Brandon Bailey

If I’m a smaller miner like $SLNH $BDGE looking to convert my existing capacity to HPC Cerebras feels like a company you have to be targeting aggressively. $DGXX and $WYFI already on board and are in a strong position to be able to have Cerebras take incremental capacity.

The opportunity cost of holding bitcoin over the last year has been immense

@intangiblecoins @umbrel @mempool @mononautical This is 🔥

spent the last month building a personal AI research infrastructure on a mac mini. no cloud. no saas. here's what’s running full bitcoin node. bitcoin core v29, 944k+ blocks, full txindex. powered by @umbrel home. also running a local @mempool instance, @mononautical's bitfeed, and @w_s_bitcoin's quantum exposure dashboard to track P2PK address exposure bitcoin analytics DB. postgresql ingesting every block in real time. per-block fee rate percentiles, hash rate, segwit %, inscription counts, miner IDs, transaction pattern classification, and address type breakdown (P2PK through P2TR). daily aggregates: puell multiple, mayer multiple, NVT, supply issuance, MVRV, SOPR, URPD, and many more. 5,700 days of price history and blockchain data. a lot of what i'm building is directly credited to or expands on work by @checkmatey, @TXMCtrades , @nic_carter, @willywoo, @w_s_bitcoin, and many others. will share more about what these look like in the future OFAC sanctions and known criminal address monitor. 518 sanctioned BTC addresses from treasury's SDN list, data from open source attribution sets, scanning every block and unconfirmed mempool tx. instant telegram alert the moment a sanctioned address moves large PnL alerts. monitors inputs ≥10 BTC for realized gain/loss vs. cost basis. fires when >40% move and >$1M. "address bc1q...xyz moved 847 BTC at +$62M profit" obsidian vault, 2,200+ documents. full bitcoin optech archive, delvingbitcoin posts, bitcoin-dev threads, every satoshi email and forum post, galaxy research and podcast transcripts, SEC/CFTC/fed filings, GENIUS and CLARITY act text, other congressional legislation and press releases. all also ingested into the kuzu graph. morning digest to telegram daily at 8am LLM wiki. a modified version of @nvk's implementation of @karpathy's llm-wiki pattern. the AI doesn't just index documents, it reads and maintains a persistent cross-linked knowledge base. new source in, wiki updates. contradictions flagged. knowledge compounds. extremely useful already kuzu knowledge graph. thousands of documents cross-referenced by entity, topic, and source. semantic search in seconds lightning network. using my node, LND, and LNbits to give clem (my AI assistant) full lightning capabilities. he can create and pay invoices on my behalf. not sure what i'll use this for yet but it's live. maybe just to easily send and receive upon my instruction and later to help manage an expanded lightning node what's next: bitcoin transaction tracing, address clustering, entity attribution and behavioral pattern matching (chainalysis-style tooling, self-hosted). macro and fed data ingestion. a scientific research library. and eventually the same on-chain stack extended to ethereum and solana (hardware permitting), primarily to track defi and stablecoin flows all of this on a mac mini M4, 48GB RAM, 2TB SSD. clem coordinates everything on signal 24/7, routing to my local models as needed and appropriate (mostly gemma4 26B and deepseak R1 32B). zero access to my icloud, email, contacts, or personal data of any kind. operates entirely within a sandboxed research workspace ~$100/mo total: $20 in claude and chatGPT subscriptions, ~$60 in anthropic API fees.. about $100/mo. hardware was one-time purchase everything else: self-hosted, open-source, mine what else should i build? this year has been the most exciting time for me building personal technology in years if you aren’t building with AI, what are you even doing?

1/ Some Simple Economics of AGI—🔥🧵 Right now, there is a low-grade panic running through the economy. Everyone is asking the same anxious question: what exactly is AI going to automate, and what will be left for us?

@t4t5 🔥

I taught my bot how to inscribe things on Bitcoin! 🦞 it uses Ordican’s x402 API + USDC on Base to pay for the fees

No guts no glory

$BITF x.com/bitfarms_io/st…

$CIFR dip this morning was an incredible gift

Bullish for $CORZ since they have single tenant risk currently with $CRWV. Core Scientific is currently trading at just under a 9% implied cap rate on its existing leases with Coreweave.

Strong price performance for the bitcoin miners transitioning their power capacity to HPC over the past few trading days, but there is still deep value in my opinion. All of the companies still trade at a 7% implied cap rate or higher just on existing leases as opposed to your traditional datacenter companies $DLR and $EQIX. I’d expect fair value to be close to a 6% cap rate and you still have the potential of additional leases to be signed at sites within each companies pipeline. I like the entire basket of bitcoin miners even after the recent run-up $IREN, $WULF, $HUT, $CIFR, $CORZ, $APLD

The 4 year cycle is dead

@user889889 Around ~$24

@bitcoinbeezy Using the same calculation, CIFR comes in a much lower price target?

$WULF currently trades at a 10.3% cap rate. If you value take the annual NOI of its current leases divide it by 6% cap rate subtract debt and any unfunded capex and then add back cash and divide by shares outstanding you get an implied share price of ~$24. You don’t need to look at charts and TA, this is fundamental value. Cap rate compression will come as time and execution risk of on time delivery burns off.

$428k per MW solid sale and good use of proceeds to continue fund the transition infrastructure in the US for HPC. Keep going Ben!

The U

Everyone hyping privacy coins as a major theme for 2026. It’s a nice convenient narrative, but “privacy” isn’t some monopolistic moat only Zcash and Monero have. Privacy exists on a spectrum and can be achieved in a number ways especially on other L1 blockchains with significantly more adoption and usage. Bitcoin could even add a ZK opcode at some point in the future and several teams are already working on ZK rollups on Bitcoin. Privacy coins probably go higher, but this a greater fool trade.

There’s deep value in bitcoin and crypto equities, the narrative hot potato game will make its way back around

Still incredibly bullish on bitcoin miners converting MWs to HPC/AI. Miners that have already signed HPC leases, $CIFR, $HUT, $WULF, $CORZ, $IREN trade at an implied cap rate of around 8.5-11% as compared to gold standard datacenter reits $DLR and $EQIX which trade at a 4.5-5% cap rate. I’m super bullish on cap rate compression between the miners and these datacenter reits. It’s really a matter of time weighted risk, vs asset quality risk. The spread exist because of fears of the miners being able to deliver completed projects on time and being able to fund construction without dilution. Once the projects are delivered and revenue starts these risks go virtually to 0 which should close the discount. On forward leases they should be valued at a more normalized cap rate closer to 5-6%. As the miners will have proved that they can deliver for the hyperscalers.

introducing Ordiknots: magic internet JPEGs powered by Bitcoin Knots 🪢🪢 github.com/taproot-wizard…