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Bio tracker

@bio_tracker2026

Biotech investing enthusiast. Nothing I post should be considered investment advice.

Katılım Ocak 2021
120 Takip Edilen74 Takipçiler
Bio tracker
Bio tracker@bio_tracker2026·
$ACET sort of feel like the baby is being thrown out with the CD20 bath water and making this overlooked. Clinical data has been encouraging so far and still dose escalating … possible that delta gamma design is contributing to good results. Plus negative EV limits downside imo
Digital Waffle Pirate@PirateWaffle

$ACET CD20 with an inroad on lupus - both types, laugh at it fine … but it’s in the interim data and it’ll be validated further in 2026 $XBI

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Bio tracker
Bio tracker@bio_tracker2026·
If people disagree with $CABA as comp then take $ARTV not too far behind them and they have no clinical data yet (but imminent)
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Bio tracker@bio_tracker2026·
Can someone explain to me why $ACET valuation (-$50M EV) is so dislocated vs $CABA (~$350M EV based on fdmc)? I get CABA is further ahead in myositis but clinical data for ACET looks just as good or better in LN, they’re still dose escalating, and it’s allo vs auto …
Bio tracker@bio_tracker2026

(1/2) Really compelled by the $ACET set up. Data in 2025 looked promising and expectations are low. Negative EV going into a 1H update and future 2H update. Autoimmune cell Tx hearing back up, and EV sits well below comps (CABA and ARTV)

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Bio tracker
Bio tracker@bio_tracker2026·
@HHGF99 @f8434784752 @BioValues Wild card - I think 2 or 3 of the complete response patients only had complement and dsDNA remaining in SLEDAI at last follow up BUT I think they also had asterisks as assays weren’t available so assumed last visit value. Possible those were actually full dsDNA responders …
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B boy19
B boy19@HHGF99·
@f8434784752 @BioValues Also i don't see any graphics of the development of the aabs in the adicet study. Just that one saying they are still there in general but nothing about the curve. That worries me a bit that they hide this
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BioValues
BioValues@BioValues·
Continue to add $NKTX given the huge valuation gap to $ARTV and data 3 weeks out (for both). Largest position, followed by $ACET
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.@TheBiotechBear·
i swear there was a time where biotwitter had more intelligent discourse
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Bio tracker@bio_tracker2026·
@HHGF99 @f8434784752 @BioValues Coming back to this - have any company sponsored trials replicated the complete dsDNA eradication? From reading I thought it was only done in an academic studies in less advanced patients. I know other trials have shown significant removal (>90%) but didn’t see any 100%
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B boy19
B boy19@HHGF99·
@f8434784752 @BioValues That's true. I just wonder compared to the car t study of Georg Schett, where dsdna aabs were gone after 2-4 month latest in all patients, and other car t trials as well, it's really a strange result with having dsdna still there in most patients long term. I wonder why
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Bio tracker
Bio tracker@bio_tracker2026·
@thecellengineer Yeah you make a good point but ARTV also much higher value and their lead is refractory RA, which $ACET reads out 2H this year. I guess my point is I think bar is low for some degree of re-rate
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andrew
andrew@thecellengineer·
@bio_tracker2026 The difference between “further ahead” vs high PoS (relative, based on current clinical results) for a registrational trial in myositis where there is little competition and an expensive therapy to displace—is substantial. SLE/LN market is but but VERY crowded.
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Bio tracker
Bio tracker@bio_tracker2026·
@unicornbiotech Fair lol. I mean yeah mgmt isn’t top brass at all. Would be more worried but RA cap investment has “broken the seal” for specialist investment so feel like no issues for money coming in if data is good
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Bio tracker
Bio tracker@bio_tracker2026·
@DietmarHaudegen Are you referring to worse LLPC depletion? Agree they need to prove durability more than CD19, I guess my argument is that risk is lower for upcoming update (18 mo data for oldest patient). Especially since clinical markers all declining in last update
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Dietmar Haudegen
Dietmar Haudegen@DietmarHaudegen·
@bio_tracker2026 yes, certainly better tissue penetration and stamina, but probably worse memory cell buildup. They have a lot of advantages over alpha tcells, like safety and off-the-shelf, but IMO they have to show same durabilty as alpha approach
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Bio tracker
Bio tracker@bio_tracker2026·
@DietmarHaudegen Fair point, but seems like through some reading that gamma T cell could have advantages in tissue penetration and microenvironment clean up which could support longer term T cell patrolling. But theoretical still, yeah. Latest RA cap PIPE was double current share price …
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Dietmar Haudegen
Dietmar Haudegen@DietmarHaudegen·
@bio_tracker2026 CAR gamma T-cell approach is not clinically validated, so big questionmarks on persistance of t-cells and durability of responses. Also big raise at low price last time and a resplit.
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Bio tracker
Bio tracker@bio_tracker2026·
Plus $ACET has multiple 1H and 2H readouts to serve as re-rate events
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Bio tracker@bio_tracker2026·
@BioValues @HHGF99 @f8434784752 Isn’t it a bit higher fully diluted? Doesn’t really matter though. And I actually didn’t know about higher dose somehow I missed that. Although didn’t see any difference in 1 vs 3 x 10^8 doses (very small N to be fair)
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Bio tracker
Bio tracker@bio_tracker2026·
@HHGF99 @f8434784752 @BioValues Yeah I think artiva is likely to have some good data, but I suppose my point is what is the bar for ACET to hit to cause (any) increase in share price at $90M mkt cap? Seems pretty low. And SLEDAI all decreasing last update makes me think this one should be decent or better
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B boy19
B boy19@HHGF99·
@bio_tracker2026 @f8434784752 @BioValues Probably, still I'd go with Artiva first as the safe bet as they slreupublished successful headlines for the Eular abstracts. My guess is they'll be the first to report too.
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Bio tracker
Bio tracker@bio_tracker2026·
@f8434784752 @HHGF99 @BioValues Also not sure either of your perspectives but this personally isn’t a long term play. Cost and other operational complexities of cell Tx make them much less compelling commercially. I just think the value dislocation and negative EV at this moment are interesting
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Bio tracker
Bio tracker@bio_tracker2026·
@f8434784752 @HHGF99 @BioValues Very interesting thanks for sharing. Agree it must be impacting dsDNA. In the gazyva trials it seemed like clinical responses deepened over time after Tx stopped. So ACET not a sure bet but the pieces together make me feel this update should skew towards positive stock movement
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Bio tracker
Bio tracker@bio_tracker2026·
@HHGF99 @f8434784752 @BioValues Just commented above, this is my main worry. Binary Y/N for dsDNA is far less helpful than % remaining and to your point it’s a bit concerning they didn’t plot it / show it …
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Bio tracker
Bio tracker@bio_tracker2026·
@f8434784752 @HHGF99 @BioValues Have they reported more granular dsDNA data either for their autoimmune patients? Can only find binary Y/N for presence from Sledai-2k scale in last data update. Would be more helpful to see % reduction as lower % bodes well for no relapse (in this update)
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f@f8434784752·
@HHGF99 @BioValues For $ACET, I think the strongest proof so far has been the lymph node biopsies done in the Glean trial. All the CD19 B-cells gone from the tissue. While anti dsDNA might still be lingering, it does not mean a relapse will happen.
f tweet mediaf tweet media
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Bio tracker@bio_tracker2026·
@BioValues Aren’t they also updating in SSc? Thought there was a third indication for this round
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BioValues
BioValues@BioValues·
$ACET still sitting patiently long here. SLE/LN data should be any second now.
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BioValues
BioValues@BioValues·
Started re-buying $ARTV for RA data in 2 weeks and starting to heavily accumulate $CRBP for two upcoming data readouts that could be explosive (in particular obesity)
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Bio tracker
Bio tracker@bio_tracker2026·
Coming from someone long and bullish on $NKTR (unoriginal I know) When do folks think this gets the valuation correction it deserves? Is there enough smooth brain hype behind next gen IL-13 that it’s going to take early launch #’s (years away) to force a value jump?
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Keşfet

@HHGF99 @f8434784752 @BioValues @TheBiotechBear @thecellengineer @unicornbiotech @DietmarHaudegen @elonmusk