much time thinking about the latter and not the former. A quick mental checklist: What was your position before the news? Are you more or less bullish than before? Does your position reflect that change in view? Has the risk of the situation changed? How will others likely react to this? It's getting these rare situations right that make or break an entire year of returns.

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@aditharun_ $pmvp If this were as rare as you believe how would they be able to enroll another 20-25 patients in about 4 months as they intended to do at the last update?

@aditharun_ Webinar on Pynnacle ph2 update on Sep 10, 2025. Slide 5.

Even if $PMVP's p53 Y220C reactivator rezatapopt works, there might not be enough patients for this therapy to be commercially viable. $PMVP is expected to complete enrollment in the ovarian cohort for primary analysis from phase 2 portion of their PYNNACLE pivotal study by 1Q 2026 and plans to submit NDA for platinum-resistant/refractory ovarian cancer (PROC) to FDA in 1Q27. PROC patients are necessarily on their third line or later treatment, so that shrinks the pool of patients considerably. However, even in the PROC setting, mirvetuximab soravtansine is FDA approved for FRalpha positive PROC which is ~40% of cases. That increases competition for patients. And, based on investigator choice, PROC patients can be offered any number of treatments. Of course, if a new treatment is sufficiently better, then it will take precedent. And let us assume that rezatopopt is that treatment. Now we happen upon the major roadblock for $PMVP. Rezatopopt requires p53 Y220C positive PROC disease. How common is Y220C? $PMVP never directly discloses this as far as I can tell. They comment on prevalence of p53 mutations in ovarian cancer AND Y220C overall prevalence in solid tumors. But, never on the exact population they will seek to treat. Y220C p53 in ovarian cancer seems quite uncommon from what I can tell. In cbioportal, there are 17 ovarian cancer cases with a Y220C mutation across 2519 patients. That's ~1% at best. Published analyses characterizing p53 in ovarian cancer back up this sentiment. The clinical efficacy is based on open-label no comparator trial which is tough to interpret. Their financial position is quite decent, 132M in cash, sufficient till end of 1Q27. To be long $PMVP is to make a bet on p53 Y220C PROC being prevalent enough to treat enough patients, and clinical efficacy in PROC is better than standard of care (in an open-label no control trial).