Alex

3.6K posts

Alex

Alex

@buffetsalpha

Katılım Nisan 2016
96 Takip Edilen146 Takipçiler
Alex
Alex@buffetsalpha·
@SoundDobad That nose job is a travesty. He already had a pretty boy face to begin with, the wide nose was much needed contrast. Now he just looks like a 5th grader.
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Alex
Alex@buffetsalpha·
@escapefrommelos The example of Byzantine and Ottomans (among others) is also why I think that the modern idea of high Arabic civilization is mostly a myth, or at the very least heavily exaggerated. The Middle East couldn't be so backwards if it truly had a high civilization in the past.
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Melian Refugee
Melian Refugee@escapefrommelos·
I think turkey (türkiyë?) is the only muslim country on earth where you can walk around like that, and the worst thing that will happen is some "instagram photographer" will semi-surreptitiously film you with his meta glasses
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Alex@buffetsalpha·
@escapefrommelos Turkey is living proof that, even when they fall, higher civilizations still end up assimilating their lesser developed conquerors. Ottomans were nomadic steppe people not much different from Mongols, but exposure to Byzantine civilization radically transformed them.
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Alex@buffetsalpha·
@PositivFuturist You have to assume at this point that the entire EU leadership is infiltrated and compromised. Only a direct enemy of the EU would rule the way the current leadership does.
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Andy
Andy@PositivFuturist·
Just to be clear.. The UK is choosing to forgo the AI revolution so that it can instead solve 1% of global emissions via economic degrowth and the adoption of intermittent renewable energy sources with no means of buffering or storage.
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Alex@buffetsalpha·
@zerohedge 170 billion operating cash flow vs some guy promising to go to mars
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Alex@buffetsalpha·
@zerohedge The greatest financial engineer / huckster in the history of the world. The perfect expression of the absolute degeneracy of the age.
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Alex@buffetsalpha·
@robustus Except Buffet's CAGR is real, not financial engineering paper wealth. I'd be shocked if in practice Elon could re-deploy even 10% of his supposed "net worth". Of course he doesn't need to, he can just tap the cult whenever he needs funding.
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Alex@buffetsalpha·
@AmericanNumbers Ironically the move from 2 points for victory to 3 points was made with the exact purpose of disincentivizing draws. Now with the new group format they are going backwards.
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Cruel Angel PHD🇵🇷
Cruel Angel PHD🇵🇷@AmericanNumbers·
Possible causes: Water breaks are allowing weaker teams to not get exhausted late and concede Water breaks and fast clocks mean that games are significantly shorter than historically. The ball is helping the goalies by being easy to grip and hard to curve down or knuckle.
Cruel Angel PHD🇵🇷@AmericanNumbers

Based on the historical % of draws in the last 12 World Cups in the Group stage (24.6%), the probability of randomly having 8 draws out of the first 16 matches? 2% Throw in that the ELO difference for the average match is higher than ever and something's changed.

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Alex@buffetsalpha·
@AmericanNumbers EURO 2024, which also featured most 3rd placed teams advancing, had a 39% draw rate in the group stage. But because the WC tends to feature a much wider skill distribution than the EUROs, the incentive for the better teams to play for draws is even higher.
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Alex
Alex@buffetsalpha·
@SmallCapSmarts It is low float and insiders are still in lockup period. There is no material selling pressure for now. Plus you have a large amount of Elon cultists who buy regardless of price.
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small_caps_automated
small_caps_automated@SmallCapSmarts·
I’m honestly not sure what’s going on with $SPCX The plan was a slow grind up as ETFs eventually funneled this into y’alls 401ks, but now I’m not even sure. A $2.5 trillion company trading like some low-float trash IPO.
small_caps_automated tweet media
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Alex
Alex@buffetsalpha·
@pernasresearch Is that it? Or is it the complete and utter lack of anti trust? In any other walk of life it would be absurd to even imagine government allowing monopolies like Microsoft or Google. Yet for internet/software cos it's taken as given.
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Pernas Research
Pernas Research@pernasresearch·
This is a clear example of the vulnerability in an oversimplified mental model: Broad efficiency gains → accrue to customers → profitability benefits are uncertain. That may apply well to textiles or other commodity industries. But when technology diffuses heterogeneously, because firms use it in very different ways, the model breaks down.
Alex Morris (TSOH Investment Research)@TSOH_Investing

@viggy_krishnan @JohnHuber72 FWIW

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Cody Blakeney
Cody Blakeney@code_star·
Can someone tell me if Le Chaton fat is real or an amazingly elaborate joke?
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fabian
fabian@fabianstelzer·
Rumour mill going crazy on this new mistral model - Napoleon class model with >10T params - smokes Mythos on VoltaireBench - for safety reasons only outputs French language code
fabian tweet media
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Alex@buffetsalpha·
@ContrarianCurse They did the same before GFC so if history rhymes...
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SuspendedCap
SuspendedCap@ContrarianCurse·
ECB hiking was majorly stupid
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Polymarket Sports
Polymarket Sports@PolymarketSport·
🚨BREAKING: Someone just put $1M on Spain to WIN their match vs Cape Verde today This pays out is $1,085,943.48 on Polymarket
Polymarket Sports tweet mediaPolymarket Sports tweet media
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Alex
Alex@buffetsalpha·
@zerohedge It's so funny watching these clueless AI nerds discover stuff sports modelers have known for ages.
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zerohedge
zerohedge@zerohedge·
From Goldman's Delta-1 head, Rich Privorotski: "A panel of Gemini 3 Flash, Kimi K2.6 and DeepSeek V4 Pro, fused together, beat solo GPT-5.5 and solo Opus 4.8 outright, while landing within 1% of Fable 5 at roughly half the cost.” (Openrouter -X ) If true, this is exactly the direction of travel the market has been underestimating. The race for intelligence increasingly feels as though it is shifting from a handful of labs toward model orchestration and open-source ecosystems. That is simultaneously bullish and bearish. Bullish because lower costs and broader access should ultimately drive more token consumption and more compute demand. Bearish because it accelerates token deflation and raises questions around the durability of model economics. The trillion dollar question remains whether lower intelligence costs ultimately create more demand than they destroy pricing power."
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Alex
Alex@buffetsalpha·
@zerohedge If even the supposed "big winner" of this entire AI charade needs to finance with debt, the end is close.
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Alex@buffetsalpha·
@ByrneHobart It's Musk. If you had a penny for every time he pumped his bag with made up numbers and false promises, you'd be rivaling his wealth. No, SEC doesn't care. We live in the age of grift and scam.
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Byrne Hobart
Byrne Hobart@ByrneHobart·
I'm not a securities lawyer, but I think they may technically have to file an updated prospectus with this guidance. Also, I think there's no safe harbor here as there would be with regular guidance. Fun times.
Byrne Hobart tweet media
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Alex
Alex@buffetsalpha·
@shakoistsLog Asking customers what they want/like is a sure fire way to end up with a shit product. All successful product people know that the customer is clueless moron who doesn't know what he wants. It's up to the product people to give him what he doesn't even know he wants.
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shako
shako@shakoistsLog·
it's insane to me openai expects me to read two answers and pick the best one for their a/b test metrics. just totally data science slop brained.
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