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carterBTC
54 posts
carterBTC
@carter_trader22
Market mechanics. Positioning & behavioral risk. Why traders lose — before they do.
Katılım Kasım 2022
173 Takip Edilen38 Takipçiler
noticed a massive participant doing something similar to what I do, flow semantics
i sided with them all day, and they also took the same direction as me when i flipped
not sure who it was, but we moved the market together since last night.
they have been out of the books for several hours, things got really hard to move once they stopped
carterBTC@carter_trader22
@mmmatt whats the basis of your trades u took? orderflow, feelings, market maker insights? ^^
English
@BitbullTrading Wie kann das sein dass btc bei solchen news ansteigt?
Deutsch
LFG! #Bitcoin hol dir die Shorts!
Sieht weiterhin stark bullisch aus!
Bitbull@BitbullTrading
Vektorkerzen und Imbalance wurde nun geholt! Perfekter Hit auf das Daily Open! Das darf jetzt NICHT brechen! Unter uns brutal viel Long Positionen! #Bitcoin
Deutsch
@BleackyAirdrops @KillaXBT but when nobody is watching for 50k
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$BTC
Delta has flipped back to positive, with longs building at the highs.
It’s the same pattern we’ve seen for the past 8 months.
Pay attention. Distribution is textbook in a range.
Killa@KillaXBT
They keep telling you everyone is bearish on $BTC and that everyone is shorting. That couldn’t be further from the truth. Delta is extended green, and we’ve had 8 consecutive green daily candles. I’ve seen this movie before. Just when people start believing we’re "back", the entire move gets erased in a few red candles. People keep saying, “Killa, you’re a perma bear.” No, I’m not. It just so happens I created my account during the final year of the bull run. Believe me, you’ll know when I’m net long for new ATHs. Right now just isn’t that time. People are too quick to jump the gun, calling bottoms, and months later those tweets get buried. I don’t play that game. Yes, we could extend slightly higher. The 76–78K region is the upper area to watch. But buying there essentially means buying the first bearish retest in a strong macro downtrend. The trend is not bullish. It doesn’t take a genius to see that. The market hunts leverage, that’s its objective. The cartel needs to liquidate traders to make money. The house always wins. Once enough liquidity builds below, they’ll erase this artificial move up like it never happened. You call it strength. It isn’t. It’s an orchestrated TWAP bid designed to distribute into limit sells when the time is right. The big players, the hedge funds, have been shorting since 120K. Yet all it takes is a 10–20% bounce for people to start calling for targets 20–30% higher than their previous ones. It’s a shame. The same thing happened at 120K when people were calling for 150K. I remember the names. The same thing happened at 96K when people were calling for 100–104K. And now it’s happening again, with people calling for 80–85K.
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Was geht denn beim SP ab?😳😳
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter
BREAKING: The S&P 500 erases all losses and turns green on the day.
Deutsch
I’m not sure why so many people glamorize prop firms as something positive for the trading industry when their entire business model relies on trader failure.
It’s simply another way of extracting money from the industry.
Instead of it going into market makers pockets, it goes into theirs.
There’s a reason new prop firms keep appearing, the profit margins are high.
The statistics speak for themselves,
Out of 100 traders over 5 years:
Prop firm traders: 1–3% remain profitable
Traders using their own capital: 3–8% remain profitable
Prop traders fail faster because of strict drawdown rules, time pressure, and constant evaluation resets.
You’re trading inside a system designed to make an already difficult profession even harder.
I’m just stating the reality. Whether people like it or not.
English
@ThalexGlobal Thanks for consistently posting great stuff. Do you have a link to this IV graphic?
English
Btc IVs jumped over the weekend in reaction to the news of conflict escalation, especially for nearby expirations.
For example, the 66k 06-Mar call went from <50% IV to 60% currently.
Option prices are adapting to real world uncertainty:
• The repricing is mainly through atm IV
• Put-call skew didn't really move this weekend
• Price up -> vol down correlation is now overwritten
English
we recently had our highest single signup day in our history, with over 200k+ users and many of the largest funds in the world (by aum). and we aren't taking this lightly.
having seen a few cycles ourselves, we've been avoiding the regular scheduled marketing posts and have been keeping our heads down in full build mode over the last quarter.
starting next month, we will be announcing a new release almost everyday with our biggest release ever at the end of the month. stay tuned 👀
(yes this is the announcement of announcements)
English
So much gamma to scalp.
Let's look at this price action through the lens of a delta-hedge straddle. This made a bit of money through this PA, where the stand-alone straddle wouldn't have.
Below you see hedging PnL.
To understand it, start from the fact that the convexity of a long options position means it always 'outruns' its linear hedge.
If you're long a delta-hedged call and the market goes up, the call delta increases, making you net long. On price down, call delta shrinks, making you net short.
As you re-hedge, you are selling into rallies and buying into dips.
Initially, this looked like a pretty bad idea. On the sell-off, the put became dominant, position got short delta, which you hedged by buying perpetuals lower ... and lower. Realized PnL (green) found some relief in bounces. Unrealized PnL (yellow) went down with the ship. On the way up, you made it all back. Realized PnL was grateful for the low average buy price and sold all the way up as the straddle flipped to long delta.
Buy low, sell high. That in a nutshell, is gamma scalping.
Just be aware, that this is very path-dependent. You want chop, preferably mean-reversionary chop, similar to what you'd want with a grid bot.
If long gamma, you could lose on delta-hedging, if price starts to trend and/or chops away from your strike when you're no longer sensitive to gamma.
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