Chillus_Crypto
4.1K posts

Chillus_Crypto
@chilluscrypto
Working on systems to try and stay out of my own way
Katılım Ağustos 2021
263 Takip Edilen303 Takipçiler

Sometimes I hope one person out there will read one of my tweets and it becomes a pivot for their day, pushes them to take action or make their day just a little better.
One can only hope.
Quotable Crypto@QuotableCrypto
Most CT "wisdom" is just recycled noise... @Stoiiic is different... S-tier trading psychology + life wisdom cheat-codes daily... Follow or stay mid. Your call... 🙏🏻💪🏻QC
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@c2mtrading Surreal. Imagine Lincoln watching from the other side jus shaking his head
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If you're a follower of mine and wish to extract any value from my page, this last video i did is a must watch.
Basically my 9 years of experience in 1 vid, everything from TA, to execution, risk, journalling, process - all of it, start to finish, no secrets left on the table.
If i every decide to leave this space and trade in the dark, at least i've left you with this - for those that watch it in it's entirety and go off to utilise it - you're welcome.
Be aware, it's 2 hours long, save it for a time where you can really get into it, and absorb as much of it as you can.
I hope it benefits your life as it has mine.
youtu.be/sL-T6yz4DuI

YouTube
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@exitpumpBTC @KillaXBT Thank you. I think too many ppl think funding just reflects perp positioning.
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$BTC
Honestly, you just have to laugh at this point. You’d think people would learn by now, but apparently not.
This entire move up has been largely short driven, with funding sitting around -0.02 during the rally. That tells you a lot. 🤣
As shorts close and price pushes higher, the move can continue squeezing. But if the capitulation runs out and there’s no sustained spot demand underneath it, price likely rolls over on the LTFs.

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@IClaimThings @exitpumpBTC @KillaXBT Looking at funding and thinking it directly reflects perp positioning is oversimplifying things and will give you the wrong read at times like this.
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@IClaimThings @exitpumpBTC @KillaXBT No mate you're missing something fundamental about funding rates. When spot buying far outweighs perp buying, the funding rate goes down to encourage more longs.
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@skyiszen Don’t we need a pocket of longs to become forced sellers/liquidate for a capitulation wick? There’s appear to be no more longs to liquidate
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I thought i wouldn't see some of the crazy down only BTC moves we saw in 2018, 2022 for a long time. I called for 65k months ago, but this has surprised me, i'm ngl.
Theres a liquidity issue, ppl who wanted to buy BTC aggressively over the past couple of years have already bought via ETFs, new liquidity there to buy is far more patient than whats required to put in an obvious bottom imo.
Getting close to at least a local bottom, the question is do we put in a traditional capitulation blow off bottom or not, this is still controlled.
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It was a day just like today a few years ago that i have decided to take trading seriously.
Back then it felt like the worst day of my life, lost tons of money, vaporized.
Now if i look back at that day, i would probably rate it among the 5 most important days of my life. Everything changed for the better from that moment!
I know many of you are suffering, only wise thing you can do is make this suffer count and allow you to take a U turn!
Love you all!
GIF
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@astronomer_zero You’re the best account on here still Astro. We learn so much more about the reality of trading because of your transparency. Most accounts give a false sense of reality and only want to make it look like they are always right. Thank you 🙏
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On flipping bearish at 81k, and doing so transparently.
I abandoned my bullish bias and flipped mainly short at 81k.
And you all knew when it happened.
Clarity is one of my core values. You always know my stance.
I know it can be frustrating how I hold once stance, have been right a lot this cycle, but then suddenly see a call fail, and then how I suddenly flip.
That happened at 81k.
I firstly remind you how that is not to expect a low number on $BTC, but worth it to buy back lower (our purple box as it stands), so don't panic.
But secondly, transparency and holding one opinion inside a range matters more than being vague and only quoting in hindsight after momentum kicks in (such as seem with metals at the top as if calling one vague call years ago means anything - eventually it goes up of course), and the same on the $BTC "bear market", maybe called at 90k as if a 20%-30% drop lower from there is unusual.
What most people don’t see is how often in this platform narratives get rewritten in markets. Many “bears” had bullish scenarios too, but once price moves, only the correct side gets remembered.
Time matters in analysis.
Only price matters in trading.
I flipped at 81k. Not perfect timing, but clear and tradable.
Enough trades between 81–98k kept us green for the year, and the stance was communicated in real time.
I don’t do hindsight trading or vague positioning. No opinion hedging.
Clear bias, clear invalidation, focus on what to do next.
Education is showing process and execution, not claiming genius after the move.
This formula won’t change. You’ll always see how I actually trade and think, not a polished timeline.
I’m not here to be an influencer, but a trader&investor.
Just wanted to show how things really work behind the scenes.
Stay critical.
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@Orderandflow Was a great explanation of the thought process. Gate keeping system has done its job and risk is defined. No trade is ever guaranteed to work out so that’s the game we play. Well done ser.
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@chilluscrypto Yea, like i said if i get stopped, happy to hang my hat on it - no harm no foul. Gotta take our stabs when the system calls for it.
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BTC Analysis
- Weekly AO divergence
- Sweeping key HTF low
- Daily overextended on the RSI
- Severe 4h double divergence
- Textbook 4h triple drive with notable wicks
I think it's safe to say that the setup is well confluenced enough, that if you were waiting for your long, this is your shot.
The last BTC trade i took was a short at 125k in October. Despite it being counter the daily trend (something i never really like to do) - my hand felt forced.
Yet again, in the same spot, my hand feels forced.
As many of you know i undergo a rigoruous pre-trade process, am fastidiouos with my journaling and place heavy emphasis on the way i think about my positions. What some of you may not know is that when in these spots i visualise myself having to fill out my 'post trade analysis' section of my journal and see what i would write there, if i lost the trade.
In this case, as it was at the highs, there's nothing to write, i've waited 120 days to take a position on this market, my system warrants an entry and if i take the L, it's no harm no foul because i know i won't have the bitter aftertaste of regret to deal with.
I took 6R on the last position, makes sense to risk one of those here.
$BTC



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@robertkottelin @corgil First reaction was lol. But it’s really doesn’t seem implausible when purely looking at percentages. I think the playing field has changed a lot though. Buyers from this cycle aren’t going to sell as quickly as past cycles. They are now larger entities, not just BTC OGs
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Kole dropped this and vanished from CT
Insane call tbh, imagine the scenes
Zoran Kole@captain_kole
Going to go hibernate in Discord until 2026. GLHF.
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@corgil Drawing squiggles that far ahead in time, you’re not lucky if you get it right. Too many factors change over that period
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The issue with this line of thinking is that RSI is a bound indicator, (unlike say OBV), so once it hits its extremities, it can remain pinned there for months as the trend continues, because it can't go lower than 0 or higher than 100.
Compare that to the below charts, that shows OBV hasn't started to break down yet, and draw your own conclusions.


Alistair Milne@alistairmilne
Only three times has the weekly RSI for Bitcoin been lower: - Jan 2015 (post Mt Gox bear market) - Nov&Dec 2018 (bitcoin fell from ~6000 to ~3000) - June 2022 (FTX / Luna) ... and we don't even know why we're here
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✍️ Since it’s the weekend, I want to take the time to talk about something that really matters in trading: losses.
🔻 Knowing how to handle a rough month, staying transparent, and bouncing back is essential for any trader who takes this seriously. I’m down 3R, and January was my worst month, the first red one since last August. That makes it the perfect moment to share the mistakes I made, how I’m looking at them, and what you can learn from it too.
👉 First, bias. Having a bias can sometimes protect you, but it can also wreck you. Conviction can quietly turn into stubbornness, and the market has very little patience for that. My bias came from my macro perspective and my background in traditional finance. Let’s be real: despite everything that’s happened lately, traditional markets are still broadly bullish and have delivered strong performance over the last few months.
👉 Second, complacency. A streak of decent months can put you into a comfort zone without you even noticing. You start thinking, “I’ll be fine, I always end up winning.” Until one day it stops being true. The key is being able to adjust quickly and pull yourself out of that mindset before it drags you down. You need to know when to change course, and do it fast.
👉 Finally, adaptation. This is another mistake I made, and honestly it’s not the first time. I didn’t adapt fast enough. After years in the markets, you convince yourself that what you’re going through is just a phase. Then one month becomes two, then three, then six. I held positions for too long, and that approach doesn’t fit the current crypto market. I’m saying crypto on purpose. The “boomers” are still doing just fine in their own market.
🫳 Holding a position in profit and then giving it back to the market? That’s basically my January in a nutshell. I started 2026 with a win rate above 80% and close to 10R, and I still ended up letting the market reach back into my pockets.
Final thoughts: We take notes, we learn, we adapt, and we keep moving. Excuses are for the weak. Our mistakes are on us, no one else.
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Gained 3k new followers today, record highs.
Strange because I just admitted I was wrong after holding a bias for 11 weeks of this range holding and eventually braking up, we only hit first target of 95k, not the second 112k target, most anticipated one.
Welcome in, I suppose..
Maybe you want to know what's next on $BTC.
Not going to comment on that.
Current weekend and events involved made it quite unclear in all honesty. I will draw out my ideas once it does become more clear, but not now as I just want to let the weekend trend (they are highly unidirectional typically and do not tend to revert easily per weekend low paradigm).
So just key to be out of longs... And for now, I just want to remind you that I don't think this will be a deep bear market, no 2022 like bear market of 75%+ downside.
But I do think it's worth not being overly bullish for a while. Don't think price will just stop especially now that my bullish bias is invalidated.
So no focus on high timeframe shorts unlike we did in 2022, no. But no focus on high timeframe longs either anymore. And more focus on catching the high timeframe bottom or close to instead.
Not doing it aggressively. So I just kindly request your patience from my side.
And once again my apologies for being wrong on this 80-85k expected "bottom".

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@martypartymusic Where are you getting those figures? Books on Coinbase Binance Bitfinex an Kraken don’t add up to even a quarter of those numbers…
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@ChartingGuy Red lines are blood moons? Green lines are…?
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