Cody

Extremely consensus move to be a contrarian rn

@TheStalwart Everything is about sports, except sports. Sports is about…gambling

@Rory_Johnston The @nytimes made a similar mistake today in going through the MOU text with a fine-toothed comb. This was never about the text of the MOU, this is about brinksmanship between two parties that have shown they don't care much about the truth of what they write.

folks are talking about this "walk back" as if the 20% toll was ever a serious demand you can simply choose to not do that

The onus is on Eric to tell us why these inventory charts are meaningful - because they've proven to be meaningless for the last 3 months. #oott

@ericnuttall Chinese buying returning at what prices?

With the US SPR largely drained, the temporary "surge" of escaped Strait barrels ~ absorbed, Chinese buying returning, and the Strait by any rational definition "closed", charts like these should once again matter:

@CRUDEOIL231 What’s the play

Check out the satellite feeds on the Ras Laffan thermal footprint. The complex is rated for a 77 mtpa nameplate, but the data from July 7th and July 12th shows thermal signals lighting up 6 trains—putting active online liquefaction at a measly 34.7 mtpa. The remaining 8 trains are showing zero thermal heat. Plus, we already know RasGas Trains 4 and 6 are total write-offs for the foreseeable future after taking those direct missile hits back in March—the street's saying it’s a multi-year repair job. Just to map out the macro tape, ever since the geopolitical friction boiled over on July 11th, not a single LNG carrier has managed to push through the SoH. #oott #iran

@CRUDEOIL231 I think the tail risk is escalation without intentionality. This isn’t a highly centralized organization

I’m still sitting here thinking this whole setup isn’t nearly enough to flip everything. Look, oil mkt was heavily tilted short, and the street was already pricing in a technical dead-cat bounce, so this violent short squeeze isn't exactly catching anyone off guard. I’m not betting the house that Trump drops a TACO print automatically. The ball is 100% in Tehran's court. With the US officially shouting out a maritime blockade refresh, Iran has to punch back. Sitting on their hands right now means lighting whatever leverage they have left on fire. If Iranian barrels get choked out, the textbook playbook for them is to hold their leverage hostage by capping everyone else’s inbound and outbound lanes. Where their pain threshold actually sits, though, is anyone's guess. But let’s be real—flimsy headline blockades, symbolic drone strikes on US outposts, and minor tanker skirmishes aren't going to move the needle anymore. If Iran actually goes hot and starts hammering GCC infrastructure or executes a bulletproof, total lockdown of the Red Sea—bc let’s face it, that hasn't cleanly hit the tape yet—that’s your structural runway to macro escalation. If they push it that far, even Trump will eventually have to map out an exit strategy. You guys can talk about the math all day, but trust me, I run the same models. The only reason my PnL took a hit in that final month was because that exact math completely flatlined on me. Strictly speaking, if a hull catches fire and Hormuz goes dark again, the tape should be screaming $150 oil. But the street has massive scar tissue from watching the market effortlessly fade geo-headlines in the past, so the money is naturally going to gravitate right back toward that short-bias default. We need a smoking gun here—an absolute tail risk print that no desk can handwave away. Either Iran puts real kinetic heat on regional infrastructure to cause undeniable physical damage, or the US-Tehran back-and-forth morphs into total, unhedged warfare. Without that kind of tail-event acceleration, keeping crude pegged at these highs is going to be a massive uphill battle. Bottom line, looking at the tape over the last few months, the current catalyst mix just isn't getting the job done. Though to be fair, we’ve got two massive wildcards sitting out there—one bull, one bear. The bull case: China. Beijing knows the West’s strategic buffer is completely running on fumes. They could easily weaponize the tape, push crude into a massive squeeze, and put the squeeze on the US administration. Granted they left that trade on the table last time, but you can’t cross it out. The bear case: Trump's TACO. The exact monster everyone in this room is staring at. Let’s be real—Trump could jump on social media right now, print a single line saying 'Not everyone has to pay,' and you'd instantly see $4-5 washed out of crude. When the dust settles on this squeeze, macro funds are going to need a bulletproof thesis to stay long the front of the curve. Everyone on the street still has PTSD from the consecutive VaR shocks and the TACO traps we just went through. Holding paper longs here takes a serious amount of delta-courage. We need a total smoking gun here. It might sound completely unhinged, and ppl can point fingers at me all they want, but let's be real—haven’t we all taken enough pain over the last few months to learn our lesson? Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me three times, and you're officially a co-conspirator. Let's watch the tape play out. #oott #iran

@emollick China is far ahead on video models.

One thing I am kind of surprised by is that full multi-modal (any-any) models have not become a bigger deal. It seems Google is the only Lab releasing these, OpenAI uses selective multimodal capabilities, Anthropic famously has no multimodal output & open weights models are mixed

@TheStalwart @krithikavaragur Last vestiges of the literate world?

Aramco World is one of the few print magazines I subscribe to. Great read here from @krithikavaragur

@raphaelschaad @parkerconrad @tryramp does this quite well

Narrative violation: you upload a receipt, expect the fields to auto-populate, but crickets — no LLM is doing any work here. @parkerconrad My standards for software have changed entirely in the past 12mo.

@gdb @emollick Share your setups

@emollick I agree. Any advice on how to do it better?

Very few people know the amount of useful work that the current models can do in Code/Codex/etc. with the right setup This is not a "rah rah you are so early" post, this is a "AI companies are doing a really bad job explaining what their systems actually do in a clear way" post.

Why don’t frontier labs acquire these companies? Seems like a wildly unfair advantage to have this in house.

@jfbrly @Varungupta We’re talking about culture - I’m not talking about political movements.

Buying a football team is pure vanity, with zero additionality to the world. Instead, you found a new university that would live on for millennia, endow 1000 soccer academies to make the US actually good at soccer, build a grander version of the World Trade Center / the Oculus, or, or, or...

@Varungupta The New York Yankees are more culturally relevant and influential to 99.9% of the population than the top US University is.

@breenemachine Venture capitalists aren't in the business of optimizing for median outcomes. The top 5 universities in the world are 1000x more culturally relevant than any football team.

@dieworkwear That’s not a conspiracy that’s just realpolitik

the one conspiracy i believe is that this place is full of bots programmed to say insane, incendiary things and they're funded by foreign organizations who want to divide americans and destabilize US society

@CarolinaLion2 Refiners buy spot. This is an insane take.

Really? Because the crack spread indicates refiners are paying close to $120.00 a barrel and the $72.00 market price is artificial.