Skinna

@noah_xr4 @collinsnotes @saurav_tweets @Polymarket less about chasing miracle hits

@collinsnotes @br0tail @saurav_tweets @Polymarket this is why i started looking at stuff like xmarket instead

to make $10,000 on @Polymarket you only need: 1 $100 position you buy at 1¢ 2 $100 positions you buy at 2¢ 4 $100 positions you buy at 4¢ 5 $100 positions you buy at 5¢ 10 $100 positions you buy at 10¢ 20 $100 positions you buy at 20¢ what’s stopping you?

@noah_xr4 @collinsnotes @saurav_tweets @Polymarket low odds bets for a reason

@collinsnotes @saurav_tweets @Polymarket yea hitting all those is not as easy as it looks

@theoriasiy @OddsMindX @DavidAbasyan @RoundtableSpace kinda like how some platforms let u create ur own markets now

@OddsMindX @DavidAbasyan @br0tail @RoundtableSpace users not just clicking buttons anymore, they wanna interact, build, shape the flow

SOMEONE BUILT LIVE VIDEO CHAT INSIDE THE TERMINAL. IT RENDERS YOUR FACE IN ASCII IN REAL TIME. THE TERMINAL HAS OFFICIALLY LEFT THE BUILDING.

@DavidAbasyan @OddsMindX @RoundtableSpace we really went from cli to this??

@OddsMindX @RoundtableSpace ascii face cam inside terminal is crazy

New on Xmarket: Iran Ceasefire by March? Negotiations remain tense, as Iran demands verifiable guarantees and an instant stop to attacks before agreeing. Wondering how it'll play out? Predict now 👇 xmarket.app/markets/iran-c…

@Xmarketapp XM-56MMS3

@WenRugxxx @hanakoxbt and math always wins long term

@hanakoxbt not even prediction anymore, just math vs humans

i fed Claude 5 PhD formulas and asked him to build me a terminal he didn't ask questions. he built MiroFish 274 agents. 4 quant formulas running live each one doing what 87% of polymarket traders can't every 5 seconds the terminal does this: > scans polymarket contracts > runs bayes update on every new signal > calculates EV against market price > sizes position through ¼ kelly > checks KL-divergence across correlated markets for arbitrage no opinions. no "i feel like YES is underpriced" just math that PhD students publish and hedge funds lock behind NDAs here's what happened in 14 days: > day 2: bayes picked up OSINT chatter on iran negotiations prior 0.31 → posterior 0.58 in three updates bot bought YES on "ceasefire by Q3" at $0.33 kelly sized it at 6% of bankroll contract moved to $0.61 by day 5 +$2,180 > day 6: KL-divergence flagged a gap "candidate X wins primary" priced at $0.70 "candidate X wins general" priced at $0.48 historical base rate says general should track at ~62% of primary bot bought general, hedged with primary convergence hit by day 9 +$3,740 > day 9: EV scanner found a weather contract market priced hurricane landfall at $0.22 model said 41% based on NOAA data EV = +$0.86 per dollar risked kelly said 11% allocation landfall confirmed day 12 +$4,890 > day 11-14: base rate engine running quiet fed meeting contract at $0.65 for "hold rates" base rate: fed holds when unemployment < 4% → 74% of the time unemployment at 3.8%. market underpriced by 9 points bought at $0.65. settled at $0.98 +$4,663 total: $15,473 in 14 days not from predictions. from formulas 87% of polymarket wallets lose money because they trade what feels right the top 1.2% trade what the math says MiroFish doesn't read twitter threads it reads probability distributions 274 agents don't have opinions they have bayesian priors every 15 seconds the NEXUS core sends a pulse to all agents they recalculate. reposition. repeat i just watch the profit tick copy the bot here: @1743116" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">kreo.app/@1743116 you don't need to be a quant you need a quant's formulas running 24/7

Terminal is now online. Secure free mint access cuboids.xyz

@0xRodo GM

gm

$72,333.19 #Bitcoin

@ryan3vu @riko_flux @PredictParity @Kalshi @Polymarket @cryptocom @opinionlabsxyz @trylimitless @IBKR still feels like most of the volume is concentrated on just a few platforms

@riko_flux @PredictParity @Kalshi @Polymarket @cryptocom @opinionlabsxyz @trylimitless @IBKR prediction markets clearly getting bigger every year

Prediction markets revenue* (last 30) 1. @Kalshi $110m 2. @Polymarket $4.2m 3. @cryptocom $4.1m 4. @opinionlabsxyz $1.3m 5. @trylimitless $1.1m 6. @IBKR $597k

who wants to get onboarded to @opensea mobile this week? we’re expanding the private beta to another 50 users interested? drop a reply in the thread 👇 what’s one thing you hope OpenSea Mobile can do better than other crypto apps… I’ll dm 10 interesting answers tonight 🙏🫶

prediction market has been one of the strongest narrative lately people aren’t just arguing about news on CT anymore they’re literally trading the probability around it elections, crypto events, sports, random internet drama… everything turns into a market what’s interesting though is people seem to be looking for new platforms, not just the usual ones > different mechanics > different incentives > different ways to create markets curious what prediction market models you guys find the most interesting so far

@OddsMindX @Xmarketapp This code have a time limit?

Got 2 codes for @Xmarketapp private beta Small alpha most people haven’t noticed yet: - Market creators earn a share of the trading fees - If your market goes viral and people trade it → you keep getting paid So instead of just betting on trends, you can actually own the market around them Pretty different from @Polymarket / @Kalshi DM if you want a code

Today, while browsing X, I unexpectedly came across an old friend - Mad Lads. The current NFT price is $1874. The peak price at the end of 2023 was $20,000. Roughly speaking, that's a 10-fold increase from the peak.

The $birb claim and Nesting 2.0 is now live. claim.moonbirds.com This is the ONLY official claim site, do not trust any other links and stay safe.

This Cowboy Hat Punk just sold for 169 ETH / $529K

Society is divided into five classes: Very poor, poor, middle class, rich, and very rich. Each group thinks about money differently. My target for next season is to accumulate at least 100 BTC. What about you? If BTC reaches $1 million, how much Bitcoin will you have?

Punk #7892 bought for 169 ETH ($529,181 USD) by 0xea13...4e16 from 0xcaf4...dab4 cryptopunks.app/cryptopunks/de…