@LizThomasStrat Considering $TLT is down huge since rates were 5.25%, I assume if rates went back to 5.25% TLT would increase at least 10%.
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Marshy
839 posts
Now over 60% probability of a hike. And 10Y at 4.56%. Markets are already starting to test new Fed chair Warsh. Powell's term as chair ends today.
Liz Thomas@LizThomasStrat
Market pricing shows a 40% chance of a hike in 2026. That could still move higher. I don't think there's a hike coming, but the fact of the matter is, the expectation volatility upsets the risk appetite apple cart in the meantime.
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@GrindeOptions When this bubble collapses banks will be hit really hard.
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The reason why I bought $65,000 of $SOFI today is simple.
The company is performing exceptionally well and has been for quite some time now.
The stock has been oversold along with the rest of the financial industry as the rotation into AI plays has been paramount in the market lately.
I do think that the economy is strong and that’s a positive catalyst for $SOFI.
They are making more and more of their money from fee based products including invest, LPB, crypto, subscriptions and more.
I see the inclusion into the S&P 500 over the next several months (by EOY) as a massive tailwind.
Also, big business banking will be launching in the summertime and I do believe this business will be a very profitable one that drives further cross selling.
Later this year, $SOFI will be among a few other banks that will service the Trump accounts. This is big for them long term.
SOFI acquired two smaller tech businesses (UK and Canada) that will play a larger role in IPO, capital markets and the invest platform.
Overall, I think $SOFI is undervalued here and I’m taking a long term approach with a medium term price target of $40 and a long term price target of $100.
Cole Grinde@GrindeOptions
Just bought $65,000 worth of $SOFI here in the mid $15/share range because it’s undervalued.
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@AzMetalsInvest Can't fight what the market wants. Could go on a lot longer still.
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yes. for now. will likely begin greater decline after hours when dips cant get purchased.
Marshy@bgcss12
@AzMetalsInvest Dips always bought up on this.
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@MeGeeMan1 @elerianm Jerome caused this when he ignorantly said inflation was transitory. A 10 year old child knew that wasn't true.
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HUGE jump in US PPI inflation:
Powered by an eye-popping 1.4% rise in April, nearly triple the 0.5% consensus, the annual rate has hit 6% (crushing the 4.8% consensus forecast).
Core PPI followed suit, surging 1% (vs. 0.3% expected), bringing annual core inflation to 5.2% (consensus was 4.3%).
While the mapping isn't 1:1, these numbers strongly suggest that higher consumer inflation is still coming through the pipeline.
#economy #markets #inflation
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If $500 breaks on $soxx then our next stop will be $463.
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And now down 21% year to date and ytd low. Are we seeing the start of the crash with large money center banks?
George Robertson@BickerinBrattle
as have said ad nauseum only one position and it has been WFC OTM puts only WFC as it is not name specific as much as industry is expected to go under severe systemic shock - ie a crash and want a "honest" name that has broad strokes.
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@danielisdizzy Isn't that what people said about $TDOC a few years back.
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Not a bad earnings call for $HIMS despite revenue being basically flat and a net loss of $92.1M.
The real highlight was the guidance.
Q2 2026 guidance:
• Revenue between $680M and $700M
• YoY growth of 25%-28%
Full-year 2026 guidance:
• Revenue between $2.8B and $3.0B
• YoY growth of 19%-28%
Free Cash Flow also came in at $53.0M in Q1 2026 vs. $50.1M in Q1 2025.
$HIMS is not a company where you should expect massive quarter-over-quarter changes.
The long-term thesis remains intact: becoming the world’s largest consumer health platform.
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@WisemanCap How is a company doing revenues like that trading at a market cap of 30 billion? They should be pulling in 1-2 billion per quarter right now for that to make sense.
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@StockStormX @shawtyis_a_10 Considering how much it just ran, should be down much worse.
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@shawtyis_a_10 FY EBITDA guide got cut to 275-350M from 300-375M and $HIMS swung to a 92M net loss, that's the down 9
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Big whoop dee doo $HIMS missed the revenue target by 1%. How’s the stock down by 9%?
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$NKE should I put all my roth into nike and just hold it long term. Nike hasn't been this low since I was a teenager
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@bgcss12 Fair. But it’s not leaving so let’s make money on it.
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Jensen Huang just said the amount of compute needed for agentic AI has gone up 1,000%
“The amount of computation necessary for generative AI two years ago to agentic AI today has gone up one thousand percent”
No surprise hyperscalers are rapidly scaling up compute capacity
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@MasterBJones x.com/WhaleNoName/st…
Popping soon...maybe.
NoName@WhaleNoName
🚨 STOP AND LOOK AT THE CHART 🚨 This isn't the S&P 500 in dollars - this is the S&P 500 divided by M2 money supply In other words: the real value of the market, stripped of printed money Two of the biggest bubbles in history topped at the exact same zone: - Dotcom 2000 - AI Bubble 2025 After 25 years, we see the same levels and structures And the market is also pricing in a 45% chance of a move up to 8k If that's not enough - Subprime in 2007 topped at a significantly lower level and still wiped out half the market This distribution zone has never been held. Not once Meanwhile, people keep looking at this chart and remain calm. That's crazy NOTIFS ON!
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Will the market ever have a bad day again?
I'm sure it will one day but anyone who has made a bet on that since the end of March has gotten wiped out.
There has never been a bad day.
Just a few cosmetic lower closings.
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@MitchMartan98 Maybe, but most of those names are still looking really expensive.
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When semis top, and they will.
Where do you think the money is going to flow?
$IGV would be my bet.
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@Investhor_ @Hedgeye Stock market giving everyone a chance to make millions.
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@wallstengine Why would he be buying any companies if we are days away from an all time crash?
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MICHAEL BURRY SAYS HE STARTED NEW POSITION IN $MELI MERCADOLIBRE
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@Bay_Area_Sam Every ~17% dip in the last 20 years has been bought up except COVID for obvious reasons. We'll see if this bucks that trend.
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$MCD 📉 to 276$
Need to be patient with this one. It’s probably going much lower 230-250$ 🤔
Bay Area Sam@Bay_Area_Sam
$MCD 284$ PT: 334$ 🎯 (1) 284 -> 334$ (25%) (2) 284->274->334$ (75%)
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