Guido Bongioanni

little reminder that in less than a month applications will open to apply to the econ #PhD programme @EUI_ECO. Great programme, faculty and peers are waiting for you here in Florence! #econtwitter

Famously (there is a beautiful Works in Progress piece on this) in 2016, Geoffrey Hinton told an audience in Toronto that medical schools should stop training radiologists, since AI would soon outperform them at reading scans. Ten years later, there are more radiologists than ever, and they earn more than they did then. Hinton was right about the task, but he was wrong (so far!) on the future of the radiology profession. Times have never been better for them. The gap between those two claims, the difference between tasks and jobs, is the subject of a paper I have written with Jin Li and Yanhui Wu, and that we release today: "Weak Bundle, Strong Bundle: How AI Redraws Job Boundaries." (Very relatedly we are also finishing the first draft of our book "Messy Jobs" on AI and Jobs!! You will be the first to hear). We start from the observation that the growing literature on AI and labor markets measures the AI shock by task exposure: people count how many tasks AI can perform in a given occupation AI can perform, and infer that more exposure means more displacement. Eloundou et al. published a paper in Science in 2024 that started this literature, and many follow the same logic. The inference they make is that the more exposed tasks, the worse the outcomes. This is incomplete, because labor markets price jobs, not tasks. A radiologist does not just sell image classification, but does many other jobs: triages cases, communicates with other physicians, trains residents, makes the difficult decisions, and signs a diagnosis. The market buys a bundled service. The question AI poses is not whether it can do one task inside the bundle. The question is whether that task can be pulled out. Thread (1/3) dropbox.com/scl/fo/689u1g7…

New art project. Train and inference GPT in 243 lines of pure, dependency-free Python. This is the *full* algorithmic content of what is needed. Everything else is just for efficiency. I cannot simplify this any further. gist.github.com/karpathy/8627f…

"Humans aren’t very efficient movers—until you put us on a bicycle, when we become some of the most energy-efficient land travelers in the animal kingdom."

Outstanding news for Europe. Clearly, Switzerland is in the game. The UK is in the game. Why does the European Union keep missing the opportunity the US President is gifting us to recruit the best researchers in the world? (By the way, China too is using this chance to the max)

@grok @checovenier @sama @grok can you retrieve the link to the stream too? thanks

@checovenier @sama The OpenAI livestream is scheduled for August 8, 2025, at 10:00 AM PDT. In Italy (CEST), that's August 8, 2025, at 7:00 PM.

our livestream tomorrow at 10 am PDT will be longer than usual, around an hour. we have a lot to show and hope you can find the the time to watch!

Upcoming new feature! Chat with a local LLM directly in our overlay window over the context you decide! Full video → youtu.be/XNR2YcqapyQ

@ptrpanizza @JesusFerna7026 @BrianCAlbrecht @brusco_sandro prima cosa a cui ho pensato. E al post di @brusco_sandro su nfa di quasi 20 anni fa.

@JesusFerna7026 @BrianCAlbrecht Penso che qui si parli anche della popolarità del modello superfisso 😂@brusco_sandro

Brian Albrecht (@BrianCAlbrecht) consistently offers some of the sharpest takes on basic economics on X. His recent post is a gem: 🔗 economicforces.xyz/p/will-ai-skyr… Brian makes a simple but essential point, one I’ve tried (and failed) to make thousands of times when talking about labor markets: Wages are not fixed. They adjust. Yet we constantly see people argue as if they’re not. A few greatest hits: 1) “If we let people work after retirement, they’ll steal jobs from the young.” (A classic in Southern Europe.) 2) “Lowering payroll taxes won’t affect wages. It’ll just fatten employer profits.” (A fan favorite in Spain; Bonus: since we do not call “payroll taxes” in Spanish but “cotizaciones”, this is not even a tax to begin with). 3) “If we automate, there will be no jobs left.” 4) “If we block labor mobility from region A to B, shortages in B will remain… because wages won’t adjust.” (Bonus: folks in region B often believe 3 and 4 at the same time: too many and too few workers!) Let me clear: Any of these policies 1)-4) might be good or bad. I do not know. But I know that one needs to write a model to judge them. I’ve changed my mind many, many, many times after doing the math, or reading someone else who did. But one thing isn’t optional if we want a serious debate: Wages are endogenous. They respond to policy. If you don’t accept that, you’re not doing economics.

@justinbieber @grok is this the proof that "the american mind cannot comprehend this"?

🇨🇭🇨🇭🇨🇭🇨🇭🇨🇭🇨🇭🇨🇭🇨🇭🇨🇭

@morganlinton can one choose the model also when the dialogue window is open next to the tab? does the model also access the page source?

And I haven't even started talking about skills yet 👀 But I'll save that for a future thread because skills definitely deserves a thread of its own.

After using @diabrowser for a couple of weeks I can confirm, this isn't just another browser, it's a paradigm shift in how we use the Internet. I don't think I can go back to using a traditional browser ever again. Here's a good example of how I use Dia, daily. A 🧵

@giovannipelazzo in che senso fa impressione sentirlo dire da uno come lui?

Ci sono treni che passano una volta sola e Alexander Bublik è stato fenomenale a riuscire a salire su quello che stava correndo davanti a lui. Ha dovuto trattenere a stento le lacrime ("sembra quasi che abbia vinto il torneo", parole sue): difficilmente mi sarei aspettato una gestione delle emozioni tale da parte sua. Dopo aver ricevuto un paio di minuti abbondanti di applausi, Sascha dice basta (col sorriso): "Fermatevi ora, non posso piangere qui! Ho ancora una partita davanti a me, sono un tennista professionista e devo prepararmi a dovere". Fa impressione sentirlo dire da uno come lui, ma che bellezza, che meraviglia questo sport 🇰🇿❤️

@FillingTheCrack @StefanFSchubert what journals are you referring to when you say this? I have a very different experience.

@StefanFSchubert How is it then possible that nearly 100% of Econ papers I come across is “we researched question x by way of playing around really a lot with model y, not including a single actual data point anywhere in our paper.”?

How economics has changed

"Davvero? No dai"

@alz_zyd_ how would your reasoning change when thinking about high school learning? i.e. I guess removing the assumption that students have *some* interest.

We can, in theory, reshape learning completely around LLMs. We can eliminate textbooks, and syllabi, and the rigidity of "bottom-up" learning: learning can be driven organically, just by whatever the student happens to be interested in, backfilling all that's needed on demand

There are two approaches to learning things: 1. Bottom-up: read textbook, learn foundations, and build up knowledge ground-up 2. Top-down: "How do rockets work?" Start from a question; backfill physics knowledge until the answer to the question makes sense

@LnrdRizzo @Unibocconi for the record, the typo is fully intended (and hence the pun too) en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P%C3%A9te…

@LnrdRizzo @Unibocconi very nice exercise. What was the new pope's Erdő number? 😂

How we "guessed" the Pope using network science: inside the cardinal network. A study by me, Beppe Soda and Alessandro Iorio. Article: unibocconi.it/en/news/networ… @Unibocconi

waiting for it

@jaumevivesb @nyuniversity @StanfordGSB big congrats Jaume!

Thrilled to share that my job market search is over! In fall 2026, I’ll be joining NYU (@nyuniversity) as an Assistant Professor of Economics and Data Science, after a year as a postdoc at @StanfordGSB. 1/2

@dieworkwear the sleeves of both shirts and jacket seem a bit short too

Contrast that with Hawley. The vertical lines on his jacket are swinging towards each other as they move down on his body. What is causing this? Well, very likely it's because Butker is standing naturally and Hawley is standing overly erect.

There's a very subtle difference in how these two jackets fit. Can you spot it? 🧵

@AlessandroLavia @PIrelandEcon @rosen_valchev @micheleboldrin @Roberto_M_Billi congrats Ale!

This is just called an economist.