Ben Walker retweetledi
me to editor asking when i’ll file the story:
Jim Newell@jim_newell
Fetterman said “accept the mystery” when I asked if he was a certain yes for Mullin
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Ben Walker
17.3K posts
Ben Walker
@BNHWalker
Co-Founder of @BritainElects. Senior Data Journalist for the @NewStatesman. Borough Councillor for Chester's city centre, West Cheshire
United Kingdom Katılım Mart 2017
2.4K Takip Edilen28.3K Takipçiler
@BNHWalker A good amount out there in the mandate divide literature (my field): Here’s at least two (UK and Germany) - onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.111… and tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.108…
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Has anyone done any good work on the relationship and/or effect list MPs/elected reps have with the constituents, compared to say constituency reps?
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Ben Walker retweetledi
A person from Leeds going to Baghdad and seeing a functioning tram.
Bhaumik Gowande@bhaumikgowande
The Capital of Iraq, Baghdad, has restarted its old tramway system to revive tourism. The country was ravage by war a decade ago 🇮🇶🚋
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This take fails to appreciate what the G&D result says to x% of voters who aren't keen on Lab but wear them in election years to beat the greater evil on the right. It renders it dead. What floor Labour in its current form had has been lowered. x.com/i/status/20340…
Alan Johnson@AlanJoh26375981
You THINK they would have. But you don’t know it. The risk reward balance was not worth it from Labours point of view. Reward = improving your chance of winning a by election when you have a majority over 100 anyway. Risk = losing the Manchester mayor If I had to gamble, my bet is you would be right. But if I didn’t have to gamble l The manchester mayorality, I wouldn’t.
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Ben Walker retweetledi
@labourball Think a Burnham hold in G&D would have had a not insubstantially positive impact on Labour's ability to retain GM.
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@Wkrs @labourball This is overhyped bs imo sorry, the Bin Keir campaign lives as long as the party is sub-20% in the opinion polls.
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@BNHWalker @labourball But the unofficial Burnham campaign slogan would have been "vote Andy to ditch Keir".
The damage this does to the party brand and the constant speculation would have had an equally substantial negative impact on GM (and every subsequent election).
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Trading control of the GM Mayorship for a single MP would not exactly be a great deal...
Ben Walker@BNHWalker
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Gorton and Denton
Hypothetical polling caveats aside, it wouldn't have been a particularly close one...
newstatesman.com/politics/polli…
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@BNHWalker The part that's rather pathetic
is your pretending not to understand why people might want the details of what questions were asked. Now, I mean, while it's being discussed.
It's a highly unusual hypothetical poll by a firm no one has heard of.
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@Neal_Compass Not sure where you get those % from? Actual figs here: newstatesman.com/politics/polli…
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The @TheGreenParty wave would have been stalled if @AndyBurnhamGM had been allowed to stand according to a poll in the @NewStatesman:
Andy Burnham (Labour): 14916 (40.4%)
Hannah Spencer (Green): 10487 (28.4%)
Matthew Goodwin (Reform): 9520 (25.8%)
The New Statesman@NewStatesman
The rise of the undecided voter Exclusive polling shows how late the Gorton and Denton by-election was decided By @bnhwalker #Echobox=1773740970" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">newstatesman.com/politics/polli…
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@BNHWalker Have you published the full poll details like people normally do, or are you hiding them?
I don't see them there.
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Ben Walker retweetledi
@BNHWalker Greens and Lib Dem’s would have been squeezed to block Reform, Labour would have 100% won it. Would have meant a small poll bump. Things that could have been 🥲
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Concept of a 2026 Green voter who would have voted Reform is Burnham ran
Ben Walker@BNHWalker
Gorton and Denton Hypothetical polling caveats aside, it wouldn't have been a particularly close one... newstatesman.com/politics/polli…
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