DK

@JoshuaMellin @chicago @ChooseChicago @enjoyillinois @filming_chicago View from the race-committe boat:

⛵️ Watching the sailboats at sunset from Montrose #Chicago instagram.com/p/DZJppoRDsIJ/

@financialjuice Routine channel checks for DJT Capital

US Treasury Secretary Bessent: I met with the big LLM labs in San Francisco on Saturday.

The "Head of Macro" from Greenlight capital! Banned from all Waffle Houses in Florida.

@RichardHanania If "political capital" is really a meaningful concept, you should be able to make more with good luck and investment acumen. Some good government measures, like ending trading by elected officials, could actually be good investments

Yglesias with an interesting way of looking at Trump's corruption. We think that it's something he just gets away with and there are no consequences. But if you think about it as his main priority, it's where he's spending his political capital. Every president decides to spend it somewhere. But most presidents have some kind of policy ambition, while Trump just wants to get as much money as possible and punish his enemies. So it's not costless, but a replacement for what would traditionally be an administration's agenda.

I look forward to the lush banana groves of Suffolk.

@MTockers quiverquant.com/stock/VGZ/inst…

Anybody who looks at Vista would have to agree we're undervalued for the size of the project we have." — Fred Earnest, CEO $VGZ That's not hype. That's conviction. 𝗪𝗮𝘁𝗰𝗵 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗳𝘂𝗹𝗹 𝗠𝗶𝗻𝗲$𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸 𝗧𝗮𝗹𝗸 👍 youtu.be/rv0RkeKCW2w

@MTockers That interview on $vgz was great, guys. I appreciate the questions about the risk to the development path. Noticing a big increase in the stake of Kopernik Global Investors, to 13.8 mln shares as of 3/31 (just under insider threshold), adding 83% of that in the past quarter.

@EddBolingbroke As a total f-in tourist, I'd like to know why the incoming positive supply shock from AI is not keeping people from dumping Ts. Obvs we have higher commodity prices, but labor is a pretty big input to prices. Or does the investment demand outweigh the AS shock for a while

Big block trades in Treasury futures today, all sales. Felt like a ‘capitulation’ type day👇

@JohnSpelman17 @gnoble79 Aircraft + printing press = unlimited credit line. Saved everyone $99

@gnoble79 If you had a few aircraft carriers, they'd probably loan you the money

Imagine you walk into a bank. You make $5 trillion a year but you spend $7 trillion. You're $36 trillion in debt with another $125 trillion in obligations you haven't funded. And then you ask them to lend you money for 10 years at 4.4%. They would laugh you out of the building. Yet that is EXACTLY what the United States government is asking the bond market to accept right now. And somehow, for now, the bond market keeps saying yes. Your "safe" 40% bond allocation was supposed to be the thing that protects you. The hedge, the ballast, the part of your portfolio that goes up when everything else goes down. Instead it's been dead weight for 4 consecutive years while inflation eats what's left of your purchasing power. The 60/40 portfolio was built for a deflationary world where recessions were the primary risk and bonds were the cure. But we are NOT in that world anymore. Inflation is sticky above 3% and rising. Energy prices are heading higher. Government spending is completely out of control. And global bond markets are starting to crack, with Japanese yields at 30-year highs and German bunds at levels not seen in two decades. US yields have been remarkably calm by comparison. That calm won't last though... So the most important question facing every investor right now is simple: What do you do with the income side of your portfolio when the traditional answer no longer works? That's exactly what we set out to answer. And on May 20th, I'm bringing together 14 of the sharpest minds in the industry to tackle it head on. The Best Income Ideas Online Summit. Produced in collaboration with Seeking Alpha. Michael Howell, Luke Gromen, David Hay, and Jay Pelosky are setting the macro table. Then we're pivoting to actionable income ideas from specialists whose track records are extraordinary. We're talking 19%, 34% annualized returns. Alpha Picks up ~400% since inception versus 90% for the S&P. The guy behind Alpha Picks, Steven Cress, will be presenting as well. So the entire focus is uncorrelated sources of income that protect against inflation and replace what bonds can no longer deliver. Yield you can actually live on, dividends that grow, and income streams that aren't correlated to the same 7 AI stocks everyone else is crowded into. Our March summit drew over 800 attendees and the ideas have been compounding ever since. This one will be just as serious. If you're serious about protecting your money, you cannot afford to miss this. And all of this for $99. I used to pay thousands to sit in a room with people half this good when I was running hedge funds. You will never find a better conference for the money. Period. May 20th. Online. Replays available. Join us today: noble-capevents.com

@DaveNadig @KrisAbdelmessih Welp, Kris just said it's not left/right so that settles it. Lizard people must have forced Trump to slash the enforcement division.

@KrisAbdelmessih THere is zero chance anyone other than the lowest level flunky is ever chased down for this... they literally don't have lawyers left to even file the paperwork. decrypt.co/357602/cftc-le…

100% They have lot level surveillance on trades. They'll track down a small time local spoofing 10 lots like a bloodhound. I guess we'll just have to wonder forever about these trades. Disillusioned? It's not left/right. It's Epstein class vs all

$vgz bumping up against its last downtrend over the past 2 days and meeting selling presh. Biggest issue these days is the intense pressure on USTs and the potential impact on gold. Breaking above 2.35 would clear out the technical issues for a bit, but that seems miles away rn

@mattyglesias "If a farsighted capitalist had been present at Kitty Hawk... he would have done his successors a huge favor by shooting Orville down". - Warren Buffett

@PythiaR Just unpresidented.

Wow

Unfortunately does not look good. Your waistcoat should not peek out from beneath your tailcoat. Given the dearth of native-born tailor in the US, the only way to remedy this is to bring in immigrants, as many of them will have learned how to tailor garments back home.

@StevenMandrapa And what has the opposite approach done for the quality of our public people?

My unpopular opinion is that the French have it right: public people still deserve private lives. Who fucking cares.

I keep seeing the "9-5 is prison" takes on my tl. Here's an alternate take. Go read about people who lived during the 1300's. Absolutely horrible existence. Between bandits constantly raiding and murdering, no modern medicine, over half the population dying from the plague, constant war, it was a terrible and hopeless life. If you are blessed enough to have a 9-5, drive home in your car, flip on the A/C, munch on Durito's while watching your favorite series after a hard day's work, you are beyond blessed and are living a life that exceeds 99% of anyone in history or alive today.

$vgz $5-10 with gold at $3k. Maybe

Cryptos preeminent scammer got big dogged by the literal presidents family at his own game lmao

@Brad_Setser Thank you, sir. Any thoughts on how this ends? Disorganization among Western governments doesn't seem likely to end until 2029, and China looks unlikely to alter course in the foreseeable future.

One of the best Big Reads of all time -- The thing to read to understand why the undeclared war with Iran cannot take the second China shock out of the newspapers/ why imbalances are back of the G7 agenda 9/9 ft.com/content/7d51a6…

My work on this earth may be nearly over -- or at least my work of the last 4ys could be in its final chapter. The FT's Big Read is on the China sock 2.0 (one of my favorite phrases) and the pink paper endorsed the concept of "shadow reserves"! 1/