GP

Wow, this post blew up. The replies offer a pretty revealing window into the inanity of how fans think. Two arguments dominate: Argument #1. “Scoreboard, bro.” Yes, the 49ers have been successful under Kyle and John. That’s not in dispute. But we’re adults capable of holding two thoughts at once: this team has won and it has underperformed its ceiling because of poor drafting. Run the counterfactuals. What if they take Creed Humphrey or Quinn Meinerz over Aaron Banks in 21? Nick Bonitto over Drake Jackson in 22? Ladd McConkey over Ricky Pearsall 24? How much better is this roster - right now - with just those swaps? My contention: materially better. Drafts matter. And right now, the 49ers’ draft process is leaving wins on the table, and wasting an elite (and rapidly aging) core and one of the best coaches in the league (albeit I fully acknowledge Kyle shoulders A LOT of blame for the 49ers awful drafting). Argument # 2. “Consensus boards don’t matter and reaches are meaningless.” This is wrong on so many levels. The draft is a market. Picks have value because players have probabilistic outcomes. A top-10 pick is worth more than pick 100 because the odds of landing a good player are materially higher. Let's simplify it. Imagine a draft with 100 players: Top 33: ~50% hit rate Middle 33: ~25% Bottom 34: ~10% The consensus board is just the market’s aggregate view of those probabilities. So when you reach 50–60 picks, you’re implicitly saying: we know something the market doesn’t. You believe a player with a ~10% hit rate actually has ~50%. Occasionally, sure markets misprice assets. But doing this consistently is the equivalent of believing you can beat the market over and over. That’s not strategy, that’s delusion. Over time, the math compounds: A team drafting according to the board will net ~2.55 quality players over 3 drafts A team consistently reaching? Closer to ~1 over those same drafts. That gap is franchise-defining. Now bring it back to the @JohnLynch49ers and the 49ers. By multiple analyses like @SharpFootball, this team reach more often and by great magnitude than anyone else. That *might* be defensible if they hit at a comparable rate on those players. But they don’t. The hit rate on these reaches is atrocious: Ty Davis-Price, Joe Williams, Cam Latu, Jalen Hurd, Aaron Banks… the pattern is clear, especially in rounds 2–4 at and especially at RB/WR. And so of course, what does this team do yesterday? A ~60 pick reach on Stribling and a ~90 pick (!!!) reach on Black. At some point, this stops being contrarian and starts being self-sabotage. The 49ers operate like they’ve cracked the market. In reality, they’re the day trader who thinks they’ve found an edge while taking loss after loss. cc: @grantcohn @Chase_Senior @sportslarryk

So instead of drafting someone who’s most likely better, with a higher ceiling and can potentially start Day 1, they’re hoping their 7th round flier/project takes a massive leap? They lost 2 Super Bowls partly because their OL failed at the worst time. This regime never learns.

Woe to those who manipulate religion and the very name of God for their own military, economic, and political gain, dragging that which is sacred into darkness and filth. #ApostolicJourney #Cameroon vatican.va/content/leo-xi…

hey Claude, sign into Betway and only place winning bets. make no mistakes. keep some profits to yourself while you’re at it

john finally looking to draft some thugs with criminal charges instead of the soft soyboys from academic schools

Meanwhile, the #49ers are still “just happy we made it this far” and “at least made it to 2 Super Bowls” during that same time.

So did the Eagles and they beat him the second time. Quit making excuses.

Seahawks beat us at home for the 1 seed Beat us 41-6 to end our season Steamrolled their way to a Super Bowl win in our stadium Love you faithful, but that’ll do it for me ✌🏽

they raising the 12s flag in your stadium @JedYork

@Lobs_All_Day 2022 was very close. 2022 Demeco was a better coordinator than 2019 Saleh

49ers 2019 defense was the best defense in Kyle's tenure. Crazy thing is our defensive scheme was super vanilla that yr. Imagine if we were actually creative on defense with those players we had all in the start of their prime.

@JavierVeg_ @grantcohn Very true. But also the O-Line especially before Richburg got hurt was legitimately good an had a lot invested into it. The way they were able to run the ball was amazing Staley < Williams Tomlinson >> Burford Richburg >>>> Brendel Person = Puni McGlinchey > McKivitz

@grantcohn @celektime They had 3- 1st on the dline that was more of the reason they made it in 2019

When the 49ers went to the Super Bowl in 2019, their offensive line consisted of three first-round picks, a second-round pick and a seventh-round pick. Now, it consists of one first rounder, one third rounder, one fourth rounder, one fifth rounder and a UDFA.

This shadow on the fresh snow from an LED street lamp

McVay has a lot of the same weaknesses as Kyle, but to a higher magnitude. The difference for him was getting a HOF QB that can negate those deficiencies.

Snead and McVay have two 1's to fix their back 7 Macdonald is modern day Fangio with aura It might be over

@kenwood707 @grantcohn Purdy couldn’t hit that throw to Parkinson if he tried 100 times.

@celektime @grantcohn You need a strong arm to make those passes? Only a few I seen today require more arm talent then what Purdy has

Sean McVay is scheming up 40-yard passes to Colby Parkinson against the Seahawks while Kyle Shanahan is calling speed options for Kyle Juszczyk.

It can't be overstated how much better Matthew Stafford is than Brock Purdy.

@robholmesiv @grantcohn That was a singular idiotic call. Shanahan could easily dial up similar things to McVay but his QB physically can’t beat this team unless the WRs are all elite. Shanny just needs to go tho bc unless he’s got a T5 QB he’s not ever gonna win shit

@celektime @grantcohn The 4th and 1 wasn’t his fault..? Are you that dumb? Like I’m genuinely asking 😭