Chris Fargis
3.9K posts
Chris Fargis
@cfargis
Sports and Prediction markets at https://t.co/FCcDf6dVyl #LGM
New York, NY Katılım Temmuz 2009
732 Takip Edilen3K Takipçiler
Chris Fargis retweetledi
Levie’s Law of AI Psychosis:
The farther away you are from the actual work the more confident you are that humans are no longer needed
I like it
Aaron Levie@levie
CEOs are uniquely prone to AI psychosis because they’re sufficiently distant from the last mile of work that still has to happen to generate most value with AI. So when they play with AI, they see the happy path results, often not considering the next 10 or 20 things that have to happen to get sustainable results from agents. “Look I made this awesome product prototype”. Yes but you didn’t have to review the code before it went into production and fix a bunch of issues. “Look I generated a contract”. Yes but you didn’t verify all the terms before it goes out to the counterparty and didn’t have to wire up all the past contracts to work with. The best thing you can do as a CEO is to use AI a *ton* to figure out the real implications of agents in the enterprise, and come out the other side with an appreciation for both the upside and the real work that goes into them.
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In an era with super juiced parlays and sportsbooks charging ridiculous juice we are still arguing about a point or 2 in poker markup when purchasing what you feel is a good player.
If your horse is a good investment at 1.1 they are probably a good investment at 1.2 if that’s what makes them feel comfortable and fairly compensated for their skills.
Players who feel fairly compensated are more likely to play their best.
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Chris Fargis retweetledi
City leaders are on the front lines of mitigating homeland threats as the Iran war drags on, argues IGA senior advisor Leigh O'Neill in @Newsweek.
newsweek.com/gaps-in-homela…
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incredible stuff here:
closes 20c worse, spots us 15 points from the jump & still gets home easy. no wonder he’s one of the best pro sportsbett…i mean predictors in the world.
lol, who am i kidding, it was always #thunderup, flup just knows ball and how to prime an account 😂
Chris@Flupnolide
Asked for 5m but only gave 50k #dressmaker
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@BigBuckHunterrr and @Flupnolide shooting the shit at lunch be like
ₕₐₘₚₜₒₙ@hamptonism
Just a friendly reminder - these are the quants you’re competing against.
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Chris Fargis retweetledi
I said I would write this article like 2.5 years ago and then got a little busy. It's finished:
"The Lazy Man's Guide to Actually Getting in Shape: How to Turn Health Into a Game You Can Actually Win"
luckymaverick.substack.com/p/the-lazy-man…
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@DustinGouker Citi Field is as far away from LaGuardia as the NJ side of the Walt Whitman bridge is from Citizens Bank Park am I doing this right
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Just tried to text someone about the town pool membership, and my @WisprFlow sent them "Polymarket membership"
@DustinGouker effect, more and more each day
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@mattkalish you got to know when to hold em, know when to fold em
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@cfargis Haha one of my main points was the only people engaging in the conversation are professional advantage gamblers, or employees or investors of exchanges or pro market makers from Wall Street. You’re almost like a megazord of all of those so you must be dying to let it rip
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this morning i bought two more mac minis and spent three hours in the lab building a new agent.
it has one job: to stop me from engaging with these @mattkalish threads.
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@dan_bernstein_ It can happen the way you said, too. Just don't rule out that casual customers could win in aggregate on parlays for a period of time.
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@cfargis Interesting. For what it's worth, I've also heard the sharp thing from some bettors on prediction markets. But I respect your perspective/experience here
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A nuance from my Kalshi parlay losses research: Takers occasionally defeated makers over short timeframes.
Instant parlay pricing can be lucrative, but it is also hard!
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@dan_bernstein_ In my experience working on OSB trading teams, parlay results like this are much more likely to come from short-term variance of lots of public sides hitting at once, rather than from one large trading error.
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@cfargis If a sharp notices a parlay line is ridiculously mispriced, they'll put a lot of money up on it. Delphi News, for example, noted that 94% of NHL parlay losses for makers over a 3-week timeframe came from a single mispriced ticker.
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Chris Fargis retweetledi
I’m looking for a CPA who specializes in trading entity structure, section 1256 tax treatment, and multi-state pass-through taxation for our prediction market operation. DM me know if you know anyone good who you can connect me with.
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Chris Fargis retweetledi
