chatSBC

2.1K posts

chatSBC

chatSBC

@chat_SBC

“If I knew the way, I would take you home”

New York, USA Katılım Ocak 2020
1K Takip Edilen2.7K Takipçiler
chatSBC
chatSBC@chat_SBC·
this post getting lots of hate, but he is not wrong implicit in high multiples for non-hypergrowth "compounder" businesses is durability of ROIC/CAP - based on five forces, non-cyclicality, asset-liteness - and smart inst investors realized that high PGR and low WACC mathematically meant these businesses were under-priced at almost any multiple as long as moat intact that assumption will be likely be correct in the LT (for many of these) but there is a pullback in capital that thinks this way (some of it from flows, others from AI creating terminal worries) so the stocks trade same bc predicated on same meta
Mojo@MrMojoRisinX

Final answer: It's the same stock. MSFT/AMZN/V/MA/FICO/SPGI/JPM/BAC/HUM/UNH/TMO/DHR/DPZ/CMG all share nearly identical factor profiles of growth, momentum, quality, capital allocation discipline, institutional shareholder bases, et al.

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chatSBC
chatSBC@chat_SBC·
@wealthmatica 10x earnings - gets to a 20% IRR which compensates for the high risk
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Wealthmatica
Wealthmatica@wealthmatica·
OK honestly though... When does $FICO become an obvious buy? For me, that's around $935/share. - Forward P/E: 20.7x $FICO
Wealthmatica tweet media
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chatSBC
chatSBC@chat_SBC·
@S_curvecap "The moat of Chipotle is making the burrito. Here is why grocery stores destroy that moat"
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S-Curve Capital
S-Curve Capital@S_curvecap·
@chat_SBC Feel like you shld be able to Community Note this kind of shit
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chatSBC
chatSBC@chat_SBC·
The moat in software is NOT the cost of building software. That’s key to why it was a good business to start with
Todd Saunders@toddsaunders

I heard an incredible analogy from a VC friend that I can’t stop thinking about. “The moat in software was the cost of building software. And Claude Code just mass produced a bridge.” It’s wild when you think about the impact of this. The SaaS boom produced a few dozen billionaires and a bunch of zero sum winners. But the AI SaaS era will mass produce millionaires. There will be fewer ServiceTitans hitting $5B valuations, and instead there will be 50,000 companies doing $500K-$5M each, run by 1-3 people with deep expertise and huge margins. To be clear, I believe that the total value of software goes up, and the number of companies created goes up exponentially. But the number of people who capture the value also goes up 100x. I don’t believe in the “SaaS is dying” headline, I think it’s missing the point. It’s simply that the power of SaaS is changing hands.

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B@itswithinme_·
Crazy fee stacking going on in Anthropic secondaries I’ve heard through the pipe At $380b valuation L2 SPV - 15/0 Broker - 7% Upstream L1 SPV - 5% So for $1m investment, you’re only getting $750,975 net capital into underlying exposure $249,025 / $1m = 24.9% fees So you to recover original exposure you need 33.2% gross appreciation to break even Wild
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chatSBC
chatSBC@chat_SBC·
@P_Remarks half of these are AI losers and the rest have tough comps
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Ottavi
Ottavi@ottavicap·
I don't have a great answer to what will get them to work beyond consumer spending hanging in there. Digital payments penetration story more played out in the US so I think macro more important to their volume growth. MA more intl exposure than V. VAS doing well but a different story than offline-to-online. I don't think stablecoins create a material disprovable narrative anytime soon - existing agentic commerce protocols keep existing payments ecosystem in place and I don't see that changing anytime soon. And true consumer payments stablecoin adoption remains pretty low. And consumer adoption will be challenging. If anything, I could see agentic becoming a narrative tailwind especially since V/MA are making smart moves to put themselves at the center of identifying/verifying agents for payments.
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chatSBC
chatSBC@chat_SBC·
what gets V/MA stock to work? is there a wall of worry (stablecoins etc) they can climb, or another "cant disprove" short?
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chatSBC
chatSBC@chat_SBC·
@buccocapital 70% gaap margins and teens growth means you are a zero until proven otherwise
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BuccoCapital Bloke
BuccoCapital Bloke@buccocapital·
@chat_SBC Unless sentiment changes there is literally nothing - and I mean literally nothing - the AI losers can do except accelerate
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chatSBC
chatSBC@chat_SBC·
@bucketshopcap No one vibe coding SAP and it’s down 40% None of this matters
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks)
Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks)@MikeFritzell·
The bull case for Japanese software: - Revenues in yen so not hurt by JPY appreciation - SaaS penetration rate is 5-7 years behind the US - Growth is hard to find in Japan, but in SaaS - yes - Incremental margins in software are high - Run by young, aggressive CEOs - Have sold off indiscriminately on gen AI fears - EV/Sales multiples now often well below 3x
Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks) tweet media
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chatSBC
chatSBC@chat_SBC·
$TSLA prob the best mag7 this year tbh given robotics theme and stock strength. Maybe $AAPL wild card - GOOG pretty extended relative to history, even year - NVDA maybe but feels like MSFT/AMZN last year - AMZN/MSFT/META below 200d
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chatSBC
chatSBC@chat_SBC·
hate to say but NVDA feels like MSFT/AMZN last year (well owned/positioned, very cheap if #s sustainable) and multi just compresses for 12-18 months until frustrated longs sell
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chatSBC
chatSBC@chat_SBC·
would you rather buy:
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chatSBC
chatSBC@chat_SBC·
this basket seems well positioned
chatSBC tweet media
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chatSBC
chatSBC@chat_SBC·
@marc_slans Old enough to remember when MA traded at 40x bc best biz ever and WMT at 12x bc AMZN can’t disprove
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Keşfet

@wealthmatica @S_curvecap @itswithinme_ @ChairliftCap @P_Remarks @ottavicap @buccocapital @bucketshopcap