Cameron Fredman

When your only tool is a laser pointer, every problem looks like a bored kitten.

Extended version of the hypnosis scene in The Penguin finale. #ThePenguin #ThePenguinFinale

I used to think too much about apostrophes. I still do, but I used to, too.

If Kamala wins I will give everyone in the replies a copy of Mario Party Jamboree

@InternetH0F I suspect a code. "Cassie, here is your first pair of glasses." "Cassie, second pair for you. Attention." "Here is your third task, Cassandra.". The varied wording is suspicious.

This is one of the craziest talents I've ever seen...

@SJohnsdottire In a year the debt collectors will have no way to get at you, now that there are windows and doors blocking the openings.

How does it help to "replace your doors and windows now and don't pay anything for a year?". You still have to pay in a year I don't see the benefit at all.

@ProfRobAnderson Could be a load-bearing sticker.

My plane is delayed with everyone on board so a mechanic can be brought out to replace a missing sticker on an overhead bin.

@shotpianist @PersistentOne3 @rickhasen @hugolowell My bad! :)

@cfredman @PersistentOne3 @rickhasen @hugolowell I know. I'm replying to the deleted post where someone tried to pass off a Colorado statute as if it were in force in Pennsylvania.

New — Elon Musk says on stage at a town hall that America PAC will be awarding $1 million every day until the election to a registered Pennsylvania voter who has signed his petition

@shotpianist @PersistentOne3 @rickhasen @hugolowell The USC in 52 USC 10307(c) stands for United States Code, i.e., federal law.

@PersistentOne3 @rickhasen @hugolowell That's the law in Colorado, not Pennsylvania.

@lewbryson @BadLegalTakes Same. I thought, "is he quoting from the dissent or something?" before finding the third image.

@BadLegalTakes Didn't see that third panel immediately, and I'm like...where's the bad take? And then...wow.

In case you've never heard the howl of an arctic wolf, here it is, it's worth it. 😂

@n00buntu @adamscochran In other words, the analogous question would be "IF you beat your wife, should you go to jail?" A person who did not beat their wife could still answer "yes" without conceding the wife-beating.

@n00buntu @adamscochran No, it's really not. A "when did you stop beating your wife" question assumes a fact you dispute in the part of the question you're not being asked. By contrast, "IF it is proven..." does not.

There is one summary question here: “If it is proven beyond a shadow of a doubt, or by his own admission, that Trump knowingly had his team try and forge documents and defraud Congress to try and overthrow the election, is he unfit for office, and should he face punishment?” Most Trump supporters seem to be only able to reply with: -But what about Biden’s crime. -It’s a fake case. -It’s political weaponization. But they cannot bring themselves to admit that *if* he did it, he should face consequences. That’s how you know they aren’t honest or rational actors. (Or are foreign influence accounts)

"No harm in it, legally at least" written by a lawyer in reference to *checks notes* staging a coup. x.com/capitolhunters…

@OrinKerr Had a crim law prof who famously started every class by yelling out the door, "Last call for a good time!"

It would be funny if professors started class like comics or musicians at a club. "How's everyone doing tonight? C'mon, people, I can't hear you. HOW'S EVERYONE DOING TONIGHT? All right, all right much better." Actually, that would be sad. Never mind.

@PhilAndersUAE @JasonKPargin Maybe largest at the end, but if the model doesn't start the bump at the beginning it's assuming no effect during the convention, which seems a very odd assumption. The shape of a "bump" would still show the last night with a greater effect than the first.

@cfredman @JasonKPargin My view would be that the bump (if it really exists) is largest at the end of the convention, because you have the culmination of multiple nights intense media coverage, and the presidential candidate is the headliner for the final night.

Is Nate Silver's model the last one that still shows Trump favored 60/40 to win the election, or are there others? (Note the first image is NOT from Silver, he is no longer affiliated with 538 and runs his own paywalled site)

@PhilAndersUAE @JasonKPargin I didn't specify whether I was measuring from the beginning or end of the convention. That said, shouldn't the bump measure from the beginning? I.e., wouldn't a campaign get a boost during their convention?

@cfredman @JasonKPargin The convention ended three weeks ago, not “a full month”. If the ‘08 bump track is still in his model today, it equates to a ~1.5% boost for Harris in polls being released right now.

@PhilAndersUAE @JasonKPargin That is not a plausible explanation a full month after the convention.

@JasonKPargin Nate used to have a really aggressive convention-bump adjustment in the old 538 models, and he has been open about it still being there in his new one. I think he will drift into line with other models as the bump falls out of his calculations.

@LuckyDogHotSaus @GeorgePapa19 The economy, abortion rights, immigration, conflict zones... there was simply no way to know these kinds of topics would come up in a presidential debate in advance.

🚨BREAKING: ABC News whistleblower swears under penalty of perjury that the Kamala Harris campaign received questions ahead of time and directed the debate. Affidavit was signed September 9th, the day before the debate. This is a major scandal!

@SCOTUSPlaces Dude. That crossed a line.

@LuckyDogHotSaus @TheRickWilson en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Willful_i…

1/ I'm calling bullshit on the "poor Tim Pool and Benny Johnson didn't knoooooow" in the Putin Payola indictment.