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Dan
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Dan
@robustus
https://t.co/vYu7T6SiXO https://t.co/KL8jAIlktv https://t.co/JP5mnIuupl
Terran System Katılım Mart 2008
1.2K Takip Edilen34.9K Takipçiler
greatest market bubble in human history in fact
merp@0xMerp
Can simultaneously be true that we are in a bubble and that AI is going to continue changing the world
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Dan retweetledi
Every generation of leftists seems to just hate whatever new thing most represents capitalism and is making life better.
Then they forget and move on to the next one.
First they obsessed over Walmart. Its crime was a wider range of goods and lower prices.
Then Amazon was the issue, because it also gave low prices but also brought unimagined variety and convenience. One click order to get anything in the world overnight, sane people would've been singing its praises, but they specifically targeted them.
Now it's data centers, the main engine of economic growth. Populist rightoids are joining them.
Good thing about the American system is that it's too deadlocked and too subject to special interest influence to wipe out whatever is new. So data centers will make life better, and then they'll hate the next thing.
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Wait till she finds out about the quality of American public schooling
Jill Filipovic@JillFilipovic
Right, if homeschooling is actually super high quality, then homeschooling families should not object to being evaluated, tested, and checked-in-on to make sure their kids are actually learning.
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Dan retweetledi
The current kerfuffle is that the EU decided to try to take Americans’ 1A rights away by betting global companies will default to the most restrictive standard.
The point of the GRANITE Act was to make it rational to fight back and irrational for the EU to try to enforce.
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Dan retweetledi
NASA HAS RELEASED OVER 12,000 IMAGES OF THE ARTEMIS II MISSION.
Unbelievable perspectives captured by the Crew! The aurora on the eclipse is incredible.
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Dan retweetledi
I’ve been saying for awhile that AI capex will be a 2% tailwind to GDP growth this year. In fact, according to a new report from Morgan Stanley, the numbers are even stronger — more like 2.5% this year and over 3% next year.
And this understates the impact of AI for two reasons:
(1) This is just investment by 5 hyperscalers; it doesn’t include all the startups and other companies investing in AI.
(2) Capex is the investment to create the token factories; it doesn’t count the economic activity resulting from what happens inside the token factories. Those tokens are now being used to generate code (bespoke software) that will increase productivity throughout the economy. The ROI on capex is likely to dwarf the capex itself, which is why investment continues to grow.
In Q1, AI was already 75% of GDP growth. That trend is likely to continue. Technology leadership has always been America’s great strength, and it’s driving the economy forward.
Polls may show that AI is not popular, but economic growth is. At this point, stopping progress in AI would be equivalent to halting the U.S. economy.
Holger Zschaepitz@Schuldensuehner
Morgan Stanley has again raised its capex forecasts for the five hyperscalers Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle. It now expects them to spend about $805bn this year, up from a previous estimate of $765bn. For next year, the forecast has been lifted from $951bn to $1.1TRILLION. To put that into perspective, their 2026 spending alone would be roughly equal to what all non-tech companies in the S&P 500 spent combined in 2025. The expected ~$800bn for 2026 is nearly double 2025 levels and about three times what was spent in 2024.
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@typesfast Just stop increasing the budget. Freeze spending at 2026 levels for a minimum of 10yrs. Inflation will bring things more into balance over time.
Bonus points if you *cut* spending 1%/yr for a decade or something.
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We should probably fix this. What are the best ideas?
sourcery@sourceryy
.@friedberg says "California is functionally bankrupt": "People don't realize how screwed California is. I worry that if California falls, so does the union." "We're $250 billion to $1 trillion short." "If it was the federal government, they would just print more money. California doesn't have the ability to print money, so California has to pay this out, and you can't restructure retirement benefits." "There's a Supreme Court case in California that said once an employee has been offered retirement benefits, even if they're currently an employee, you can never restructure their retirement benefits. It has to stay forever." "And the state cannot declare bankruptcy. There's no way for the state to functionally declare bankruptcy. There's no law to allow it." "No state has ever declared bankruptcy, and the the retirement benefits sit senior to the bonds in California. So you have to pay out the retirement benefits before you pay out all the bond holders that have loaned California the money that they use to run all their programs and services." " This isn't about taxes and Billionaire Tax Act. I don't think you can tax your way out of this problem. People will just leave the state." "California's functional bankruptcy is a major risk to the country and we need to figure out what we can change to fix it." At the @HillValleyForum 2026
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@antoniogm When someone talks about AI hallucinations in 2026, all that tells me is they use old models.
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AI skeptic: But AI will often completely hallucinate and have utterly delusional confidence in its conclusions.
Battle-scarred veteran PM: So will human engineers...
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Dan@robustus
@gladstein @freddienew @profplum99 We can safely ignore anything that guy has to say about bitcoin, since he showed up to that debate on Grant Williams pod with Nic Carter totally unprepared, willing to massively misrepresent data, and with a profoundly arrogant disposition oozing with unearned confidence.
QME
Dan retweetledi
Spirit Airlines wanted to merge with Jet Blue. Elizabeth Warren, Senator from Massachusetts, worked with the Biden administration to block the merger.
Now the company is out of business and 17,000 people are without a job.
Typical big government leftist meddling.
Politicians are not the answer. Not only do they not know more than the private sector, they know less. Markets work. Nanny state bureaucrats can do nothing but use the power of government force and meddle. Same story every time.
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Dan retweetledi
Demand for AI-exposed professions, like software engineering, is booming. This is unsurprising to anyone who (unlike Dario Amodei, apparently) understands Jevons Paradox.
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Eth def in the running for #2 imo. But measuring this stuff quantitatively is notoriously difficult. My opinion is based on my gut feel from the communities. Communities which fight a lot and have multiple power centers are arguably more decentralized. Zcash community feels like a good mixture of fights a lot, and has high concentration of "true believers" in the mission. Again, just a gut feel. Someone else can try and quantify.
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You can just download the bitcoin blockchain and look at every block (with your own eyes/code) and sum the results. You cannot do that with zcash because there's no information visible to sum for shielded pools! So you have no choice but to trust/audit the (mathematically complex) zk code.
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Dan retweetledi
Dan retweetledi
This is so stupid. Ultimately it ends up at full KYC across the internet, if people don't push back hard now.
These laws are signed by politicians who are either trying to create an even bigger surveillance state, or are hopelessly technically illiterate & thus unfit for office
Tom's Hardware@tomshardware
Utah first state to hold websites liable for users who mask their location with VPNs — law goes into effect, designed to prevent bypassing age checks tomshardware.com/software/vpn/u…
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Dan retweetledi
Tesla Self-Driving has just crossed 10 BILLION miles traveled!
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For completeness... My rough heuristic is: saying ignorant or negative stuff about Bitcoin is fine, *unless*: you keep doing it, publicly & arrogantly, for years, with broken data and/or arguments, despite knowledgeable and patient people trying to correct your misconceptions.
That heuristic puts Mr Plum squarely in the same lot as Nouriel Roubini, Peter Schiff, David Gerard, Jim Rickards, Peter Zeihan, etc.
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Isn't it interesting that when Bitcoin is critiqued on "first principles" we're told, "Oh, ignore the maxis..." but when criticized for financialization/co-option the response is "That's not what the OGs think!"
Bitcoin is not sound money
Casey@former_earther
@JacobKinge Bullshit you’re mistakenly reading normies and totally missing the real OGs actually responsible for getting Bitcoin to where it is
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@freddienew @gladstein @profplum99 I didn't even bother to see what this particular argument is about. Don't need to; profplum's opinions on bitcoin deserve 0 time.
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