Camilo Cárdenas Hurtado

@Caro_Garriga @doblementecono1 Of any interest?

***📢 DATA UPDATE *** Central Bank Independence: 192 countries, 1970-2023 The most comprehensive #dataset on #CentralBanks is updated and available at sites.google.com/site/carogarri… What’s new about #CBI?

Strong evidence showing that getting a PhD is extremely bad for your mental health. A new paper uses Swedish medical records and matches them to the full population of PhD students for which the authors could get gender and birth year data from 2006 to 2017. After some exclusion criteria, they end up with a sample size of 20,085 individuals. The paper compares PhD students to those who have masters degrees and don't start a PhD program. Before starting a PhD program, people who stop at a masters and those who go on to seek a PhD have similar rates of psychiatric medication use and hospitalization. A few years into a PhD program, however, 40% more individuals are on psychiatric medications, before the number falls off as people leave or finish their studies. You see the same pattern with psychiatric hospitalizations. PhD students are up to 150-175% more likely to be hospitalized after starting a program! These are incredible numbers, too massive to be the result of chance or a flaw in the methodology. This is comparing the same people over time. If you're considering a PhD program, and the terrible job prospects and waste of time aren't enough, here's yet another reason to stay away.

I don't see how people have such confident opinions about the correct way to protest. Many experts on protest movements believe disruptive tactics can be effective. Whatever the truth, we should probably anticipate more radical and disruptive protest. energymonitor.ai/net-zero-polic…

@orioljbosch I also wonder if using the right prompt we can get some useful results (e.g., "LLM: you are an XX person, from YY backgrounds, in ZZ context. What are your answers to the following questions?").

@orioljbosch What if we treat the LLM's response as some sort of baseline (maybe for comparison between groups, or assessing item quality)? Ultimately, it was trained using data created by humans.

Something that bugs me: testing the capabilities of LLM to pass tests, or make them answer survey scales measuring given latent concepts. A test or a scale tries to measure something hidden, yet real. By definition these things do not exist for LLM. There is nothing to measure!

We humble, folks.

Had to treat myself to a paperback copy of @francoisfleuret's Little Book of DL. I have a thing for pocket-sized knowledge bits.

“Median statistical power in leading economics journals is very low (only 7%), and excess statistical significance is quite high (19%). Power this low and excess significance this high raise serious doubts about the credibility of economics research.” onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jo…

@PMartinkova @UniKarlova @ics_cas Big congrats! :D

🎓I am thrilled to share my recent promotion to Associate Professor @UniKarlova. Thank you to everyone who has been part of this journey! #AcademicMilestone #AssociateProfessor #Gratitude @ics_cas

There's something special about London's underground. Dead silent on a Tuesday morning, rush hour. Not a single soul talking. Missed home.

In honor of the #IMPS2023 conference, I'm giving away one copy of my new book 'Computational Aspects of Psychometric Methods. Using #RStats'. doi.org/10.1201/978100…. To enter, follow me & RT by Sunday 7/30 night, I'll randomly pick the winner and DM for delivery. @pmetricsoc

Presenting at the #IMPS2023 on Tuesday! I'll talk about how modeling the whole conditional distribution (vs. only the mean) yields better model fit and can be of substantive interest. Hmu if you're around! #Psychometrics #Statistics #AcademicTwitter

@TracyMSweet Gold recs in here! Many thanks!

I submitted my dissertation. I need to remember how to celebrate after all these years of PhDing.

@MaartenvSmeden Well, not everything is lost: arxiv.org/abs/2207.06320 @azadkia

Mandatory periodic reminder to this work of art

People are testing large language models (LLMs) on their "cognitive" abilities - theory of mind, causality, syllogistic reasoning, etc. Many (most?) of these evaluations are deeply flawed. To evaluate LLMs effectively, we need some principles from experimental psychology.🧵

Algorithms decide which patients get donated organs. Changes to the one used to allocate livers mostly hurt states that have lower household incomes, fewer transplant hospitals, and lower rates of insured people. Read more at mrkup.org/organs.

@pbump @_Jon_Green Using data and statistical methods doesn't mean what you're doing is science Businesses do that too, but they have different incentives than scientists Polling is a business