Willis Cap

Cleveland research report....Anthropic is emerging as a competitive threat for SAP and enterprise apps more broadly. See potential for our signings growth to flatten out as a result. Our clients are closely evaluating Anthropic as we speak and reconsidering their 9-figure SAP investment.

Why is it so hard for US politicians to "rule anything in or out" when it comes to US troops on the ground in the Iran War? It's not that hard, folks. The answer is 100% 'no.' Look at the topographical map below and note the virtually impregnable *series* of mountain ranges along the entire Western side of the country. Note, too, the green, level terrain of Iraq to the west, and realize that when I was part of the US invasion force into Iraq in 1991 (and the US coalition in 2003), we were able to drive into Iraq from friendly countries, over level terrain, where the defending force had nowhere to hide or defend from. Iran, in contrast, is built for defense. We simply do not have the number of troops in our entire ground forces that could be mustered to make such an attack, and even if we foolishly did order them in, they would be defeated in the many mountainous ridges and valleys that give decisive advantage to the defending force. In short, yes, reject any idea of a ground invasion of Iran. It would be suicidal, and on par with Hitler's fatal decision to invade the USSR in September 1941. It would result in the destruction of the American empire.

VC IRR decay for 2017 and 2018 has been bad. And this was before the SaaSpocalypse. IRRs driven by big positions held at last round valuations. What would they look like at true fmv?

Wide divergence between perceived future value and near term earnings in software (chart via Goldman Sachs) "double-digit earnings growth last quarter, with profit margins for the industry sitting at record highs and roughly twice those of the rest of the market"

If one stock defined the SaaS era, it was Constellation Software. It rolled up 500+ niche software firms on premise that their products were so embedded in customers’ workflows that demand was relatively inelastic to steep annual price hikes. It’s now the face of AI disruption.

There's some really sticky software with big customer bases trading at, like 3x revenue (I know, I know), where you kinda have to believe management are some of the dumbest people alive for these stocks to not work