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Bivek
438 posts
Bivek
@bivekadhi
engineer-turned-investor Posts 👉🏼 research & notes from convos w inventors, consultants, bankers, execs, investors & builders
San Francisco, CA Katılım Kasım 2010
1.7K Takip Edilen195 Takipçiler
For every $1 OpenAI made in Q1 ($5.7B), it lost $1.22.
For every $1 Anthropic makes in Q2 ($10.9B), it expects to make 5 cents in operating profits.
(don't have OpenAI Q2 data nor Anthropic Q1 to compare apples to apples)
Sheel Mohnot@pitdesi
Anthropic exp $10.9B Q2 revenue, up from $4.8B in Q1, and $559M of operating profit for the Q. Compute is 56 cents per dollar of revenue, lower than I expected. Q2 projection: $10.9B revenue -$6.1B compute -$2.7B sales & marketing -$1.5B other costs =$559M operating income
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Ok, looks like more tech companies are listening... 2026/2027 might set the record for tech IPOs after all.
Polymarket@Polymarket
JUST IN: Oura, maker of Oura Ring, confidentially files for IPO.
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Bivek retweetledi
Climbing Everest has become like winning the Premier League these days; apparently anyone can do it now.
CNN@CNN
A record 274 climbers scaled Mount Everest on Wednesday, the highest number to reach the summit from the mountain’s south side in a single day, a Nepali hiking official said. cnn.it/4uvwxAe
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@FractionalAI just proved the killer AI company might be a services firm with unparalleled deployment velocity: frontier models, elite engineers, and direct access to hundreds of mid-market companies.
my favorite thing about the company is the “Bring Your Own Engineering Team” role: group JDs, one interview process, one offer, and onboarding intact teams instead of breaking up group dynamics.
Polymarket Money@PolymarketMoney
Anthropic’s enterprise AI services JV with Blackstone and H&F made its first acquisition buying Fractional AI. The bigger story is that AI labs are building services arms around their models with Anthropic gaining a Claude deployment channel while OpenAI loses a partner.
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I just spoke with Charles Schwab about the @SpaceX IPO. Schwab is one of a handful of brokerages selected by SpaceX to allocate IPO shares to retail investors.
If you have an account with Schwab, here’s how to prepare for the SpaceX IPO:
1) You first need to opt into IPOs from the Trade > IPOs page on Schwab's website.
2) After you've opted in and the IPO shows on the page, you can submit an Indication of Interest. The indication of interest will be able to be submitted when the Roadshow period begins for the stock. This is currently expected to be early June.
3) You need to have minimum $100,000 in total balance to be eligible to participate in the SpaceX IPO share allocation.
Schwab still doesn't know how many shares will be allocated to their brokerage at this point since SpaceX will be the one to decide that in the coming weeks. Just be prepared to check back on the IPO section of Schwab's website. Additional info will come later.
Lastly, don’t be surprised if you receive fewer IPO shares than you requested (if any at all). Demand for the limited number of available IPO shares will almost certainly be extremely high, and these participating brokerages will only get a certain sized allocation of shares to offer to retail investors, so it'll likely be tough to accommodate everyone. The best thing you can do is to just be prepared.
Note: SpaceX specifically stated in their S-1 filing that any purchase of their Class A common stock in this offering through these platforms will be at the same IPO price, and at the same time, as any other purchases in this offering, including purchases by institutions and other large investors, which means any retail investors that are lucky enough to get allocated some SpaceX IPO shares will pay the same price as the big guys.
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two things can be right at the same time:
1. seasoned public market investors: this valuation, TAM, and the entire S-1 projections are batshit crazy. You are the exit liquidity. Be aware!
2. retail investors: you are looking at today’s numbers, but @SpaceX has proven the impossible, and @elonmusk has a great history of executing on impossible-looking roadmaps. $370B in space-related activities is a steal. That TAM alone is in the trillions.
*The only caveat is that retail investors should remember they are underwriting an early-stage startup and NOT a public company. Their risk-reward profile and portfolio construction strategy should also reflect this.
Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭@ThierryBorgeat
🚨YOU ARE THE EXIT LIQUIDITY You are about to be offered the most expensive IPO in modern history. SpaceX's S-1 just dropped. The headline numbers: - 2025 revenue: $18.7 billion - 2025 net loss: $4.9 billion - Q1 2026: still losing money - Reported IPO valuation target: roughly 90 times sales For context, the previous record IPO, Saudi Aramco, listed at 6 times sales. SpaceX is asking for fifteen times that multiple. With a net loss attached. Four things in this S-1 that should make you pause.
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@wholemars this post would’ve sounded like a dream that would never come true just two decades ago
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Right before I woke up I was having a dream that my Cybertruck got a software update
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@ThierryBorgeat SpaceX is valued & treated as a startup in public market. Even Tesla had more of a public company outlook at IPO.
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Second, the TAM is mostly imagination.
SpaceX claims its total addressable market is $28.5 trillion. Larger than the GDP of the United States.
The breakdown:
- Space: $370 billion
- Connectivity (Starlink): $1.6 trillion
- AI: $26.5 trillion (of which $22.7 trillion is "enterprise applications")
Ninety-three percent of the TAM SpaceX is selling is AI software it does not make, sell, or own. The company is a rocket and satellite business with one major AI compute contract.
Every IPO inflates its TAM. SpaceX just set the record.
Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭@ThierryBorgeat
🚨YOU ARE THE EXIT LIQUIDITY You are about to be offered the most expensive IPO in modern history. SpaceX's S-1 just dropped. The headline numbers: - 2025 revenue: $18.7 billion - 2025 net loss: $4.9 billion - Q1 2026: still losing money - Reported IPO valuation target: roughly 90 times sales For context, the previous record IPO, Saudi Aramco, listed at 6 times sales. SpaceX is asking for fifteen times that multiple. With a net loss attached. Four things in this S-1 that should make you pause.
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The flow NVDA → AI labs → hyperscalers → NVDA highlights real ecosystem interdependence, but isn't literal circular financing.
**Case for:** NVDA's ~$18.6B non-marketable equity/infra investments include AI model makers and partners who buy GPUs. This can indirectly stimulate demand, blurring lines in a concentrated market.
**Case against:** $81.6B revenue is from competitive, cash-paying customers (hyperscalers) with genuine external demand for AI compute—not recycled funds. Investments are standard profit allocation from $50B+ op. cash flow; capex is only ~$1.8B. No evidence of inflated sales or closed-loop dependency.
Genuine growth, not a Ponzi.
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When does circular financing stop? Similar to a Ponzi Scheme, when cash outflows become greater than inflows. In this last quarter, $NVDA cash grew by only ~$600, and now ~95% of its operating cash flow is absorbed by circular financing vs ~57% one year ago
JustDario@DarioCpx
Going to sleep now, enjoy the upcoming granted “beat and raise” usual $NVDA earnings charade. When I wake up I will take a close look at the earnings and if I find anything interesting nobody already posted I am going to share it as I have been doing for the past 4 years. 👋
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**No, not the literal definition of circular financing.**
The $26.4B investing outflows break down as:
- ~$8B purchases of marketable debt/equity securities (standard treasury/cash management)
- ~$18.6B non-marketable equity & infrastructure funds (strategic ecosystem bets; some AI model makers that may indirectly use NVDA chips)
- ~$1.8B capex + minor items
The $81.6B revenue (mostly Data Center/AI chips) comes from arms-length sales to customers like hyperscalers who pay real cash for high-demand GPUs. These investments support the broader AI buildout but aren't a closed-loop "circular" scheme recycling funds to fake revenue—it's genuine product demand + prudent capital allocation from massive profits.
Standard for a cash-rich growth company generating $50B+ quarterly op cash flow.
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**Fact check on the claims:**
The numbers are accurate per NVIDIA’s official Q1 FY2027 earnings (ended Apr 26, 2026):
- Cash + marketable debt securities grew ~$665M (from $49.67B to $50.34B).
- Op. cash flow: $50.34B (up from $27.41B YoY).
- Investing + financing outflows: $47.71B → ~95% of op. cash flow (vs. ~57% YoY).
**Breakdown (official cash flow statement):**
- **Financing outflows** ($21.28B): Mostly $19.3B stock buybacks + $2.1B tax withholdings on stock comp + $0.24B dividends.
- **Investing outflows** ($26.43B): $26.6B purchases of securities (incl. $18.6B non-marketable equity/infra funds, some in AI companies that may use NVDA chips) + $1.76B capex + minor acquisitions, offset by small maturities.
**Actual usage vs. circular:**
Actual business costs = operating expenses (already netted in op. cash flow) + capex (~$1.8B for PPE).
The rest is capital allocation: shareholder returns (buybacks/dividends) and treasury/investment management (securities purchases). No “inflated rates” evident—these are disclosed market or strategic investments at fair value. Buybacks return real profits from $81.6B revenue (mostly Data Center/AI sales) to owners.
This is standard for cash-rich growth companies, not a Ponzi (cash inflows are from actual customer sales, not new investor funding). Whether it’s “circular” is interpretive—NVIDIA is generating genuine cash flow at massive scale.
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and I’ve not even listed everything
x.com/polymarket/sta…
Polymarket@Polymarket
JUST IN: SpaceX’s IPO filing says Starship could enable point-to-point travel anywhere on Earth in about 30 minutes or less.
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@SpaceX’s IPO prospectus is the most inspiring S-1 in history.
Ford, Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Apple, Genentech, Netscape, Amazon, Google, Tesla, Facebook, Nvidia…there have been only a handful of civilization-shaping company stories that ever hit the public markets.
But the SpaceX pictorial alone evokes a different emotion: landing rockets, giant factories, Starlink, Starship, Mars, the Moon, orbital data centers, defense, AI, fintech, social, and ONE man behind the whole insane arc. @elonmusk 🫡
Definitely the densest display of human excellence ever packed into an SEC filing.
The civilization-altering S-1 of human history and a proud day to be human.
And maybe the last Musk company to ever IPO?
Sawyer Merritt@SawyerMerritt
SpaceX's IPO prospectus (S-1 filing) is now officially public! You can read the full document here: sec.gov/Archives/edgar…
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S & X will forever be in my heart
Tesla@Tesla
The legacy of Model S & X will live on in our vision for autonomy
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