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<guy in the corner at a party>
"They don't realize the analytical possibilities that LDTI and IFRS 17 will bring to analyzing profitability and risk in the life insurance industry."
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Brett Walden
2.3K posts
Brett Walden
@brett_walden
Here for the fintwit memes. Occasionally post about insurance industry trends.
Katılım Aralık 2011
638 Takip Edilen682 Takipçiler
@jclarkson203 And final expense life insurance sales are $1B per year too
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@AnalystEgg @tangentstyle Demand for IG 30y paper from insurance and pension balance sheets
x.com/i/status/15254…
Brett Walden@brett_walden
Any opportunity to buy 30y paper at 5-6% will be gobbled up to match the ultimate forward rate assumption and extend duration.
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@tangentstyle The bid for IG credit yielding >5% is relentless (and understandably so)
Back up in treasury yields helps
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Watching old commercials with kids... 5th grader: "wait, both kids called her mother, but two dads showed up to spank the kids. Is this a throuple?"
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@jclarkson203 From IL and AZ has always been my #2. Hasn't been a good night in my house
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The Peaky Blinders movie is trash. God Netflix sucks.
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I should probably check with the old man about his portfolio. At xmas, he was reducing PLTR exposure.
Brett Walden@brett_walden
My dad, who struggles to use his iPhone, was updating me on his NVDA and SMCI holdings last week.
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IHSA Boys Basketball Super Sectional at Northern Illinois University - found a rare non-State Farm backboard pad.
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@shidellian @tangentstyle Liability underwriting kills more insurers than asset risk.
However, it's very difficult to go seriously wrong on fixed annuities... maybe with certain withdrawal guarantees, but still very hard.
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@tangentstyle The latter is what I was wondering about more. And what pressure to alt owned insurers have to consistently generate liabilities to buy affiliate assets? Not necessarily thinking this is a death blow but more that the good times are probably past? Idk I am probably very off
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@tangentstyle Ser, have you not heard about the convergence of private credit and insurance
GIF
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@ExcessDefaults @CuiBonoCapital They didn't realize that most annuities offer 10% free annual withdrawals at the individual level... The convergence is inevitable.
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Personally think this is the right call to gate at 5% with no exception vs doing one time gate widening, employees filling the gap, affiliated insurers buying, etc.
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Folks, if you find the guest and his arguments compelling...
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@kieranwgoodwin @jclarkson203 @mcfreedy I haven't read the filings (scanned one), but it's not clear if you are suggesting if the pensions or kuvare bought the senior tranches
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Kudos to $NMFC for making a TRUE 3rd party sale to Coller Capital.
I would love to know the cover since COLLER HAS BEEN THE ONLY BUYER OF CV in PC. Pin cushion??
But price wasn't 94% of PAR rather FAIR VALUE as of 12/31.
Analyst friend of mine calc'd price was around 85
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@bauhiniacapital The super long duration nature of their products have always been interesting given the lack of investible universe in JPY, driving the need for equity holdings and foreign investments. The complexity of the biz model for a generally conservative culture is an interesting result.
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@brett_walden input costs (most lifers have medical/cancer/similar add-ons to policies as a way to upsell) and inflation, longevity, and super-long-dated cashflows.
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BREAKING: unrealised losses (lower NAV) on marks of domestic bonds held to maturity are offset equally by the gain on reduced (lower NAV) mark to market of liabilities (see IFRS 17.
That’s the way insurance works.
Japan is moving to a new solvency-based regime, different
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter
BREAKING: Unrealized losses on domestic bond holdings for Japan’s 4 largest life insurers jumped +125% YoY in Q4 2025, to a record $86 billion. Paper losses have surged +546% since Q1 2024. Nippon Life, the largest Japanese insurer and the world’s 6th largest life insurance company, leads with $36 billion, marking a +115% jump YoY. This comes as Japan's long-term government bond prices have collapsed at one of the fastest rates on record over the last 3 years, fueling stress across the country’s insurance sector. In response, a Japanese accounting group is proposing to relax rules on how life insurers record unrealized losses. Pressure on Japan's financial institutions is reaching its limits.
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@bauhiniacapital Changes in capital regime, accounting, cross-holding rules, and maco are creating exciting market dynamics with lifecos.
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held certain fixed income instruments in non-HTM accounts because of the changes in surrender rates, longevity estimates, and premium competition. Keeping them out of HTM accounts was operationally conservative.
The new J-ICS/ESR regime requires tighter ALM duration management
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@Cap1talCap1tal @yungmetronome @milken_cookies I'm not sure if the valuation on the remaining tranche was set at the first purchase or not, but the insiders kept a lot of stock in the 2019 deal (not going to double check the robot if all these numbers are exactly correct, but lines up with what I remember)
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I.e. consumer auto and residential are ubiquitous with productivity as a short-term catalyst.
Specialty and life require a second derivative from a data perspective.
Int'l more similar to latter scenario across products.
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In the short vs. Intermediate term, there is a substantial difference between insured vs population (widely avaliable) data in P&C vs life.
Greg@GS_CapSF
Banks and insurers might be longs as structural beneficiaries in the AI era. Back office tasks get automated and margins improve. Software has a large opportunity to improve efficiency as well. #ArtificialIntelligence
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