Bobby

A few days ago @GiganticRebirth's ‘Big short’ article popped up. Great read. A while back I did research on token unlocks myself. I’ve attached a sheet with unlock info of some tokens In the thread below, I will share some thoughts on FDV & Unlocks 🧵👇 docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

@herxbt Fortunately don't know anything that low

@keyserx_ Which means I can share my next trade I guess

@bobbybanzai you fell off

@BlankBrainTrade cobie.substack.com/p/probabilisti… cobie.substack.com/p/tokens-in-th… cobie.substack.com/p/trading-the-… oldcoinbad.com/p/a-starter-gu… x.com/0xkyle__/statu… x.com/game_for_one/s… x.com/game_for_one/s… x.com/lBattleRhino/s… x.com/HsakaTrades/st… x.com/AVCrypto_/stat… + all of GCR's tweets

friend wants to start trading, are there any good threads or substack for beginners to start of

@LuckyXBT__ Great self-reflection mate. Hope you find your balance, enjoy the ride

[no idea where I went with this post, personal reflection on Thiccy's post] This is one of thiccy’s best write up's. Resonated a lot with me. The fact that I actually read the whole thing says a lot. My brain doesn’t really do longform anymore. Not since crypto rewired everything into headlines, alerts, chat messages, tweets, and short clips. Sitting down to read a full piece like this felt like a reset. (although getting better) There’s a lot here that overlaps with my own experience. Maybe the dollar figures are different, but the shape of it is familiar. 2024 changed my life in a real way. Crypto gave me opportunities in trading and business, and I took them. Most of it worked out. By the end of the year, I was riding high. Personally, professionally, just in general. But something shifted in January. I kind of checked out - I lost that "urge", akin to how some basketball players check out due to actually not needing to anymore (Referencing Thiccy's post). You know when people say - "when you get to X, you will want to keep going". I havent felt that urge, I am extremely risk averse and love a PnL curve that looks slow and gradual, underperforming in good times, but out performing in bad times. I am... happy (?) with what Ive got. You could probably see it in my tweets (for anyone that actually cared lol). I used to post constantly, and then just didn’t. It wasn’t burnout exactly. More like the urgency evaporated. I was still putting in 12-hour days, still reading every headline, still showing up - but wasnt going as deep, wasnt bothered to share any findings I had, wasnt as bothered to share any thoughts I had. As such, I found myself taking fewer discretionary trades - due to lack of deep research, because I didnt really have to (?). It’s not because I hate it. I don’t. I love the game. I like the people I talk to every day. I still have that drive to learn and improve. But I also feel something pulling me in another direction. Toward reflection, deeper thinking, maybe a slower pace. Part of what keeps me here is just life context. I’m still young. Most of my friends are wrapping up college/Uni or starting their first jobs. It’s that phase of life where everyone’s on rails, and I’m a little off-script. I could travel or disappear for a while, try something different. But no one around me is really in that position, so I haven’t made the move either. There’s also been this weird internal friction building up. I had this moment recently where I realized how desensitized I’d become. I was reading about the AIr India plane crash and my first thought was, "What aircraft? Can I short Boeing?" Same with the Israel and Iran situation. I jumped straight to Polymarket. I wasn’t thinking about people. I was thinking about edge. A few traders told me, “That’s just how it is.” And maybe it is. But I’m not sure it should be. What’s always bothered me about crypto is how deeply it’s wired around money as identity. It’s the only thing that really counts. "Is he 7figs?", "who cleared what last year". That’s true in most of the world, but in crypto, it has some sinister layer to it, which I cant really explain. I’ve never posted PnLs, never been loud about numbers - because it feels off. Close friends have an idea know. My family sort of knows. But, Ive kept it quite private. And that’s the strange part. I could walk away. I could go live the kind of early twenties most people would dream of. But I don’t. I still log in. Still scroll. Still take trades here and there. Still hang around my group chats. Partly because I enjoy it. Partly because it feels like home. But beneath it, there is this anxiety of "you only get your 20's once - get out and live your life". I am living my life, and travelling, conferences, meeting people: but its alllllllll crypto related... the best part of my life is doing the $20 football bets and having some drinks with friends. But lately I’ve been wondering how sustainable this is. Not financially, but mentally. Physically. Spiritually. I’m happy, truly. But there’s a quiet voice telling me it might be time to step back for a while. To lean into the silk pajamas. To give myself permission to rest, explore, and figure out what I actually want to do, not just what I’ve always done. I don’t know where that leads yet. But this post hit at the exact moment I needed to read it. So thanks for that. Im expecting "take a break" type of comments - Im completely fine, and trading is going great. The "Edge" per say is still there, and as traders its our job to extract until that edge diminishes - but I think it all circles back to the bit of anxiety about health and wanting to live my life, but feeling a little bit trapped. Anyway, food for thought. No doubt I will see you in the orderbooks in an hour :)

MSTR + CEP + ASST + SMLR + NAKA + DJT = $76B in capital raising ability to buy Bitcoin. That's 56% of the AUM of the Bitcoin ETFs and 169% of the net inflows the ETF complex has achieved in last 16 months. Source: Wells Fargo

@trdrtur Good job man! Wanna share what the startup is about?

GM, how is everyone doing? I haven’t been very excited about crypto in the last six months, just sticking to the trading strategy that works for me. I have been working on turning what I’d now call a garage project into a tech startup. Here are a few big lessons I’ve learned: The importance of outsourcing, getting good at bringing in the right people for it, and focusing on the unique value that I can bring. The best way to solve complex problems is taking a step back, laying out all moving parts, and simplifying the problem and solution. Also, the value of consistently making new friends pays off massively over time in many ways. I have a friend who just hangs out all day and makes insane money connecting people he knows.

@warobusiness @krakenfx yes

@RunnerXBT not enough to retire

DMs like this might as well be reason why I end myself

@Route2FI Are you still considering? What would convince you?

Should you relocate to another country when you're young to build up your net worth faster? In many countries in Europe, you are ranked as a high-income individual (over $100k), and you easily have to pay 50% income tax. This means that if you earn let’s say $400k per year, $200k goes to Uncle Sam. Yes, this is the price of living in a welfare state. But it's a rough price to pay IMO. In Norway, they also have something called wealth tax. 1.1% of your net wealth is taxed every year. It may seem like a small thing, but let’s take a look at why rich people don’t like it. Let’s say you earn $400k per year and have $4m in net wealth, then you end up paying 43,5% income tax + 1,1% wealth tax which gives you an effective tax rate of 53,8% of your salary (if you have your own stock company you pay 22% company tax, but then 37,8% on every realization). If you had no income it would be $40,000 in wealth tax only, but since you have to pay out dividends to yourself you have to pay 37,8% tax on the $40k you have to pay in wealth tax, so that’s an extra $15k in taxes. My point is that your $400k is easily cut in half by taxes, and digital nomads who want to be financially secure faster could probably enjoy living in a country with more “friendly” taxes. This comes at another cost though. Because not everybody wants to live in another country, and leaving friends and family can be not something that is worth it to you. If you feel like you’re giving up on life just to save money, then you’re doing it wrong IMO. A quote from DegenSpartan: "ppl frame it like you live in a 3rd world country prison for 10 years and at the end of it you walk away with millions meh. those ppl ultra exaggerate how bad it'll be, when its probably gonna be a delightful period of personal growth and horizon broadening by living abroad doesnt even need to be abroad this basically also applies for people relocating to a different city or out of state - but with almost no tax savings lol i think people over-estimate the social cost/loss and undervalue being upfront rich at 30 yo, not 50" I don't have a final answer to this, and personally I haven't left Europe. But I can see many benefits of doing so, ref the thread from Spartan.

@game_for_one Happy new year mate 🙏 Keep it up

Happy New Year to everyone. 2024 was a strong year for both connections and results. Let’s aim to outdo ourselves in 2025. May your harvest be plentiful and your journey prosperous.

@RiffRaffOz 👏

Trigger warning: long post I traded perps well during the 7 month chop and put all profit into spot BTC. Throughout this whole year and previous years I tried to learn more about the macro, political and regulatory landscape for crypto. As the election drew closer and Trump started positioning himself as the pro crypto president, I became increasingly confident that the election was monumentally important for the price and future of our coins. I believed the election outcome was binary, Kamala wins prices down bad and Trump wins prices up huge. So I tried to learn as much as possible about the US election, polling, betting markets etc. It seemed to me betting markets were far more reliable and polling was consistently unreliable and had a bias skewed against Trump historically. As the betting markets like Polymarket favoured Trump 60/40 and the polls were 50/50, I decided the goal was to try be as long as much BTC as possible in the event of a Trump win. I did not believe the FUD that Polymarket was unreliable or biased, billions of $ were being wagered and smart players would bet Kamala back to 50/50 if those were the true odds as the polls said. The trump trades in the stock and bond markets also reflected that billions were being wagered on a Trump win. Tech CEO's with vast data sets like Zuckerburg and Bezos both started slow pivots away from Kamala towards Trump. On Saturday 2nd November I was given a gift by the markets, the Ann Selzer poll was released. She is considered one of the best pollsters in the country and her poll had Kamala winning by a huge margin. On seeing the poll I saw that Polymarket immediately knee-jerk pumped Kamala's odds by 10% or so and yet confusingly, crypto was flat. I shorted ETH (my preferred liquid short for majority of the year) on seeing this and it took a few hours before panic set in and crypto prices dumped. Unfortunately for the ETFs they had to wait until Monday to sell and on Monday they capitulated hard. They were panic dumping into the US close on Monday and seeing as I do not much weight in the polls at all (only believe that others mistakenly do) I closed my ETH short and started longing BTC from the low 67k's ETF capitulation. From there prices rallied to around $69k+ which put my BTC long in a nice comfortable profit heading into election day. A friend I had met through crypto offered to let me into his voice call group of pro election betters and analysts on election day. These guys knew the importance of every single voter demographic in each county in each state. As the early votes and demographic data came in the group were shocked at how bullish all the early data was swinging towards Trump and the Polymarket odds started climbing slowly as more data came in. I increased the size of my long as both Polymarket odds increased and the election betting group became more and more confident. As my entry started from the Ann Selzer dip I had quite a bit of buffer giving me confidence that if things turned sour and Kamala won I would be able to exit either in tiny profit or a manageable loss. In the end my spot portfolio was 100% allocated to BTC and my perp position was 1.5x the size of that on top from around $70-71k average, the most levered long position I have ever taken in $ terms. Polymarket was around 72% Trump by the time I was fully sized. I did not take any profit until $90k+ and have since re-longed BTC many times in smaller size with latest exit around $106k.

@c0xswain Good notes

a note to myself, 15 lessons i've learnt from 2024: 1. don't be afraid to take a chance on things that aren't incredibly obvious at the start 2. do not fade something just because you're lazy, unfamiliar, in other coins, in competing coins, etc 3. exercise a lot of discretion when it comes to shills you see on CT. do perform a lot of critical and second-order thinking when analysing opportunities. 4. believe in your analysis, trust your intuition and own your positions: you are responsible for your own PNL 5. do not compare yourself to others: try to be happy for those who are outperforming you and learn a thing or two from them 6. manage your emotions well: making rash and emotionally-charged decisions will mostly lead to bad outcomes 7. try to find a balance between having conviction and being receptive to new information 8. play to your edge: do not try to copy other styles if you're not good at it. there are plenty of ways to make money. 9. it's okay to win small/big and lose small, but it's not okay to lose big 10. fumbling life changing money is normal (don't let anyone tell you otherwise), but do try to learn from your mistakes 11. identify and understand your cognitive blind spots (i.e. endowment effect: irrationally overvaluing the things we own vs things we dont own) 12. be kind to others, do not put other people down, and help those who seek advice from you. do not let money/status change who you are and how you treat people. 13. it's better to be a willing seller than a forced seller 14. opportunities come and go like buses on the street: do not despair, opportunities are always plenty 15. good ideas mean nothing with poor execution merry xmas to everyone and i'll see you in the orderbooks soon

When it’s up 75% but you’re just a chill guy waiting for a chillion

@retard_intern Yeah that’s the bearcase But I’m just a chill guy that doesn’t worry about it

Loaded up $CHILLGUY - biggest tiktok normie coin - 120k holders in a week - ⁠crazy viral meme, normie friends keep sending it, posted by every sports team, celebs, presidents - down over 50% of the highs - ⁠it hit 550M with no T1 - binance listing wouldn’t surprise me considering volume, virality, easy way to onboard tiktok retail. Reminds me of pnut/moodeng Think this will go to a chillion and flip pnut

@jo_na_thanos Never left

@conquerofself Yes - @chillguycto

@bobbybanzai Is this the correct CA Df6yfrKC8kZE3KNkrHERKzAetSxbrWeniQfyJY4Jpump