Charlie

majors future bet updates (before he wins Valspar): Brooks Koepka 45-1 (Masters) Brooks Koepka 60-1 (PGA) Brooks Koepka 45-1 (US Open) Brooks Koepka 66-1 (Open)

Good luck trying to set an over/under vote share line for Binface. I think a few different bracket options would probably work best, along with a Reform vote share market too. Realistically, I think that’s probably all we’ll get unless a few more candidates enter the race, in which case a market on finishing last could become an option as well.

I actually think Farage would have preferred taking on a few different parties rather than going head-to-head with Count Binface. This could end up becoming the anti-Farage vote that people from across the political spectrum can comfortably unite behind, without the usual party loyalties or tactical voting dilemmas. On top of that, Count Binface himself—and the way he campaigns—adds a completely different dynamic to the contest.

Is that the speech that wins him the next general election?

The local elections suggest that no party is likely to secure a majority at the next general election. PBC advised NOM at 10/11; we are now confident the price should be closer to 1.5 (currently 1.66)—Keep an eye out for the Five Lessons Learned from the Local Elections blog.

It’s a good poll for Reform. Farage et al will now use it to their advantage by pushing the idea that it’s a two-horse race, and that a vote for Restore Britain risks letting Burnham in. Expect to hear a lot more of that as they try to squeeze that vote.