Penny on the Dollar

Macron calling tariffs a “structural turning point” is the most bullish thing he could say for EU chemicals. Structural turning points get structural policy responses.

Today, you really cannot focus on climbing the corporate ladder, relying on a monthly salary, or even building a traditional cash-flow business. These are all dangerous. You need to be invested, deeply invested, in the assets that have the most to gain from a rapidly changing world and environment. It is unlikely that you will be able to outpace the current winners when it comes to AI, robotics. Simultaneously, we are navigating a massive restructuring of the geopolitical order. The era of easy globalization is ending. Central banks are trapped in a cycle where they must devalue currency to service debt. In this environment, holding cash or relying on fixed income is a guaranteed way to lose purchasing power. The financial currents are moving too fast. If you are not invested you are immediately behind. The only true hedge against this dual tsunami of AI deflation and monetary inflation is ownership. We are moving into an era where the divide will not be between the "rich and poor," but between those who own the infrastructure of the future and those who are just users of it. The vast majority of future wealth will accrue to the assets that benefit from these shifts: Do not labor to compete with the machine, own the machine. Put every last dollar in the machine. Or be left behind.

This is ugly. The fact that $VZLA was already paying 200K pesos/month to organized crime just to operate tells you everything about the real cost of doing business in certain Mexican jurisdictions.

Europe's Chemical Sector 'Will Disappear' Under Weight Of EU Green Deal, CEOs Sound Alarm zerohedge.com/geopolitical/e…

Deloitte expects US chemical production to contract 0.2% in 2026. CERA says margin pressure persists into 2027. Wood Mackenzie says "satisfactory profitability" won't return until the 2030s. And $DOW trades at $30, half its Morningstar fair value of $66. Everyone agrees it's terrible. That's the point. The best time to buy cyclicals is when nobody can imagine them recovering.

The goyim released the Epstein files, destroy all of their markets.

BITCOIN EXTENDS FALL, BRIEFLY DROPS BELOW $64,000, LAST DOWN 11.5% AT $64,328

Investing in chemical companies may cause: portfolio corrosion, spontaneous capital combustion, and long-term exposure to shareholder dilution. Side effects include bagholding and explaining to your wife what a ‘turnaround story’ is. $LYB $OLN $DOW $HUN

Selling 400 times the underlying supply and calling it "liquidity" is the ultimate macro magic trick.

Commodity equities at cycle troughs trade like the world will never need steel, fertilizer, or energy again. Then the world needs steel, fertilizer, and energy again.

TACO Wednesday

Risk is back on the menu, and the menu only has one price: higher.

Dr. Al-Qahtani of OPEC: major gap in necessary investment to meet demand growth through 2050 given peaked US shale and peaking non-OPEC supply. Especially when IEA notes global decline rates are accelerating. In short, where is the incremental 19MM bbl/d going to come from?!?

$BAK $PBR A very beautiful picture.

$QQQ -2% and the chems are ripping. Crowded trades unwind. Unloved assets catch a bid. Tale as old as time.

Alagoas Defensoria trying to block the IG4/Braskem deal. Procedural noise, not a deal-killer. Here are my thoughts: open.substack.com/pub/pennyonthe… $BAK

New overhang on $BAK thesis: Alagoas Defensoria Pública just filed with CADE, CVM, and CGU to block the IG4 deal, claiming the restructuring isolates victim assets in a vehicle “without backing.” The same liability I said was 99.5% settled? Regulators now weighing in. This is the tail risk I flagged. But context matters, this is a state public defender’s office, not federal prosecutors. They’re requesting suspensions and audits, not blocking orders. The core thesis remains: irreplaceable assets at 35% of replacement cost, Mexico finally running, IG4 committed. The question was always whether the path clears. Watching CADE’s response closely. Deal timeline was H1 2026

$LYB investment thesis

ISM Manufacturing just broke a 11-month contraction streak. PMI at 52.6 vs 47.9 in December. New Orders at 57.1, highest since Feb 2022. That’s a restocking signal for US commodity chems. The question is whether it’s sustainable demand or tariff front-running. $LYB $DOW $HUN $OLN

Turns out the boring stuff was the hedge all along $LYB $OLN $DOW $CE $HUN