Xris Xeating

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Xris Xeating

Xris Xeating

@chriskeating

Fundraixer, Wikimedian, also tweets about politics and playing the violin.

Katılım Nisan 2008
1K Takip Edilen1.4K Takipçiler
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Xris Xeating
Xris Xeating@chriskeating·
Thought for the day: Don't forget to savour the things you enjoy...
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max tempers
max tempers@maxtempers·
Even within pensions, the equity share is greatly diminished from a couple of decades ago.
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max tempers
max tempers@maxtempers·
The Economist on the Martin Lewis Nation: "A measly 13% of the financial assets of British households are shares, the lowest in almost any large developed economy. In Ramseyan America the figure is 44%. No amount of scrimping and saving will compensate Britons for missing out on the profound benefits of long-term compound returns."
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Xris Xeating
Xris Xeating@chriskeating·
@polisisti I think you are, just with more knowledge of Latin placenames
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Alessandro
Alessandro@polisisti·
@chriskeating Silesia is taken in English from the Latin name as well — though I'm not sure if I'm responding to the thought underlying your tweet?
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Stefan Schubert
Stefan Schubert@StefanFSchubert·
The English translations of some German place names give a profoundly different vibe: Schlesien (sounds harsh) - Silesia (sounds Elven) Pfalz - Palatinate Köln - Cologne
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Xris Xeating
Xris Xeating@chriskeating·
@Birdyword we can invite them to a a tour of a olde englishe style theme park village (regular price £54.99)
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Mike Bird
Mike Bird@Birdyword·
I would like to say a special thanks to the American pals and mutuals who have enthusiastically backed England since the US got knocked out. Our country's reduced status means we can't offer you anything in exchange, but I have added you to a list marked "forever friends 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿♥️"
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Xris Xeating
Xris Xeating@chriskeating·
ou se trouve les bleus?
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Xris Xeating
Xris Xeating@chriskeating·
@Nrgill1 @ninthhostage You went to see the bank manager who'd then decide if you could get a loan. Based how many years you'd had a current account in that branch, how much was in your savings account at that branch, and a manual review of your transactions
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Ope, gonna post
Ope, gonna post@Nrgill1·
@ninthhostage What was it like? Legitimately interested if someone has studied or lived experience.
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Brendan
Brendan@ninthhostage·
"credit scores were only invented in the 70s - we can get rid of them and we should" Many people have extremely bad intuition of understanding of what financial life was like pre-credit score - I do not think you want to go back to that
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Xris Xeating
Xris Xeating@chriskeating·
@phl43 At present the infrastructure is owned by labs whose product is their models. If the models become commoditised then the labs are stuck with infrastructure that they'd then have to sell or rent, probably much more cheaply than they'd like
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Philippe Lemoine
Most of the enormous capital expenditures we're seeing in the AI sector at the moment don't go to model development, but is used to create the infrastructure that, based on projected demand as the capabilities of models improve and businesses learn to use AI, will be needed to serve future models. Either capabilities will increase and businesses will learn to use AI at the projected rate so demand will be sufficient to generate enough returns on those capital expenditures or they won't and there will be excess capacity. In the former case, investors will presumably continue to expect to earn a good enough return if they continue to fund expansion, so there is no need for the state to help finance the continued expansion. Note that it doesn't really matter whether the models are open weights or not here, the investment to create the compute to serve them will have to be made regardless. In the latter case, on the other hand, it means that model capabilities or the demand from businesses have not grown fast enough to use existing capacity, in which case the state shouldn't finance further expansion and make the overcapacity problem even worse. In that case, the investment to create that much compute shouldn't have been made in the first place. So I think this argument is confused, because it assumes that two things that are mutually inconsistent will happen at the same time: AI will be so successful that we'll need more compute to support the expansion of AI use, but there won't be enough demand for the investments needed to create that capacity to generate sufficient returns, hence the state will have to intervene. I'm not saying that state intervention is never justified, market imperfections exist and sometimes they justify state intervention, but as far as I can tell in this case people are making the case for state intervention without having shown there was any market imperfection, let alone made the case that state intervention would actually help and not make things worse.
Andrew Curran@AndrewCurran_

Dean Ball took a lot of heat this week for calling open source decelerationist. Many people read this as him being personally anti-open source. I don't think that's true. This was my interpretation of what he was saying: if open source is sufficiently capable and ubiquitous, it will eventually destroy the big labs business models. This means they would no longer have funding. To quote Ilya Sutskever from his testimony in the OpenAI vs. Elon Musk trial: 'If there is no funding, there is no big computer.' And without big computer, there can't be big model. In my opinion, what would happen next in this scenario is that the United States Government would step in, nationalize the leading labs, consolidate them into a single federal entity, and then fund it directly through the Department of War under national security. To put into perspective how easily they could do this, the proposed 2027 defense budget is $1.5 trillion. Most people who strongly support open source would probably not see that outcome as ideal, or this future as a pleasant one. This doesn't mean we should abandon open source or stop wishing for its success. It simply means we should take the middle path. There is fire on both sides of us now, and that will likely remain true for the foreseeable future.

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Xris Xeating
Xris Xeating@chriskeating·
@_AashishReddy Ok cool while Kimi is giving me detailed instructions on how to safely handle "interesting" organic chemistry in home labs
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Xris Xeating
Xris Xeating@chriskeating·
anyone know why Fable insists this question is too dangerous for it to answer? "what kind of star would be optimal for the development of a thick forest biome on the surface of a planet in its habitable zone?"
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Xris Xeating
Xris Xeating@chriskeating·
@lugaricano @RuxandraTeslo another example - the British railways in the 19th century. Vast capital formation, vast wealth generation, most routes had little to no return to shareholders
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Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦
The one who put it most memorably was Warren Buffet. He said the following in many ways "If a capitalist had been present at Kitty Hawk back in the early 1900s, he should have shot Orville Wright. He would have saved his progeny money. But seriously, the airline business has been extraordinary. It has eaten up capital over the past century like almost no other business because people seem to keep coming back to it and putting fresh money in. You’ve got huge fixed costs, you’ve got strong labor unions and you’ve got commodity pricing. That is not a great recipe for success. I have an 800 (free call) number now that I call if I get the urge to buy an airline stock. I call at two in the morning and I say: ‘My name is Warren and I’m an aeroholic.’ And then they talk me down.” forbes.com/sites/tedreed/…
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Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦
Value creation and value capture are different things. Airlines transformed the world and never made money; the surplus went to passengers. Days after launching its best model, Anthropic includes it in existing plans. That is what competition does: the surplus goes to users, not to the labs. Profits will not justify these valuations.
Claude@claudeai

Beginning July 20, Claude Fable 5 will be included in all Max and Team Premium plans, at 50% of limits. Pro and Team Standard users will continue to have access to Fable via usage credits, and will receive a one-time $100 credit. Demand for Fable has been challenging to predict, which is why we rolled it out to subscription plans in stages, extending access several times as we secured additional capacity.

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Xris Xeating
Xris Xeating@chriskeating·
@richardmarcj Oh, absolutely, but it's still another few thousand you won't get back, and not feasible for many. We won't see 34 freeposts to every Clacton household
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Richard Johnson
Richard Johnson@richardmarcj·
@chriskeating *Much* cheaper than trying to pay for posting a piece of self-promotion to every household yourself
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Richard Johnson
Richard Johnson@richardmarcj·
We need to put up the deposit for standing for election, as well as the minimum threshold for it being returned. It hasn't increased with inflation in over 40 years. Had it kept up with inflation, it would be worth £2,000 from 1985. This is getting absurd (the Clacton by-election itself is absurd, but this is a more general point). We are increasingly attracting narcissists, fantasists, and assorted self-promoters to stand for Parliament (beyond usual fare for politicians!). Taxpayers, of course, pay for these self-promoters' self-indulgence through the free post to every constituent, which is worth well over the £500 deposit. tendringdc.gov.uk/news/clacton-v…
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Xris Xeating
Xris Xeating@chriskeating·
@OttokarHochman You'd hand it to your typist. Depending on audience and formality required, she would use carbon paper to help create copies. Hence the CC field: carbon copy of original document provided for info/courtesy
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Aminadad Mercilesse Butcher
Aminadad Mercilesse Butcher@OttokarHochman·
This is potentially a very stupid question, but: in the pre-photocopier world, what did people do if they needed to distribute a *small* # (~a dozen) of docs, e.g. an office memo? I can’t imagine you would go to a printer for *this*; would ppl just write out the copies by hand?
Aminadad Mercilesse Butcher@OttokarHochman

Shower thought: It's become kind of a midwit take to attribute this to the invention of the word processor, which doesn't really make sense given that this process was clearly ongoing long before computerized word processing was invented... but not before *photocopying* was

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Xris Xeating
Xris Xeating@chriskeating·
@WeirdMedieval I know a couple of City of London councillors, they post on social media a lot about how they have been to very important dinners with very important people wearing dumb outfits
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weird medieval guys
weird medieval guys@WeirdMedieval·
i wanted to write a cutesy article about what london’s still-active medieval guilds get up to today but it turns out it’s mostly corruption and nepotism
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Cllr Alisha Lewis
Cllr Alisha Lewis@Alishacmlewis·
I love how a solid half of Andy’s pledges to the Labour Party as leader boil down to ‘I swear to God, if you lot in the back don’t start behaving I will turn this car around and none of you are getting McDonalds’
Politics UK@PolitlcsUK

🚨 NEW: Andy Burnham lists 5 changes he will make as Labour leader 1. End infighting within the party 2. End point-scoring 3. Set out a direction that is "distinctively Labour" by "being us" 4. Return power to people across the entire UK 5. Be a "pro-business leader"

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Gordon Woods
Gordon Woods@sjoh0050·
@chriskeating @DuncanStott Nor did they spend 40 years in a call centre dealing with the great British public. The overwhelming majority of public sector pensioners did not earn large salaries.
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Duncan Stott 🏗️🔰🇺🇦
The public sector workforce gets paid mediocre up-front salaries but are promised gold-plated pensions. It's just another way we push more of today's costs onto future taxpayers.
Stuey Beef 🇬🇧🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿@stuey_beef

Retired public sector workers were handed a record £56bn in “gold‑plated” pensions in 2025‑26 – roughly £2,000 torn out of the pocket of every household in the country. Not for schools, not for hospitals, not for policing or defence – for a guaranteed income stream to people who no longer work, under schemes that were never properly funded and never honestly explained to the public. The political class calls this “rewarding service”. What it actually rewards is being on the inside when the deal was written: final‑salary, inflation‑proofed pensions backed by the Treasury, completely insulated from the economic reality facing everyone else. Millions of younger private‑sector workers with fragile defined‑contribution pots, insecure work and no hope of retiring at 60 are being ordered to bankroll comfortable retirements for a state‑sector aristocracy who were promised more than the country ever put aside in cash. This isn’t some accident of history. Governments of all colours signed cheques they knew future taxpayers would have to cash, then buried the true scale of the obligation. Labour now sits on that broken model, refuses to reform it, and pretends the only answer is “tax the rich” – while quietly taxing the young, the renting and the working poor to maintain deals they never voted for and will never receive themselves.

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