philosopher

The other pushback is are you overestimating China’s strength and competence. The economy no longer has the vitality as it used to have. The military strength is a lagging indicator, not a leading one. You could argue the true underlying relative military strength of China vs US already peaked and is on the way down, like we are in the distribution stage of a fallen angel stock. Not obvious to most of people but the ship has sailed. Is there a case to be made that Trump has done enough. The internal weakness in China will take care of itself and a self reinforcing downward spiral

@TMTLongShort What is the most effective way to educate American voters? You should reach a bigger audience than here

I have no problem with the Canadians and Europeans in my comments scolding me when I talk about decoupling. I have a serious issue with the Americans who are rooting for Trump to fail simply because they don’t like his politics despite the obvious negative repercussions losing hegemony will have on our collective children and grandchildren. We are in the shit. Suck it up and vote him out at the polls. Until then STFU if the best you can do is publicly hope that Iran turns into a dumpster fire for our military or that France further undermines our leverage over Europe. If this is too much to ask you don’t deserve to benefit from the fruits of the hard men of the prior century who tirelessly worked to fortify the dominance and lifestyle you currently enjoy.

@TMTLongShort Makes sense. One pushback is what if Xi decides not to pursue Taiwan militarily, after seeing Venezuela and Iran. What is the optimal long term game plan then?

Trump will have Bessent explain to the American populace when it’s time. Too early since the chaos is still beneficial from a game theory standpoint. I personally don’t want a bigger audience. My goal is to reach people who can pushback in an intelligent matter. The broader the distro the worse signal vs noise gets.

@kejca That is a really good signal on the whole situation from the masters of probabilities.

NEWS: Berkshire Hathaway (along with several other insurers) has partnered with the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation to double its reinsurance coverage to $40 billion for ships traveling through the Strait of Hormuz.

@dalibali2 How do you compare this setup to your long china trade when everyone was fleeing?

i just tripled my exposure to shitcos, not even that discerning tbh. just gonna sit on it for a few months. if you see a guy jump off the bridge in CA in the summer, thats me.

@UpslopeCapital Future bag holder of the stock when it turns

Whining about a sellsiders for not being bullish on your stock that‘a gone straight up and supposedly made you lots of money is a thing that ________ do

@doomerzoomer @tbpn What is that logic? Love to hear. Thank you

@CEOStockWatcher Haha. Could be but 1,300 is not that small. Still trying to think the logic why lawyers buy better 😊

@cchen06 Decent chance it’s just a data work due to a relatively low sample size (like 1300 GC buys)

Returns by executive title General Counsel > President > CFO > everyone else

@P_Remarks Better for your health to own these unhealthy biz

@ContrarianCurse Good looking chart. Working on break out. Thank you!

@cchen06 SAIA

Commodity investing check list: >is the demand for your commodity about to inflect? Why? For how long? Yes? Proceed >Can supply respond to this demand? How quickly? Does demand show up much faster than supply can? Is supply impaired for some reason for a period of time? >If supply cannot respond - its a long. If it can, its not I don't care if its trucks or copper, its the same general idea. Trucking is a long because you might actually see the consumer improve at the same time they just tightened the licensing regime and are booting out immigrants

@pennyondollar Makes sense. Thanks. 10 year accumulative FCF exceeds current market cap is a very high bar to screen out names.

Free cash flow. Operating cash flow is a vanity metric because it ignores the actual cost of staying in business (capex). If cumulative profits are high but FCF is low, the business is running on a treadmill, it’s spending all its earnings just to stand still. You can’t spend accounting profits. You can only spend free cash.

Screening for companies where cumulative 10-year profits exceed the current market cap is our favorite starting point. It implies the market expects imminent death. Often, the business is just boring, not dying. If the cash flow matches the profits, the risk-reward skew is massive.

@AstutexAi Biggest concern is the revenue growth - inventory growth deficit gap widening. It never ever ends well in retail

Whoa! $REAL

@paulsaladinomd Thank you for sharing. Is it true shellfish have the highest taurine but you are concerned on the heavy metals in shellfish? Is it worth to consider the trade off between taurine and heavy metal exposure, provided you can get rid of heavy metals through sauna and exercise?

6g of This Reverses Insulin Resistance

@mirandpettinger Music to long suffering snap shareholder

Snap is really crushing for us, so glad we added this channel to our media mix this year, may cross six figures of spend this month 🥳

@P_Remarks Your SNAP profit hopefully will more than dwarf whatever profit or loss from BBWI. That is a pair trade! BBWI board fired a reasonably competent CEO and hired a clueless one. The new one is set out to destroy that margin and free cash flow, with an already fairly levered BS.

@paulsaladinomd Thank you for sharing!

Animal-Based Grocery Haul at Sprouts

@xuwu @OscarFalmer How do you rate the developer ecosystem built by Snapchat for its AR glass and especially the upcoming Specs launch next year? Thank you

In the VR/MR industry, the most underrated force is developers. Bill Gates said it decades ago — hardware only becomes valuable through software. The same logic applies here: every generation of devices only breaks out when developers build the right content and applications. Take the Quest era — going wireless wasn’t just a hardware upgrade. It unlocked new types of experiences like movement-based and sports games, paving the way for hits like Gorilla Tag. From a user perspective, there are two adoption paths: 1. Buy the headset first, then look for what to play. 2. Discover an app they love, then buy the headset to experience it. The second path drives real market growth. Think VRChat, Golf+, ETT — users buy hardware for these apps. We spend a lot of time discussing specs and form factors, but the real purchase trigger is still content. People don’t buy hardware — they buy what the hardware enables. The next wave of growth in the VR/MR industry won’t come from lighter headsets alone, but from developers building must-have, large-scale experiences that make users want to buy devices. That developer force remains the most underestimated driver in the XR industry.