Varun Gupta

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Varun Gupta

Varun Gupta

@Varungupta

GP at Caffeinated: @affirm @airtable @amcainc @antaresnuclear @avencard @brexhq @federato_ai @onebriefapp @saronic @vardaspace @virtahealth

Galain Katılım Eylül 2020
351 Takip Edilen2.9K Takipçiler
Afshawn Lotfi
Afshawn Lotfi@afshawnl·
@Varungupta He gave me some genuinely useful advice for doing open source as a startup. Happy for him :)
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Casey Aylward
Casey Aylward@caseyaylward·
Core memory: telling the Accel partnership why I was so excited about a linter Congrats @charliermarsh and the @astral_sh team on everything you've done already for the Python community and excited for your next chapter at @OpenAI
Charlie Marsh@charliermarsh

We've entered into an agreement to join OpenAI as part of the Codex team. I'm incredibly proud of the work we've done so far, incredibly grateful to everyone that's supported us, and incredibly excited to keep building tools that make programming feel different.

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Finn Murphy
Finn Murphy@FinnMurphy12·
Varun Gupta going to be the youngest entrant to the Midas list in a generation if him and Raymond decide to share the Caffeinated books. HUP @Varungupta
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Varun Gupta
Varun Gupta@Varungupta·
“Do you think,” said he, “I have not just cause to weep, when I consider that Alexander at my age had conquered so many nations, and I have all this time done nothing that is memorable?” — Julius Caesar, age 32, as recounted by Plutarch in Parallel Lives
David Senra@davidsenra

Great men of history had little to no introspection. The personality that builds empires is not the same personality that sits around quietly questioning itself. @pmarca and I discuss what we both noticed but no one talks about: David: You don't have any levels of introspection? Marc: Yes, zero. As little as possible. David: Why? Marc: Move forward. Go! I found people who dwell in the past get stuck in the past. It's a real problem and it's a problem at work and it's a problem at home. David: So I've read 400 biographies of history’s greatest entrepreneurs and someone asked me what the most surprising thing I’ve learned from this was [and I answered] they have little or zero introspection. Sam Walton didn't wake up thinking about his internal self. He just woke up and was like: I like building Walmart. I'm going to keep building Walmart. I'm going to make more Walmarts. And he just kept doing it over and over again. Marc: If you go back 400 years ago it never would've occurred to anybody to be introspective. All of the modern conceptions around introspection and therapy, and all the things that kind of result from that are, a kind of a manufacture of the 1910s, 1920s. Great men of history didn't sit around doing this stuff. The individual runs and does all these things and builds things and builds empires and builds companies and builds technology. And then this kind of this kind of guilt based whammy kind of showed up from Europe. A lot of it from Vienna in 1910, 1920s, Freud and all that entire movement. And kind of turned all that inward and basically said, okay, now we need to basically second guess the individual. We need to criticize the individual. The individual needs to self criticize. The individual needs to feel guilt, needs to look backwards, needs to dwell in the past. It never resonated with me.

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Chris Power
Chris Power@2112Power·
. You thought I was joking about Reindustrializing America. I was not. Tune in March 20th for the the start - not the end - of the largest private Marshall plan ever devised. Alabama and F4 is the start. Winning the Production war is the end.
Hadrian@HadrianInc

We've been working to bring something big to The Shoals, and now, it's time. On March 20th, we'll be launching our newest facility - Factory 4 - in Alabama. Expect: • 2.25M sq ft of manufacturing • 1,000+ jobs created • $2B in Private/Public investment • Remarks from @SenKatieBritt, @SenTuberville, @RepMikeRogersAL, @Robert_Aderholt and other senior officials • A private concert from our favorite rock band of all time, local BBQ, and the best entertainment Alabama has to offer Building for America is worth celebrating. Apply for an invite here, spots limited → HadrianAlabama.com

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Hadrian
Hadrian@HadrianInc·
We've been working to bring something big to The Shoals, and now, it's time. On March 20th, we'll be launching our newest facility - Factory 4 - in Alabama. Expect: • 2.25M sq ft of manufacturing • 1,000+ jobs created • $2B in Private/Public investment • Remarks from @SenKatieBritt, @SenTuberville, @RepMikeRogersAL, @Robert_Aderholt and other senior officials • A private concert from our favorite rock band of all time, local BBQ, and the best entertainment Alabama has to offer Building for America is worth celebrating. Apply for an invite here, spots limited → HadrianAlabama.com
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Varun Gupta
Varun Gupta@Varungupta·
The financialization of the American economy resulted in greater efficiency but less resiliency. Delays cascade; costs overrun; and development withers. The result is a built environment that hasn’t changed since the 1980s, and physical experiences (like air travel) get worse every year.
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Varun Gupta
Varun Gupta@Varungupta·
I'd rather us viscerally experience our lack of magazine depth in Iran, and then fix it, than experience it for the first time in Taiwan.
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Varun Gupta
Varun Gupta@Varungupta·
That's just not true. Hanwha and Hyundai are hardly growing (though faster than Lockheed and HII), and both their gross margins and operating margins are poor. They are still value, not growth stocks. To your other points about contracting and gross margins, we will just have to see ;)
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chris
chris@cwamidon·
Agree primes are imperfect comps. But the global shipbuilding leaders (Hyundai Heavy, Hanwha Ocean, CSSC) still trade 1-3x revenue despite better margins and growth than US primes. Re: contribution margins, today, sure. But will Navy purchase at high margins for a significant amount of time? We already know they seldom sole source (carriers an obvious exception, a function of nobody else being capable of building them), so it’s unlikely that Saronic will be THE naval prime. And are those margins durable as technology commoditizes? I just don’t see neoprimes maintaining huge margins in a politically vulnerable industry. I can hear it already: “why is the taxpayer giving the war industry 30% margins?” +1 on diversifying revenue in the commercial space, but the requirements are going to be very different.
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Varun Gupta
Varun Gupta@Varungupta·
HII and Lockheed trade on earnings because they are not growth stocks (growing revenues 5-10% YoY). And their earnings are poor because of (1) cost-plus contracting and (2) delays, overruns, and outsourcing. And they are defense-only. They serve as poor comps for venture-backed companies that are growing revenues at a dramatically higher clip, command genuine contribution margins, and serve multiple end-customers.
chris@cwamidon

After this round Saronic will be valued around $10B on <$400m contracted revenue spread across a PoP of ~8 years. Huntington Ingalls did $12B last year with a backlog of $50B. Trades at $17B. Is HII undervalued in public markets or is Saronic overvalued in private markets?

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Christian Keil
Christian Keil@pronounced_kyle·
@Varungupta I really can't stand any of the classic business school books
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Christian Keil
Christian Keil@pronounced_kyle·
This is every book that I've read over the past ~12 years, organized into tiers. Please roast my literary taste.
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Stuart Landesberg
Stuart Landesberg@Stu_Land·
Today @Seneca_Systems announces a five year contract with @AspenFireDept to bring a Seneca Strike Team of five aircraft plus a Mobile Air Operations Base to Aspen this summer. This is the first fire department acquisition of an autonomous aerial fire suppression system in the world. It is a testament to the work of the exceptional team at Seneca. And it will protect an irreplaceable natural environment and thousands of Americans, their homes and businesses. We want to work alongside people who make us better. It is a privilege we do not take lightly to roll this out in with Chief Jacob Andersen and the whole extraordinary team at Aspen Fire. Colorado has a long history of wildfire. The famous South Canyon fire in 1994 killed 14 firefighters. 4 of the 5 largest fires in CO history happened since 2020. And now - CO has red flag warnings in February, the middle of winter. The need has never been greater. Technology is our best chance to hold back the effects of wildfire in a changing world. We are grateful for the responsibility and privilege of doing that this summer in Aspen.
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Varun Gupta
Varun Gupta@Varungupta·
@ngeloxyz Companies like SpaceX, Anduril, and Tesla changed the perspective of asset-heavy, capital-intense, as-vertically-integrated-as-possible companies for risk capital. This is why you see even domestic US pension funds funding these businesses, whether directly or indirectly.
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Varun Gupta
Varun Gupta@Varungupta·
You didn't really respond to much of what I said. And US banks haven't generally been a source of "risk capital" since the last time they were, which resulted in the GFC. And US banks have never really been a source of start-up capital (beyond just venture capital) in the United States. See: Intel. Also kind of hard to do that and not create extraordinary asset-liability mismatches (in a country that prioritizes deposit insurance). See: SVB.
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