Jamais Vu 🏉

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese says he had a very positive visit to Lakemba Mosque this morning, noting there was little heckling during his time there.

Behold, the one year chart of the 2yr yield in the UK

🚨 SCANDAL: The Full Hidden Cost of Recent Migration – Raw Data, Government's Own Sources I spent months working on this data and shared it with many large accounts. No one replied. Now they’re all calling it out. At least try and get ahead of the drag curve! Government won't publish direct migrant breakdowns. So we connect their data: ethnicity rates + nationalities + dependency patterns. Focus: Legacy impact of post-2021 non-EU wave (~2.5–2.8 million cumulative net additions before curbs, ONS Nov 2025 revised). Child Benefit Impact (One Benefit Alone) Baseline: ~7.5–7.7 million families claiming (~£13.3bn total annual spend in 2024/25, HMRC August 2024 data). Proxy: Map inflows to 2018–2021 ethnicity rates (no updates published). Conservative (low-dependency, 25–35% arrivals claiming): - 400–600k extra families. - £0.8–1.2 billion extra annual cost (6–9% uplift). Plausible upper (high-rate skew + lower activity, given proxy uncertainties): - Pakistani/Bangladeshi: 30–34% claim rate. - Black/Nigerian: 28%. - Muslim full-time employment: ~20% vs. ~35% national. - Muslim women inactive "home/family": 18–29% vs. 6–10% overall (ONS Census 2021). → 600–900k extra families. → £1.2–1.8 billion extra annual cost (9–13% uplift; 20–30%+ in urban areas). Full Incremental Annual Fiscal Hit (Short/Medium-Term Raw Breakdown) - Child Benefit: £1.2–1.8bn. - Asylum hotels/accommodation: ~£2.1bn hotels in 2024/25 (down ~30% from 2023/24 peak £3bn; total asylum support ~£4bn). - NHS/education/housing pressures (population growth 0.5–1% from migration): £5–10bn extra to maintain per-capita services (OBR high-migration scenarios). - Other welfare (disability, housing support – similar ethnic skew): £2–4bn. Total direct: £10–15bn+ annually (legacy wave persists despite YE June 2025 net fall to 204k overall). MAC 2025 Raw Facts: - Asylum/refugee routes: "unambiguously negative" lifetime (employment ~56% vs. 75% UK-born). - Family/partner routes: average -£109k lifetime fiscal deficit. - Low-wage (care/health visas): sharply negative. - Dependants flip even skilled routes toward deficit. Beyond Direct Costs – More Raw Data 1. Remittances Outflows: - UK total: ~£9–10 billion annually (World Bank/Migration Observatory 2023–2025 estimates). - Top recipients: India, Pakistan, Nigeria – exact match for recent top nationalities. - Wave addition: £2–4 billion+ extra sent abroad yearly – money earned/taxed here, permanently extracted. 2. Integration & Social Challenges: - Muslim women economic inactivity "looking after home/family": 18–29% vs. 6–10% overall. - Grooming gangs: 2025 Casey National Audit – confirmed poor national data recording (ethnicity missing in two-thirds of cases) but over-representation of Pakistani-heritage men in local reviewed data (Rotherham, Rochdale, Greater Manchester). Historical failures linked to fears of "racism" accusations. These compound the £10–15bn+ into generational costs: eroded cohesion, extra policing/social services, lost recirculation. Older OBR models assumed high-participation EU migration. Post-Brexit non-EU skew makes it fundamentally worse – potentially hundreds of billions lifetime net. **Concluding Note** The post-2021 migration surge differed materially from earlier waves in both scale and composition. Because a significant share of arrivals came via family-forming and high-dependency routes, and from populations with historically higher Child Benefit take-up, the resulting increase in claimant families is likely closer to the upper end of plausible estimates than to population averages. UK non-EU net migration between 2021 and 2023 represented a clear structural break from previous decades. Net inflows rose from long-run levels of ~100–250k per year to peaks approaching ~900k in 2023, even when humanitarian schemes (Hong Kong BN(O) and Ukraine) are excluded. Continued - it gets worse👇🏽