billmo
5.2K posts



דני סיטרינוביץ', מומחה לזירה האיראנית (INSS) על תוכנית 15 הנקודות של טראמפ להסכם מול איראן: "מי שמקבלים את ההחלטות באיראן הם שורה של מפקדים, המערכת מאוד מבולגנת וקיצונית. מה שהיא לא הסכימה לוותר עליו לפני המלחמה היא בטח לא תסכים לוותר עליו עכשיו" @citrinowicz @attaliami @gidonucko1 צילום: ATTA KENARE/AFP via Getty Images


TRUMP APPROVAL FALLS TO 36%, LOWEST SINCE RETURN TO WHITE HOUSE, REUTERS/IPSOS POLL FINDS

Iran is taking another step toward becoming a military dictatorship under the direct influence of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Effectively, the Supreme Council’s powers are being absorbed under IRGC oversight, similar to the recent appointment of Rezaei as an advisor to Mojtaba. The Iranian political structure is visibly shifting. Previously, even when someone like Ahmadian held the role of secretary, the system was balanced under Khamenei and there was no active confrontation with the U.S. and Israel. Today, with Khamenei the father gone and the IRGC consolidating control over Mojtaba, the system is increasingly under direct and indirect IRGC control. The question arises again about the assassination of Ali Larijani. If the regime collapses, it wouldn’t matter, but for now it seems to be standing on its feet. Therefore, removing people who are relatively pragmatic within the very extreme landscape of the IRGC is unlikely to help in the day after the conflict. Iran is becoming both weaker in some respects and simultaneously more extreme and militarized. Looking ahead, this shift will have major implications for the country’s power structure particularly its nuclear program and for regional and global security. #IranWar















