ChardPT

@SternDrewCrypto Nothing happened so far

🚨 Japan is About to Nuke the Global Economy Tomorrow Bank of Japan is about to DUMP over ¥1,000,000,000,000 in U.S. bonds TOMORROW at 7:50 PM ET, right before their market opens. Last time they sold just ¥280 BILLION… and markets CRASHED 15% in 3 HOURS. This is 4× bigger. This is the match that lights the fuse on the July correction everyone has been dreading. This isn’t “bad news for the markets.” This is the beginning of the Great Reverse Carry Trade(RCT). If you’re not positioned for the crash right now, you’re about to find out how fast everything can disappear. Turn on notifications. This one is going to be ugly.

@Morris_Mty Goobye to his ACL

Un Mexicano nunca se raja, aunque el contrincante sea del doble de tamaño, por eso, jamás te metas con un Mexicano.

@michaelsisakov Decay and rebalancing are ridiculous though. $SOXL broke down June level already but $SOXS is not even close to breaking out June level. They’re suppose to be the same in terms of decay, leverage and rebalancing. It just doesn’t make sense.

$SOXS Update Creeping higher.

@DrDavidKass 👍

I am quoted in Business Insider on Warren Buffett: David Kass, a finance professor at the University of Maryland who blogs about Berkshire, told Business Insider that Buffett does seem "concerned" by "troubling" trends in markets such as growing use of derivatives and shrinking time horizons. But Kass noted that Buffett's "extreme caution" — Berkshire had a record $380 billion cash pile at the end of March — has stopped him from capitalizing on a "sharply rising equity market over the past few years." Buffett seemed "troubled" by those huge outlays, Kass said, likely because they're eroding cash flows that previously funded stock buybacks, compelling the companies to raise external capital, and raising the prospect they'll spend a ton of money with little to show for it. businessinsider.com/warren-buffett…

@Mappy6984 She just got lucky.

85 and looks 50. Whatever the doctors tell you to eat, do the opposite

@Analyst_G I started shorting semis when 10y-3m steepened to 1 in May so I was down so much so hopefully this time it’s different.

And that's how previous secular disinflationary cycle peaked ... Key Historical Details (1928-1929 Inversion) Duration: The inversion lasted continuously for almost two full years prior to the historic market crash. (now even more) Depth: Yields inverted by an average of 91 basis points, peaking at an extreme 145 basis points during the summer of 1929.

$SNDK literally needs to crash -11% today to breakeven. This is disgusting! It’s literally a robbery!

$SNDQ I bought June 9-11 average cost $500 but how come I’m still down 22%?? I know decay and daily rebalancing affects it but still down that much? Stock price is way down June level. This is ridiculous man!

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@eMTBrides That sound of “help, help me” is so good to hear. FAFO! I just don’t understand why people get so mad about recording in public.

"You got it all on video?" LEO's investigate 👮‍♂️ TOTAL PSYCHO GETS THE SAUCE! 🤬🔫 (Part 3) Much love to the Freedom Team! 🇺🇸📷 The lady cop tried to cover his legs 😂 via Welcome to this World Media #freedom #sheltonwa #1stAmendment #karen #cops #pepperspray

*KING STREET RESTRICTS CLIENT WITHDRAWALS FROM ITS HEDGE FUND Korean Street?

@RickD_GK This woman is so miserable. I understand it’s her porta potty and violated her personal property but if it’s just a one time thing then just shrug it off.

The Homeowner confronted a man who stopped by the house, which is an active jobsite, and use the porta John. Being a 20 year construction guy, we see this all the time. Does it matter if someone stops and uses it? She is paying for it, I'm curious what you all think. I personally wouldn't care...

@OilHeadlineNews Here we go again…

Trump on Iran: believes a deal is achievable

@MacroAlphaHQ Sandisk is an alpha? You’re telling me it’s a safe haven asset during severe crash that you’re talking about? Even if they’re making memory chips designed by aliens their customers are in the gutter if your severe crash happens.

@chardpt01 confusing macro beta with idiosyncratic alpha is why you're exit liquidity

🚨 You were warned about shaking out of structural winners during a standard pullback. Those who still dont get it are making a huge mistake here. Retail is dumping $SNDK because it bled 19% from the 52-week highs. They look at a red chart and panic sell. Meanwhile the largest hyperscalers on the planet just backed up the truck and locked down the entire future supply chain with hard cash. I have been watching this space for 10 years and I have seen this exact setup destroy shorts. The memory industry has historically been a brutal cycle of boom and bust. Hardware companies make insane margins for a year. Then they overbuild capacity and spot prices crash to the floor. Analysts are pricing Sandisk right now like that old cyclical death spiral is still playing out. They are completely wrong. The entire business model just mutated to fit the new reality. Management realized the AI data center buildout requires so much high-performance NAND flash that buyers are operating in pure desperation. So they stopped playing the spot market casino. In the third quarter alone Sandisk forced their biggest customers to sign massive multiyear supply agreements. We are talking about 42 billion dollars in minimum revenue commitments. Forty two billion dollars locked up and backed by ironclad financial guarantees. Some of these contracts run for five long years. To put that into perspective, that is hyperscalers looking at the global AI arms race and realizing they will literally die if they cannot secure data storage. They are hoarding capacity just to survive the decade. Retail trades a red chart. Hyperscalers trade for corporate survival. Look at the sharp red pullback on the right side of the chart. That 19% dip is a gift wrapped in market inefficiency. While retail focuses on that local high, look at the absolute violence in the underlying third quarter numbers. Revenue jumped 251% year over year to 5.95 billion dollars. The data center segment alone skyrocketed 645%. That kind of growth breaks standard valuation models. The average selling price per gigabyte went up 248%. Imagine selling the exact same physical piece of silicon for triple the price simply because the buyer has no alternative supplier. That pricing leverage pushed adjusted gross margins from 51.1% in the previous quarter to a staggering 78.4%. Those are software monopoly margins wrapped inside a hardware company. Even beyond the data center, revenue from their edge business climbed 295% as stronger pricing easily offset modest shipment declines. It is happening across the entire board. Wall street always lags the transition from cyclical spot pricing to guaranteed recurring revenue. By the time they update their outdated models the stock is already completely gone. Tighter industry supply is colliding perfectly with accelerating AI infrastructure spending. Every single metric is flashing green while the stock price takes a breather. This will be your biggest regret if you stay on the sidelines. Turn on notifications and follow me if you want to front-run the street before they wake up. You will regret missing this post when the next leg up starts. The new supply agreements guarantee predictable revenue through 2026 and beyond. Fade this structural shift and stay poor. R.I.P. to the bears who short a hardware stock with software margins.

@DrJStrategy 2nd derivative is important, but Semi’s share price peak is ~200 days before analyst EPS begin to drop (standard deviation 76 days). “EPS good, stock down” à la @Samsung shows the market views results as unsustainable. #AI #BoomBust