AI eating the world. Consumer discretionary behaving the same way as software stocks
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beyond mental models
1.7K posts
beyond mental models
@beyond_mental
I post investment ideas across spectrum - staples, tech, financials etc. https://t.co/hGkMNmhXa9 https://t.co/BK2CNFiLHM
Boston, MA Katılım Temmuz 2020
990 Takip Edilen1.8K Takipçiler
$TSM raising capex guidance due to N3 node capacity expansion and not due to bleeding edge is rather abnormal. Shows that there are a lot of GPUs/ASICs that need to migrate from N4/N5 node to N3 and repurposing N4/N5 tools to N3 is not along going to meet the demand.
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$NVDA just raised its revenue guide by ~20%+ and stock is up barely 2.5%.
The fear of a peak just keeps hitting the stock.
Street estimates for 2026 and 2027 is ~$750bn and Jensen just said $1tn in revenues.
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$META's revenue per employee after recent layoffs now stand at $2.5 million+ vs sub $2 million in 2019. Fastest growth among big tech.
AI should lead to massive cost tailwinds for most large cap tech names.
$META, $GOOGL, $MSFT
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Buying $NVDA at current valuation has given 150% return with no instances of drawdown.
Only thing that seems different is that buyside has already modelled in $500bn of backlogs. So numbers are not moving higher and the fear we may hit peak in 2027/28 has caused this derating.
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@TSOH_Investing $FND publicly admit that they should have pulled back on store builds much faster. They are hostage to macro but I appreciate how well they have managed through the downturn. This is the kind of stock you want to own on the other side.
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Floor & Decor Annual CapEx $FND
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@borrowed_ideas $CSGP is such a value destructive stock with a CEO that is unscrupulous. Only way out is Third Point and DEShaw launch a proxy fight and get rid of management.
Else Andy will have no oversight over him. He can burn 2bn next year, who is going to stop him.
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@beyond_mental They were saying 47% in the last two quarters but conveniently stopped mentioning core EBITDA margins this quarter lol
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CoStar's Obfuscation, and AI vulnerabilities
$CSGP
read the full piece here: mbi-deepdives.com/csgp4q25/
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Fail to understand what $CSGP is trying to achieve here. There are concerns around Homes.com gowth + AI disruption risk and market share loss for Apartments.com. By combining these two business segments, you are not helping investors to gauge health of biz
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@Speedwell_LLC But half of that growth is garbage acquisitions and combining Homes and Multi-family will make it even harder to know how fast Apartments is growing vs Homes.
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$CSGP reiterates 2026 guidance with revenue growth of 17% at the mid point
Buying back stock
Reaccelerating earnings growth
The stock is down 9% after hours….
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$BKNG also acts as merchant of record. $GOOGL never wanted to act as merchant of record even when it launched its travel offerings in search. Same will be the case with other LLMs as it brings you under the preview of regulators.
AI will take the path of least resistance.
Jerry Capital@JerryCap
"Morgan Stanley upgraded Booking Holdings to Overweight from Equal Weight and lifted its price target to $5,500 from $6,150, arguing BKNG remains central to online travel even as agentic tools evolve. The firm contends OTAs will continue to own the customer relationship, data, and merchant-of-record economics, with early agentic workflows largely redirecting traffic back to OTA apps/websites rather than disintermediating them. MS expects the industry structure to remain closer to paid search dynamics, supporting BKNG’s direct mix and long-term margin profile."
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Continue to believe that market is not giving any credit to data moats and just focusing on what can be automated.
Case in point, #Anthropic calling out $TRI as the only place to get Westlaw data.
If you have data, then you will be more insulated.
$MDB, $VEEVA, $TRI, $SNOW
beyond mental models@beyond_mental
Bernstein put out a framework to evaluate disruption risk to software companies from AI. Framework uses Automatability and Defensibility. Seems like market is only focusing on automation risk right now and does not give any credit to data moats. $CRM, $MDB, $NOW, $TEAM, $ADBE
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Anthropic hosting a presentation on Enterprise Agents and messaging coming out of #Anthropic is that they are working with software providers. Not replacing them.
Not sure if the moves in software names stick.
$CRM, $MDB, $TEAM, $WDAY
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We are in a market that shoots first and reasons later. 6% decline in $DASH is an indication of market raising odds of disruption risk.
@benthompson put out a compelling case on $DASH not being an AI loser.
An expensive stock can derate even if biz is going to be fine.
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While Fintwit is excited about dreaming up AI doomsday, $OAI is reducing its compute spend from $1.4tn to $600bn. Even if AI adoption is massive in coming 3 years, we may run into compute shortages.
$MSFT, $ORCL
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We are in a market that shoots first and reasons later. It is tough to disprove any appocalyptic AI narrative. We need a few software companies to come out and post accelerating growth due to AI. This needs to happen for a few Qs before market gains conviction.
$MDB, $SNOW
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Bernstein put out a framework to evaluate disruption risk to software companies from AI. Framework uses
Automatability and Defensibility.
Seems like market is only focusing on automation risk right now and does not give any credit to data moats.
$CRM, $MDB, $NOW, $TEAM, $ADBE
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@modestproposal1 Tariff beneficiaries have already rallied so faded after initial news. Positive take here is Trump takes off ramp ahead of midterms. He will keep talking about it but does not follow through on 301 and 232.
Beyond my pay grade but consensus view is what you mentioned above.
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Aren't we just going to get Section 122 15% tariffs for 150 days while they do 301 and 232 "investigations"
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$GOOGL's TPU and AI advantage:
Gemini 3.1 is 50% more efficient relative to GPT 5.2 and Opus 4.6 and has 2x more reasoning capabilities than Gemini Pro.
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