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Chadwick Tyler
2.9K posts
@Sherlockwhale @foxianorg Just letting you know tryin to send email
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@Sherlockwhale @Sherlockwhale any update on LDO holding in spot no rush on my part to sell. Also, please check email I have multiple people that want to move to Foxian but no word back. Thanks!
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Just saw a trading guru on YouTube drop the classic “You can be profitable with just a 50% win rate if your RR is high” cheat code. Now, it sounds nice in theory until you actually run the math, so I decided to debunk this.
With a 50% winrate system, the probability of having at least one 10 loss streak is around 62% over 1000 trades and around 99% over 5000 trades (calculated using runs in Bernoulli trials, probability theory for consecutive failures). At 5% risk per trade, one such streak equals roughly a −40% drawdown which would then require a +67% gain on the reduced balance just to go breakeven.
So, in other words, long losing streaks are not an unlikely event, infact they’re mathematically inevitable. And once you recover from one, statistics say another will follow very soon.
And even if somehow you work out the math in your favour, what about the psychology part? How many of you are honestly going to continue trading the same system after 10 losses in a row even if you know statistically it’s fine to have that? You are most likely going to cut sizes at the worst time, skip the next big winners, revenge trade or change your system entirely before you reach the positive expectancy part.
So, expectancy looks good on paper but remember that trading is not lived on a spreadsheet, it has so many real life variables that you cannot control and having a higher winrate certainly helps alot. For an 80% winrate system, probability of 10 losses in a row is around 0.00001% for every 10 trades and over 1000 trades, chance of at least one 10 loss streak is practically 0%. Even over 5,000 trades, the probability remains extremely small.
And this is exactly why you don’t just need a system with a high RR, you also need a strategy with a higher winrate to make it both profitable and psychologically sustainable in a longer run.
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@MrsErikaKirk My sincere prayer is that the King of Kings is with you. That Charlie's mission will live in all of us. To insure the Lord will be honored in his death and that so many will be reached because of his ultimate sacrifice. I pray that God will give you endless strength.
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Psalm 46:1 - God is our refuge and strength, a very present help in trouble.
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Chadwick Tyler retweetledi
@Sherlockwhale Could I buy 30 minutes with you? I have a few questions. Hope you are having a good weekend. Please DM Thanks!
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$BTC UPDATE
$USDT.D finally breaking above the trendline, although it’s still at a small 4H resistance + 4H YVWAP but very likely a breakout is going to happen sending price on the bitcoin chart atleast to $111.8K next.
We missed the short trigger this morning but I will be dropping an altcoin short instead to capitalise on the move atleast.
Sherlock | DeFi Researcher@Sherlockwhale
$BTC UPDATE $USDT.D and $STABLE.C.D bounced off at support yesterday and that too was the first retest (99% of times it’s successful), but even with two solid confirmations, why did we not take a short on Bitcoin? Because $116K zone is still a support and it would not have made any sense to take short at the support. There are instances where you’d see similar kind of conflicting signals from correlated charts but this is the most beautiful part too about these confluences. Whenever you are working on your own trading strategy, you always need to formulate one with similar confluences that don’t always flash green or red at the same time. Now since $USDT.D is at resistance (precise retest as price did not exactly tap resistance yesterday) and has retested 0.65 Fib level too (like I always say, 0.618 retest is weak and next big one is always at 0.65 or 0.705), there is a possible long position that we can take at $115,300 but you may not be able to catch any big move since $BTC is constantly making these LL, LHs and is trading under $116.5K anyway. Also with a big daily descending trendline on $USDT.D, seems like $112K is only a matter of time and best that we prepare for that asap. So, even though $USDT.D is at 4H resistance but I am slowly inclining towards building a swing short position but remember that it will still be a very risky position since $USDT.D still remains in a strong daily downtrend and has just been rejected at 0.65 level, again lots of mixed signals right? But there are so smaller timeframe patterns that suggest an upcoming reversal on $USDT.D, so best be prepared for it.
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@pointless0x A platform that is very clear on managing volume to not over saturate the market. Very tight curation of artist you grow with. Not who just dropped the ten minute project of the day. Build a well rounded secondary market. Only sell 1/1’s, editions suck.
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question of the day ⚫
platforms or independence?
curated stage or self-built soapbox?
what’s the future for digital artists?
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Chadwick Tyler retweetledi
pointless collection share ⚫️
god’s people by @chadwicktyler
the bible belt. the dirty south. names change, the people don’t.
chadwick gives us what most don’t even see.
portraits that feel like confessions.
god is a big word. but this is a big collection ⚫️
0097 (2021)
0065 (2016)
0042 (2014)
0032 (2017)
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Chadwick Tyler retweetledi
pointless artist introduction ⚫ chadwick tyler @chadwicktyler
fashion shoots that feel like fever dreams.
small-town ghosts. studio saints. dark realism.
palm river 0004
collected by: @sashaku9292
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@coinbase your tech support is awful! My father has tried to set an account for 3 weeks logging in over 9 hours of time on tech support. You guys need to do a lot better!
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@justinaversano Congratulations @justinaversano you should feel proud as a true pioneer.
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Good Morning, and a Happy 4 year anniversary to Twin Flames 🔥🔥.
Four years ago I entered NFTs and my life has changed ever since. I am grateful for all the support and lessons I’ve learned throughout the years. To find a place for all my art projects, and where I belong in the art world in art history and expanding my consciousness and craft into the future!
Meeting many friendly faces around the world who share the common goal of loving and enriching their lives with art and artists; embracing the future in this new movement of digital art and blockchain art across all mediums, old and new.
Thank you to everyone I’ve connected with, collected with, and collaborated with. I look forward to what the future brings for all of us. I look forward to learning more from each and every one of you. Collaborating with more artists and peers to envision a bright and abundant future for the energy and artwork we bring to life from our hearts into the real and imagined world. To feel more and to see beyond where our minds can ponder.
Here’s to another four years, of a life filled with growth, creativity, happiness, and most importantly, LOVE ❤️
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Posting one of my biggest swing trades of the year this week with 100x potential 🚨
Just like $BABA from September that went 15,000%+ in a few days 💰
Like & comment “Trade” and I’ll DM you the name ❤️
Chris@itsCblast
🇨🇳 $BABA 100c 09/27 at 0.05 THIS CAN GO 1000%+
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