Alphadoggie

$INTC Here is how Intel goes to $100

$NVO (Novo Nordisk) - Potential Double from here! Full Stock Review and Price Target. I don’t think most people are separating price headwinds from actual demand fundamentals and I see big upside from today's price ~$44. Here’s the reasons why I bought in this week: 1) First why $NVO got punched in the face. 2025 was still big: - DKK 309B sales, - DKK 127.7B operating profit, - DKK 102.4B net profit. They're based in Denmark so use Danish Krone (DKK) But management told the market: - 2026 is a digestion year. They guided adjusted sales and adj op profit growth of -5% to -13% (CER). i.e. Negative - that’s the whole story behind the multiple compression. Drivers of the ugly mangement guidance: - Lower realised prices, - “Most Favoured Nations” impacts in the US, - Their drug semaglutide patent expiry in some international markets, and - Increased competition. 2) What people miss: - Novo is still basically a GLP‑1 logistics and execution company - Their business is now extremely concentrated: ~94% of sales are Diabetes and Obesity care (rare disease 6%). - The key point is their core product and sales (i.e. GLP‑1) is expanding… and when pricing turns will rip! They’re one of the biggest operators in the category, and the game is now they can they ramp up supply, access and net price, not can GLP‑1 work? - we know it does! 3) The bull case: If you’re bullish like me, the bet is basically: - Volume growth with new formats outweighs price compression. Wegovy pill opportunity: - FDA approved Wegovy pill (once‑daily oral semaglutide 25mg) late Dec; launched early Jan. Early uptake looks positive: - 50k weekly scripts by Jan 23 (with a lot of it self-pay). Cash pricing is aggressive ($149–$299), distribution broad through retail and telehealth) which means Novo is trying to win the consumer channel before payers fully open! If this pill becomes the default starter GLP‑1 (because injections are a psychological hurdle for consumers), you can get rapid adoption even if net price is lower! Also, their next-gen pipeline can completely re-rate their stock price: - A key fear in$NVO has been Lilly has the better product. - Novo’s answer is basically to bring better meds with higher doses and combos. Examples of this: 1. CagriSema (cagrilintide + semaglutide) is already moving through pivotal work / submitted in the US. 2. Higher-dose semaglutide (7.2mg) submitted in the US. 3. Amycretin / zenagamtide: Phase 2 showed meaningful weight loss and A1c improvement, moving into Phase 3 programs (obesity and T2D). If even one of these becomes best-in-class you will get a rip in the share price! Manufacturing is also their hidden moat - Novo’s been spending a lot here - They’ve been expanding capacity and also took control of three fill-finish sites (via the Catalent / Novo Holdings deal) to ramp production and reduce bottlenecks. Now Valuation: - Their valuation has crashed from the hype bubble of GLP-1 - dropped 70% from it's peak in summer of 2004. - At today’s levels (currently a $47), the stock is priced like a mature pharma facing pressure (because… it is, right now). $NVO is around 13x trailing earnings territory. Compare that to $LLY sitting at a dramatically richer multiple. If you get even a modest re-rate when growth normalizes, the upside is meaningful. My price target math: 1. If EPS stabilizes and the market pays 18x again: that’s roughly a mid‑$60s stock. 2. If sentiment turns and you get 22x you can talk $80+ (i.e. a double from here!) That’s the bull path... not GLP‑1 cures the world, but just pricing stops falling faster than volume rises! Risk: - Lilly keeps the crown - Tirzepatide has been the market share winner. If Lilly holds the clinical edge and wins the oral format race next, Novo fights from behind. - Concentration risk - when 94% of your sales are diabetes/obesity, there is a risk, but again this is a huge market and only growing! Management and CEO (because this actually importnat in a pricing war): - Novo’s CEO is Mike Doustdar. What I like here is he’s not a storyteller CEO he started at Novo as an office clerk in 1992, climbed through finance/IT and emerging markets i.e. he's come from the bottom all the way up! He knows his business! - He ran International Operations and that segment more than doubled sales (so he’s lived inside execution hell). Insider Sales: One thing I always watch: executive selling. Doustdar sold shares back in 2024 (pre‑CEO) at the top but none since! What I’m watching and will continue to add to my position: 1. Wegovy pill: does it move from self-pay momentum to payer-covered scale? 2. Net price - does the bleed slow? (gross-to-net is a key measure) 3. CagriSema and higher-dose sema: do they look meaningfully better vs current options? 4. Supply: can they keep product available without torching margins? $NVO is a world-class chronic disease franchise with it's obesity drugs moving from scarcity to competition, which means pricing power is dropping. If you believe obesity treatment is still a 10-year expansion and Novo’s pill and next-gen pipeline keeps them relevant (I DO!), this drawdown is actually a huge opportunity to buy at a discounted price. If you think GLP‑1 becomes a commodity and Lilly/payers crush the economics, then it's a value trap. That's how I see it - its too attractive a valuation to not enter a position on, I've been accumulating in the $40's over the last number of weeks!

Traders that keep trying to short the S&P because Crude Oil is still above $100 😏

$ES and $NQ levels, less is more, if having 6 screens made you a better trader (it does not, there is no empirical study nor attention based study that demonstrates human cognition benefits from more screens, if anything this leads to decision fatigue AND reduced attention based performance.

🐝🐝🐝

U.S. TO WITHDRAW AIRCRAFT CARRIER FROM MIDDLE EAST The Pentagon will send the USS Gerald R. Ford home in the coming days after a 10-month deployment, easing strain on its ~4,500 sailors. The move reduces U.S. military firepower in the region as Iran peace talks remain stalled.

$NOK All of a sudden the og phone maker everyone forgotten about is sooooo back…

🚨 China's Real Estate Market has erased all gains from the last 20 years

$ES and $NQ, drop a like/RT, so we know to keep posting.

🚨 IT’S OFFICIAL: Over 4.3 MILLION people have been removed from food stamps under President Trump — “A lot of that is FRAUD,” per Brooke Rollins Big win! 🔥 Keep purging the fraud, and people who simply DON’T NEED IT because they can WORK

🚨 BREAKING CHINA’S REAL ESTATE MARKET JUST CRASHED TO A 20-YEAR LOW, LOSING A 1/4 OF ITS VALUE. SOMETHING EXTREMELY BAD IS HAPPENING…

Now $4.20 $INDI