andrew

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andrew

andrew

@thecellengineer

Biomed PhD. Thoughts posted are my own and should not be taken as financial advice - DYOD

Colorado, USA Katılım Kasım 2021
668 Takip Edilen120 Takipçiler
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andrew
andrew@thecellengineer·
$CABA ripping 30% on news of insider buys. Cat might be out of the bag, but I suspect this will trickle back to $2.5 bc of the pre-funded warrants. Lots of intrinsic and competitive risk but at <300M mc I still see a strong setup with upcoming catalysts. My pick for biosquidgames
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andrew
andrew@thecellengineer·
$CABA trickle down happened. We now know 30M of 50M warrants exercised. Bullish setup this month for MG data. Don’t expect any surprises there but ynk w/biotech. Real melt up probably in May in anticipation of no-precon SLE/LN data. Watchful for dilutive raise following good data
andrew@thecellengineer

$CABA ripping 30% on news of insider buys. Cat might be out of the bag, but I suspect this will trickle back to $2.5 bc of the pre-funded warrants. Lots of intrinsic and competitive risk but at <300M mc I still see a strong setup with upcoming catalysts. My pick for biosquidgames

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andrew
andrew@thecellengineer·
@investwithsheng $CABA I suspect a run up until readout of Ph2 no preconditioning in lupus (before July). Would love to see it hit $6 but I personally doubt it unless they release some other PRs for the other indcations or pre-announce an incoming lupus PR. Huge impact once dropped either way
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andrew
andrew@thecellengineer·
$CABA !! About time
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GIF
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AscendingBio
AscendingBio@AscendingBio·
$FATE Lupus and Fatigue Fate Therapeutics is using several outcome measures for CAR-T Lupus treatment. The easiest to understand is this measure of fatigue. A treatment that gets these kinds of results is working and is achieving a life transforming impact.
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andrew
andrew@thecellengineer·
@JessieChimni @AscendingBio @Octopusking77 I don’t dispute the idealized advantages of allo in AID. I just see KYTX and CABA setting high bars that will make funding trials in myositis, SSc, MG, etc less palatable for allo Cos. Why risk a pivotal trial for 2yrs+ where the best case scenario yields something like $30m PYR?
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Jasbinder (Jessie) Chimni (My Opinions only)
Jasbinder (Jessie) Chimni (My Opinions only)@JessieChimni·
They will have a challenge when allo companies target the same indication. $FATE can produce 50,000 doses a year, $CRSP can produce ~30,000 and $ACET should be similar to $CRSP. My assumption is that $FATE and $ACET will start pivotal in myositis/SSc in 2027. I am long $FATE and $CRSP, and have a small exposure to $ACET. $FATE remains my favorite company targeting AID. Will add to the position if/when they file BLA or are closer to FDA approval. Upside potential is large post commercialization of 819. NFA
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andrew
andrew@thecellengineer·
@JessieChimni @AscendingBio @Octopusking77 That said, my sense is that many years down the road this TA will converge on the lowest cost multi-year+ "cure" and that may be allo. I look at it as plenty of time to ride the 2026/27 autologous wave and reinvest profits into allo if that still looks promising
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Jasbinder (Jessie) Chimni (My Opinions only)
Jasbinder (Jessie) Chimni (My Opinions only)@JessieChimni·
Do you know how many patients they can treat annually? I follow $CABA only to understand the larger landscape but am not an investor. My biggest issue with autologous CAR-T is lack of scalability, high COGs and high prices. In indications like SSC and Myositis the standard of care costs are very high so $CABA could be successful there, until the allo CAR-T companies enter the same indications with lower COGs and higher scale, assuming similar efficacy and durability.
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andrew
andrew@thecellengineer·
@JessieChimni @AscendingBio @Octopusking77 Sure, speaking from memory I'm wanting to say caba claims ~8,000 myositis patients in U.S. would be eligible. If they can incorporate Cellaires, their CEO and CCO (who I am inclined to believe) claim they can launch generating thousands of doses. I guess COGS will be ~$50k/dose.
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andrew
andrew@thecellengineer·
@JonahBlake sounds like the start of The Mitchells vs. the Machines
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Jonah
Jonah@JonahBlake·
LMFAOOOOO
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andrew
andrew@thecellengineer·
$ALT Not a perfectly executed trade but feeling satisfied - sold half of my shares at $5.88 and bought back in $5.15. Just had to wait longer than expected.
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andrew
andrew@thecellengineer·
Themes likely to emerge from widespread AI use analogous to post-war era fitness to combat poor diet and reduced physical activity: - Intentional fast and slow thinking training - Personalized neuro feedback - Metrics of brain health
Wes Roth@WesRoth

Terence Tao says AI can lower mental effort so much that the brain may stop “lifting its own weights.” Early studies suggest reduced cognitive load can come with real harms, not just convenience. Math is especially vulnerable because it’s easy to outsource every step to a tool. Responsible use means choosing when to think, not just when to click, says Terence Tao.

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andrew
andrew@thecellengineer·
$ALT the d.o. dilution will reverse much of the recent rally, but long term it reduces risk in executing p3 and negotiating a good deal. Buyside knows this and aren’t in a rush. Confirmed p3 trial design & FPD, AUD readout, ALD fully enrolled are catalysts that reignite rally.
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andrew
andrew@thecellengineer·
@brwtoovey I agree he could have been more nuanced in his case for interpolating Ph3 fibrosis success. Dr Rinella, who was the one pointing out the high pbo remark, laid out a cogent case for why pemvidutide signals were encouraging. I like the spirit of the conference - foster candor
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B@brwtoovey·
@thecellengineer Dr. N pushed back too hard making defending high pbo. he could simply have said "transition to AI-assisted biopsy reads will reduce variability inherent to histology". biopsy core is 1/50,000th a liver, finding fibrosis is like shooting a fly off a balloon from 100yds
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andrew
andrew@thecellengineer·
2026 MASHTAG takeaways wrt $ALT and pemvidutide. Overall bullish sentiment IMO (trying to observe bull and bear signal) 🧵 Thread
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andrew
andrew@thecellengineer·
@brwtoovey Not sure I follow this point - The AASLD poster showed sig differences between pbo and 1.8mg for all categories but 30% reduction in advanced fibrosis
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B@brwtoovey·
@thecellengineer thats why liverexplore AI analysis from AASLD (arguably more objective measure) *also* showed non-sig differences between pbo and drug. biopsy simply too variable unless your patient group is F4 with highly cirrhotic liver
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andrew
andrew@thecellengineer·
As always, this is NFA and you should DYOD
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andrew
andrew@thecellengineer·
In summary, the case for BP activity with $ALT was strong. -Pemvi is differentiated in ways that matter from other incretins (as many cursory detractors falsely deny) -Pemvi is the only “available” Ph3 asset in a hungry market -NITs and fibrosis. Early and encouraging signal
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andrew
andrew@thecellengineer·
Dr Loomba gave an overview of semaglutide and tirzepatide. Two key things I noted: 1. NITs are good predictors of histologic efficacy 2. Big Pharma owns or recently acquired every Ph3 MASH asset (except the recent and unpictured pemvidutide) (I’m countin $MDGL as BP here)
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