Mama Carlos
1.3K posts

Mama Carlos
@cdelalama
Taking care of entrepreneurs. Startup Embassy Founder. Hacker houses operator since 2012. Frontier Tower SF. I write about coliving: https://t.co/7sj1hNV1UR




BREAKING: All young men between the ages of 17 and 45 are now no longer allowed to leave Germany for more than three months without permission.


It's my birthday and on my birthday I want to recognize all my haters. Haters do the best marketing. Love your haters.



Last year, three German dudes bought a abandoned office tower in downtown SF. They've since turned it into the most tech-infused office in the world in the form of @frontiertower. We sent @kyliebytes to investigate. Full episode here on X and down in the replies for our YouTube channel.




One man mass-predicted the future of technology for 35 years and nobody repriced their worldview. In 1999, Kurzweil said AGI by 2029. Stanford organized a conference to discuss it. They polled several hundred AI experts. 80% said it would take 100 years. Geoffrey Hinton was among them. Kurzweil was the only person in the room who said 30 years. By 2024, Hinton publicly said he was wrong. Metaculus prediction markets moved from 2060 to 2036 to roughly 2028. Sam Altman, Dario Amodei, and Jensen Huang all converged on 2028-2029. Elon said 2026. The consensus moved 70 years closer to Kurzweil. Kurzweil didn’t move at all. What separates his method from the experts who kept updating: he never predicted AI breakthroughs. He predicted compute trajectories. His 1999 model tracked the exponential growth in calculations per constant dollar since 1939. A 75 quadrillion-fold increase. He just followed the curve forward. The experts at that Stanford conference were reasoning from the state of the art. Kurzweil was reasoning from the rate of change. That’s why they had to update every 5 years and he never did. 86% accuracy across 147 predictions. 35 years of receipts. And the next prediction on his list is the one people still laugh off: singularity by 2045, where machine intelligence merges with human cognition. The track record says stop laughing.

It finally happened-my personal move 37 or more. I am deeply impressed. The solution is very nice, clean, and feels almost human. While testing new models in the last few weeks, I felt this coming, but it's an eerie feeling to see an algorithm solve a task one has curated for about 20 years. But at least I have gained a tool that understands my idea on par with the top experts in the field. And I am now working on a completely new level. My singularity has just happened… and there is life on the other side, off to infinity!






