

chud.eth
610 posts

@chud_eth
an investment thesis without numbers is just a pre-written obituary. cultivating @sandboxtreecap









Gnosis GIP-150 failed 28/72. Strip out Gnosis Ltd leadership's votes and it flips to 78% in favour. Non-team holders want a fair exit and an answer on the NAV discount. Leadership's response: maybe more spending, no exit. Longer version: GIP-150 did not pass. The final vote was 28% in favour, 72% against. Excluding Gnosis Ltd leadership’s tokens shifts the result to 78% in favour. Their personally held tokens are legitimate, circulating, and rightly count. It is only the Ltd-held GNO that we categorically reject as circulating until it is deployed on endeavours generating greater than 1x ROI. This breakdown matters because it makes a structural problem unavoidable. The same three individuals are Gnosis Ltd cofounders, Ltd executives, and as co-founders of Gnosis, the largest individual GNO holders. They are funded by the DAO, operate the entities receiving DAO funding, and hold the voting power that decides whether that funding continues. Their personal token votes are not cast as independent tokenholders weighing a proposal on the merits; they are cast in alignment with their roles as cofounders and directors of the entity the proposal affects. When the votes attributable to that concentration are removed, the remaining holders speak clearly: 78% in favour of a fair exit and an honest answer to the discount to NAV. What is currently being represented as “the DAO’s view” is in substance the founders’ view, voted through by founders, on a proposal that constrained the founders’ own operational latitude. That is not a decentralized DAO. The substance of the result is unambiguous regardless of how one feels about the specific mechanism. There is clear and undeniable support among GNO holders outside of Gnosis Ltd leadership for meaningful change, along with a mandate to prioritise trading above true NAV at the bare minimum and providing a fair exit mechanism for those unwilling to remain through another pivot. A protective mechanism for those willing to give the new vision a chance, without necessarily signing the entire treasury away to spending, should also exist. Both should co-exist, and become part of Gnosis DAO. The response from leadership in the days following the beginning of the vote has been the opposite of what a 78% non-team result calls for. Leadership has verbally floated a meaningfully higher operational spending envelope for the next funding cycle, as well as a hostility towards exploring a solution, while pretending there was interest from third parties to purchase participations in GNO, yet these third parties would not even buy it below NAV. Reading a result in which 78% of non-team holders signalled they want a path to realize NAV as a mandate to ignore an adequate exit solution and increase spending is not a tenable position. It is the precise inverse of what was voted for, and it confirms the concern that motivated this proposal: that operational discretion at Gnosis Ltd is being exercised without regard to the tokenholders the DAO exists to serve. We will give leadership a week to reflect on this striking result and consider whether they genuinely accept its implications. If they do, and wish to engage on shaping the next proposal to protect non-team GNO holders, we are ready to work with them. If leadership continues to disregard the outcome, we will have no choice but to bring forward a further proposal without their input. We trust that there will be no additional spending bruteforced through by these founder-held tokens, against the spirit of a decentralized DAO. Defensive voting with 385k GNO over disagreements on mechanism is one thing. Using that same concentration to force non-consensual spending increases against a vote that just produced a 78% non-team signal for value return is quite another, and would be impossible to reconcile with any claim that this is a tokenholder-governed organization. We look forward to engaging further with GNO holders to shape the proposal. Whether you are a long-term holder or a new holder, please reach out to provide input.









Some personal thoughts on the Gnosis discussion 💭 Note: I've no skin in the game on either side. I've always found the RFV / NAV discussions in DAOs interesting, and this is one of the oldest, successful, product-shipping & richest ones out there. I probably lack some nuance here, but I've read enough opinions to throw in one more into the mix 😶🌫️ Let's not forget that they shipped some amazing products over the years, supported builders and hackathons, and so on. The value created has been incredible (aka @safe and @CoWSwap to name some). The value capture though is another story, and everyone's aware of that. 1. If GNO isn't officially advertized as having assets backing (RFV) or having a bottom price line protected by the assets - then moral claims to treasury can't be assumed. If it isn't advertized as a hedge fund, then it isn't one. Holders could in theory bring up these discussions (which they did), but that's not a moral dilemma then - it's just a voting / financial outcome. 2. I remember buybacks happened in the past though which could in theory suggest that the backing theory existed, but that's again more of a legal rather than a moral discussion. Having a high enough price helps with M&As, incentives, team bonuses if any, etc. Everyone knows that high FDV is better to have when you start doing things "in kind", because then your present cash spending could be reduced as a result. Thus, it's obviously a good thing to not have the price go low even if no immediate $$-interests are at stake. - As a holder, the choice seems pretty simple: continue believing that the value capture will eventually happen and thus you'll make $ from the products created. Or don't believe it and see your investment fall in price eventually (which then means you should just sell). And if it's an investment, that's exactly how it works - not a hedge fund after all. - As an outsider, I can't call Gnosis DAO anything but value-producing for the ecosystem. So as an outsider I see it as either "let people take the RFV and arb some premium as a result - and have a value-producing DAO die" or "let them try again and again and see if it works out". That sounds like venture to me. The one thing I don't have an opinion/answer to is "random buybacks" (aka the plunge protection would occur but at random times). In theory, one could say there is no backing, but when the price would fall - arbitrage this difference? But then you assume foul play from the founding team, and with such theories, it might be better for you not to hold in the first place - since nothing good comes when such assumptions are made. As for the pet projects, as the biggest holders they could potentially push what they believe in (for whatever reason) and either you think they are right - or you think they're wrong and sell. But end of the day, there is nothing immoral here. It's just a choice of "are you in for the ride or you've had enough". 3. Whether this venture is good and whether the spending budgets requested are justified - that's another topic. Holders could in theory vote against those things. If you are a majority holder, you can do either that, or RFV, or something else. We've seen the @aave DAO recently also go through tough but important discussions. And to people saying the treasury is financially mismanaged: well, try building products, navigating bear markets, hiring, staying relevant AND managing a treasury like a hedge fund. Let's see you execute all these things perfectly. 5. I am all for token holder protections, value being inside tokens, and all that - I am not against tokenizing value onchain at all. But scapegoating people who are much further on the "good" spectrum isn't the way to get there. M&As where token holders get rekt fully (aka @HoudiniSwap being the recent case) is where investor protections should be. But trying & building & genuinely shipping good stuff (with questionable value capture in some cases) isn't foul play in my opinion, these are just cases which require solving value capture, not closing. That's venture. Imho.





GIP-150 vote is now 54% against after an address that was funded from the Gnosis deployer 9 years ago voted against (probably a founder). If you remove the 2 related parties (Stefan, Gnosis founder and Ltd CTO), the voting is 83% in favour. I took the time to address some of Gnosis Ltd's points below.



The proposal to let GNO holders redeem their pro-rata share of the treasury has passed quorum and is now the most voted proposal ever. For people blessed with the ability to read long texts, you can catch the conversation here: forum.gnosis.io/t/gip-150-shou…



