Gregory Chang
2.1K posts
Gregory Chang
@cha12771
Classic movies and the financial markets.
USA Katılım Temmuz 2023
25 Takip Edilen30 Takipçiler
He asked why his grandfather always ate alone in that room. He said that at school the teacher had told them that grandparents are part of the family and they should sit with everyone.
My husband kept eating without looking up at the plate. I didn't know what to answer. My son got up, grabbed a piece of bread off the table and ran into the back room to take it to his grandpa. I was thinking about a lot that night. I know my dad doesn't deserve to end his years feeling like a burden within my home, but I also know that my marriage has become strained every time I try to change this situation. Truth is I'm stuck between the two. Between the man who is my husband and the man who raised me
And honestly I don't know what to do anymore. What do you advise me?
The anonymous story of a follower
Jarhat Pacheco
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My dad is 70 years old and has been living in my house for three years. When he warmed up and could no longer work, it was obvious that he couldn't stay alone in his apartment. I'm his only daughter and I decided to bring him to live with us. My husband wasn't really convinced from the beginning, but at the time he said we'd give it a try.
The house where we live is two stories. Upstairs are the rooms and downstairs is a small room that we used as a cellar. My husband said that room would be my daddy's space. We provide him with a single bed, a fan, a plastic chair and a table where he stores his medicines. It's a room at the back of the courtyard, away from the living room and dining room.
I tried to keep everything normal at first. Served him food and invited him to sit with us at the table. But every time my dad came near the dining room my husband got uncomfortable.
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@zbonecantswim Watch the movie Holiday (1938). Sounds like he should have done it a long time ago.
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Dude one of my co workers just got up and quit mid meeting. Dropped call, starting packing up his desk. Got up, left his laptop and badges behind and Irish goodbye’d the office #BeastMode
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@markminervini That’s a good ratio since you cut your losers quickly.
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Prior to the President’s address, the NDR Hormuz Stress Index began showing early signs of easing. Crude markets are tight, overbought and sentiment is excessively optimistic. Overbought conditions have historically seen low or below average returns but not necessarily outright declines. The combination of an elevated z score and a falling Stress Index would suggest crude prices are increasingly vulnerable to the downside. However, if the Stress Index reverses and climbs back to elevated levels, mean reversion becomes more unlikely.
Overbought and oversold conditions can produce nice counter-trend rallies, but you have to be very careful because they can also indicate the start of something more significant and may not turn on the schedule you anticipate.
This is why when I fade a strong market I do it from a very tight entry with a minimal stop loss, and use intraday progress as a cushion to "earn" the right to take overnight risk. If I can't time the trade well and get myself at a decent profit intraday, I generally just punt the position and I won't take the overnight risk.
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@BryanSmithRISI I may be wrong but the cyclical lows may not be in yet.
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Bond vigilantes are back baby! We are buying at cyclical lows and getting huge yields for years to come. 💪 $TLT $PDI $IIM
Lisa Abramowicz@lisaabramowicz1
This past week, long-term bonds had second largest ever outflow and largest since March 2020: BofA, EPFR data. Strategists led by BofA's Michael Hartnett expect “policy panic” to avoid recession and are recommending going long yield curve steepeners.
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@TiltFolio @JoachimMo1985 Good strategy but $TLT May gap down while $XLE gaps up tomorrow but I like the play.
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@JoachimMo1985 Agreed.
About to take the L on long $TLT (entered March 2 at the open) and will rotate into $XLE later today - also at the open.
Nice to have the "hot hand" - but as you know, that doesn't last forever.
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Pro tip for showing trading results. Do this and people will like you even more and you get much more credibility.
Joachim Moser@JoachimMo1985
@jd_tradez Lot's of people and also me are skeptical if people only show their big months,trades, etc. never posting a loss. Show how trading is and don't do whitewashing, you will get much more likes if you show how it is. It is much more authentic.
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@traderhc @Timsmit33432225 @RazorSharpDNA The 2 year is okay but you may be trapped if and when the 30 year hits well over 5%. Gotta take a shot if curve flattens out.
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Tough to put a precise floor on $TLT because it depends on what's driving yields higher . inflation expectations or term premium.
Right now the 30Y is at 4.88% and the real problem is core PCE still stuck at 3.06% with the Fed on hold. If we get a stagflationary impulse from this Iran situation . oil ripping while growth slows . the long end could reprice another 30-40bps higher. That'd put $TLT somewhere in the low $80s, maybe $78-80 range.
But here's the thing worth watching: $SPY/$TLT correlation is running at +0.51 right now vs the normal -0.35. Stocks and bonds selling off together. That's a liquidation/inflation regime, not a normal market. In that environment $TLT doesn't act as a hedge . it's just more duration risk.
I'm staying short duration for exactly this reason. 2Y at 3.79% gives you yield without the pain if the long end keeps repricing. Why take 30Y duration risk at 4.88% when inflation is still running hot?
If the Iran situation resolves quickly and oil collapses, that changes the calculus . you'd get a flight-to-quality bid in $TLT. But I'm not positioning for that until I see it.
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Most people think $QQQ is a tech bet. It's not. It's a duration bet.
Mega-cap tech at 35x earnings with the 30Y yield at 4.92% is functionally the same trade as owning $TLT.
Both are priced on cash flows 15-20 years out. When the discount rate rises, both get crushed. That's why $QQQ and $TLT are moving in lockstep today.
Small caps outperform in this regime because their cash flows are near-term. Short duration. Less sensitive to where the 30Y goes.
If that 30Y pushes through 5%, I think $QQQ underperforms small caps by another 2-3% over the next week. This isn't rotation into value. It's the bond market repricing every long-duration asset simultaneously.
Check your $TLT chart. That's what your $QQQ position actually looks like.
Anyone else running this framework or am I overthinking it?
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@cryptoleeches One of the reasons the dollar gets stronger is higher interest rates.
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I'm only concerned in long term price action so gaps in price action daily or higher time frames.
I use tradingview and I personally do not see any gaps on $DXY which is what I'm watching and a strong support with all gaps filled on lows on $TLT.
If you can screen shot and post what you are seeing that would help.
But I'm pretty confident USD will go up right now STOCKS, GOLD, and BTC will sell off as well as a crash in the pokemon card prices and other similar markets.
Housing is also on a cliff right now + Banks have a liquidity crisis that they are trying to avoid.
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@trackdalf I’m an aggressive buyer of money market. Will join you if rates go higher.
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Remaining aggressive buyer of Treasuries and am ready to pyramid it. When geopolitics resolve, underlying deflation will reveal itself + future rate cuts. Recent knee-jerk bet on rate hike was probably one of dumbest things I have seen in awhile imo
$TLT $TMF #ZT_F #UB_F #ZN_F
Trackdalf The Green@trackdalf
What a blowup in Treasuries. Knee-jerk reaction to inflation and possible rate hike fears. Perhaps it’s just a systematic liquidity shift, but still, that’s a huge move. So much exogenous vol injection lately. Honestly self-inflicted if the goal is lower rates. You can’t do tariffs and oil supply shocks, then turn around and ask for rate cuts. I still think there’s an underlying deflationary impulse beneath all this. Right now it’s just being masked by geopolitics.
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@TweetLeni I like money market until rates go higher if they go higher.
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@realtwolf @Chris_Repke @LukeGromen Should have bought the cash 20-30 year treasury bond instead. No mark ups in the portfolio, no management fees, accrued interest from day one, and smaller bid ask spreads.
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@Chris_Repke @LukeGromen Ah, you assume you know something the market doesn't.
Prices matter. Reflexivity matters.
Rates and oil are heading far lower. I have $6M in $TLT to back that up. Check in with me over whatever longer time frame you want.
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Why is Lindsey Graham (arguably the warmonger-in-chief of the Iran war) now advocating for “winding down” the Iran war, given that by all accounts, it is an elaborate 4-D chess play by Trump that is going according to plan or even better?
🤔
The Hill@thehill
Graham to Trump: ‘Wind down’ Iran war, ‘wind up’ efforts for peace deal thehill.com/homenews/senat…
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@travfourr I’m in money market right now but I’m keeping an eye open on the 10 year right now.
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I don't see any gaps lower seems like they are all pretty filled to me.
This will be the play of the century. Everyone is wrong we will dump HARD and then when people think its the bear market the dollar will top out BTC will bottom GOLD will bottom and stocks will rally along side rate cuts and cheap debt.
Then the real crash starts. We still have no answer to national debt and our social programs that are running out of funding. Such as social security. Also housing market is in a complete bind and yields rising only makes it more unaffordable.
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@cryptoleeches The cash 10 year has a gap at 4.5% and $TLT has a small gap above 82.5 on adjusted basis. Using Stockcharts.com for my data.
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@tickerade Strong performance? It hasn’t been able to keep ahead of money markets.
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Microsoft $MSFT is the markets April fools jokes. It’s a $500 stock showing at $370
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Decided to sell everything here.
Oil is going to $200
We will see a massive crash.
I am also putting the house I bought 6 months ago up for sale so I can dodge the massive housing crash that will follow.
We are heading to a depression
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