chud.eth

610 posts

chud.eth

chud.eth

@chud_eth

an investment thesis without numbers is just a pre-written obituary. cultivating @sandboxtreecap

Katılım Mayıs 2025
362 Takip Edilen8.7K Takipçiler
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chud.eth
chud.eth@chud_eth·
I would like to coin the term PPP: principal protected ponzi; the worst that can happen to you is you get your money back at a date you decide (no time rug). gov proposal just went live, things moving faster than expected tbh OHM CDs launching in ~1wk only $1m cap to start which will likely get instafilled, then a short capped rollout before opening the floodgates good chance for everyone to watch the system working before being able to ape properly reminder: you deposit USDS, get OHM calls which you can convert any time, protocol uses the sUSDS yield to buy and burn, send OHM up, make your calls worth more something to think about for any of you second order thinkers: if you see someone deposit $100m of deposits which means $4.5m/yr annualized buyback and burns, are you more or less likely to then deposit to CDs yourself? you deposit, and the next guy sees even more programmatic buy pressure incoming, maybe now it's up to $6m/yr. are they now more or less likely to also deposit? yes this is all pure financial engineering, the token is the product, but do you want to play the game?
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chud.eth
chud.eth@chud_eth·
a third party proposed increasing the Olympus CDs cap to $60mil with a $5mil/day target proposer funded directly from large wallet that recently bought $4m of OHM on open market, so clearly wants exposure. reminder: deposits to CDs have all yield go to buying back and burning OHM => makes the CDs more likely to convert profitably => new deposits to CDs higher +EV => positive feedback loop $50m of hypothetical CDs (idk how much they want in reality) = extra $5.5m/yr annualized buybacks just from the CDs if they don't convert, free $5.5m of buybacks and protocol gives nothing back in exchange, win. if they do convert, backing goes +10%, everyone can borrow 10% more per OHM => hOHM does another $15m in OHM purchases over the following yr, which... makes it more attractive for someone to ape another $50m into CDs and start it all over again (idk if the proposer will ape 50mil or anything at all, but seems odd to propose this if you didn't want to use it)
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chud.eth
chud.eth@chud_eth·
Gnosis Ltd dressing up the situation as something it's not is the pattern. Not 10%, trading much further below NAV. No, you and your mates are the useless leechers. When was the last time you were involved in something that turned a profit? On payroll again now I hear, $1m/yr! Can't be bad for doing sweet fuck all.
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Luigy Lemon
Luigy Lemon@luigyGT·
@chud_eth @spreekaway @arkham So the vesting cliff was reached and he didn’t take it. Meanwhile you will FUD a whole business and community for an extra 10%. Useless leecher
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chud.eth
chud.eth@chud_eth·
Gnosis Ltd employees trying to make a big statement around large independent GNO holders being happy with the status quo & spending. ty @arkham for the easy layup here
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chud.eth
chud.eth@chud_eth·
don't really understand this take tbh - do you think $30m/yr spend with $400k revenue is a good thing? sustainable? destined to be crippled without intervention? genuine question - leadership are the ones on course to cripple tokenholders. think you're missing the balanced view which is that this level of spending with no return is taking advantage of GNO holders, especially now that we know that they will use founder held GNO to control governance. We tried to engage on improvements, product, allocation for months but wasn't much receptivity. Then they rugged 250k tokens and stopped buybacks, and now talking about spending even MORE to fix their poor growth. There should be an option for people to exit at a fair price if they don't buy into that wild vision. Lastly, the framing that we're seeking 'max money' is not really accurate. NAV is a very neutral value, they keep all the intangible value spent to date - you can't say that they've been allocating $30m/yr acceptably on one hand, and then on the other say that NAV without the value created by any of that spend is extractive on the other. If it's been worthwhile spend, then the value is given up by people exiting at NAV. If it's not been worthwhile spend, then.. well, why should they get more? Gotta choose one.
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pray.eth
pray.eth@pray_eth·
@chud_eth What's your end goal here? To fix Gnosis DAO for long-term success? Or extract as much $$$ as possible and exit, leaving it crippled? GIP-150 seemed to be about resignation, i.e. "We can't fix this, so we want max money to exit." Curious how things will change in one week.
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chud.eth
chud.eth@chud_eth·
update on GNO vote didn't pass, but the issue is stark and unavoidable for leadership. bruteforcing stuff with their tokens with a dual role of leadership AND largest tokenholders works once for 'defensive' framing (although totally disagree ofc). however, continuing to do so - especially if it moves to bruteforcing spending - would really throw the idea that Gnosis Ltd is independent to the DAO into problematic territory (and it is required to be)... will give a week of cooldown and hopefully engagement before initiating a new proposal.
Wismerhill@0xWismerhill

Gnosis GIP-150 failed 28/72. Strip out Gnosis Ltd leadership's votes and it flips to 78% in favour. Non-team holders want a fair exit and an answer on the NAV discount. Leadership's response: maybe more spending, no exit. Longer version: GIP-150 did not pass. The final vote was 28% in favour, 72% against. Excluding Gnosis Ltd leadership’s tokens shifts the result to 78% in favour. Their personally held tokens are legitimate, circulating, and rightly count. It is only the Ltd-held GNO that we categorically reject as circulating until it is deployed on endeavours generating greater than 1x ROI. This breakdown matters because it makes a structural problem unavoidable. The same three individuals are Gnosis Ltd cofounders, Ltd executives, and as co-founders of Gnosis, the largest individual GNO holders. They are funded by the DAO, operate the entities receiving DAO funding, and hold the voting power that decides whether that funding continues. Their personal token votes are not cast as independent tokenholders weighing a proposal on the merits; they are cast in alignment with their roles as cofounders and directors of the entity the proposal affects. When the votes attributable to that concentration are removed, the remaining holders speak clearly: 78% in favour of a fair exit and an honest answer to the discount to NAV. What is currently being represented as “the DAO’s view” is in substance the founders’ view, voted through by founders, on a proposal that constrained the founders’ own operational latitude. That is not a decentralized DAO. The substance of the result is unambiguous regardless of how one feels about the specific mechanism. There is clear and undeniable support among GNO holders outside of Gnosis Ltd leadership for meaningful change, along with a mandate to prioritise trading above true NAV at the bare minimum and providing a fair exit mechanism for those unwilling to remain through another pivot. A protective mechanism for those willing to give the new vision a chance, without necessarily signing the entire treasury away to spending, should also exist. Both should co-exist, and become part of Gnosis DAO. The response from leadership in the days following the beginning of the vote has been the opposite of what a 78% non-team result calls for. Leadership has verbally floated a meaningfully higher operational spending envelope for the next funding cycle, as well as a hostility towards exploring a solution, while pretending there was interest from third parties to purchase participations in GNO, yet these third parties would not even buy it below NAV. Reading a result in which 78% of non-team holders signalled they want a path to realize NAV as a mandate to ignore an adequate exit solution and increase spending is not a tenable position. It is the precise inverse of what was voted for, and it confirms the concern that motivated this proposal: that operational discretion at Gnosis Ltd is being exercised without regard to the tokenholders the DAO exists to serve. We will give leadership a week to reflect on this striking result and consider whether they genuinely accept its implications. If they do, and wish to engage on shaping the next proposal to protect non-team GNO holders, we are ready to work with them. If leadership continues to disregard the outcome, we will have no choice but to bring forward a further proposal without their input. We trust that there will be no additional spending bruteforced through by these founder-held tokens, against the spirit of a decentralized DAO. Defensive voting with 385k GNO over disagreements on mechanism is one thing. Using that same concentration to force non-consensual spending increases against a vote that just produced a 78% non-team signal for value return is quite another, and would be impossible to reconcile with any claim that this is a tokenholder-governed organization. We look forward to engaging further with GNO holders to shape the proposal. Whether you are a long-term holder or a new holder, please reach out to provide input.

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chud.eth
chud.eth@chud_eth·
1) Gnosis Ltd removed most of the GNO liquidity in order to conduct buybacks, which they've now stopped but haven't readded liquidity. Look at how much GNO wants an exit on the snapshot, then look at the liquidity. 2) You've misunderstood the proposal. The opt-in vote isn't part of the decisive vote - anyone could have redeemed, even those who voted no during this voting stage. Step 1 is 'the proposal', which is live now. Step 2 is what you're referring to, which is just a secondary snapshot to signal who wants to exit, so that the treasury manager can get their assets ready in the contract. 'No' voters in the decisive proposal would have been eligible still. Otherwise, treasury manager has to put ALL assets into the redemption contract because they don't know who wants to leave. It's not a self-fulfilling mechanism at all, and was deliberately done this way so that normal operations could continue for the rest of the assets without disruption.
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Devansh Mehta
Devansh Mehta@devanshmehta·
@chud_eth Sorry guys i think you got a bit greedy on this one for 2 reasons; 1. Fighting for an extra $43 per GNO token? Just sell on the open market ffs 2. I really disliked the part of the proposal where only those voting yes on the snapshot are eligible for the redemption
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chud.eth
chud.eth@chud_eth·
Incredible scenes yet again - this is precisely the problem here from this team. This is what happened last time in private convos, they committed to changes, a definition of NAV, then 5 mins later turned it on its head and rugged it all. Commitments to progress, almost immediately reneged. 'Signal how much wants an exit option', 'We will make sure nobody will be trapped' and then 'yeah actually I realized nobody will invest more money with us because of our track record but we still want to spend a lot more, so all we can do is match buyers and sellers' - so if no buyers come in then what, we're trapped. We're trading under NAV lmao, there's no long queue of GNO buyers, it's delusion. it's the latest in a long series of rugs. It's insane that they've used 400k of founder-held GNO to vote this proposal down and frame it as a 'supermajority' - without founder tokens it would be 90% voting for it to pass. Don't get me wrong, fully accepting of the result of this vote given founder tokens are circulating - we'll have to come back with another one (and another one until our funds stop being a slush fund) - but to still bury your heads in the sand that you're doing an awful job at managing this situation just exemplifies why it won't go away. now rugging the buybacks too btw! because guess what, he wants to spend MORE than the $30m that was spent with ZERO return.
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chud.eth
chud.eth@chud_eth·
"we have interested parties that want to take long term bets on Gnosis" but they refuse to pay >$0 for Gnosis' enterprise value on open market? clearly BS "and EEZ" so this latest 2 month old pivot? great, another grand plan that looks and smells like public goods with 0 hope of an ROI! literally trapping ppl after saying they won't
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chud.eth
chud.eth@chud_eth·
@mrtdlgc @ivangbi_ not derailing anything... you accused me of something and I put you right on the facts lmao.
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mrtdlgc.eth 🦉🦇🔊
well, if anyone promised you a NAV, then they are in the wrong too. but you apparently like derailing the conversation and sorry, i have nothing to gain nor lose in your endeavor personally. better not engage with stuff not really within my control at all. good luck convincing people that this is not a known governance attack attempt.
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mrtdlgc.eth 🦉🦇🔊
What is going on with the GIP-150 in Gnosis governance has nothing to do with token holder rights. This is not an informed take, hence reductionist. This is exactly the kind of behavior that the RFVooors who created the proposal were hoping to get to blur the discussion.
ivangbi 🦞@ivangbi_

Some personal thoughts on the Gnosis discussion 💭 Note: I've no skin in the game on either side. I've always found the RFV / NAV discussions in DAOs interesting, and this is one of the oldest, successful, product-shipping & richest ones out there. I probably lack some nuance here, but I've read enough opinions to throw in one more into the mix 😶‍🌫️ Let's not forget that they shipped some amazing products over the years, supported builders and hackathons, and so on. The value created has been incredible (aka @safe and @CoWSwap to name some). The value capture though is another story, and everyone's aware of that. 1. If GNO isn't officially advertized as having assets backing (RFV) or having a bottom price line protected by the assets - then moral claims to treasury can't be assumed. If it isn't advertized as a hedge fund, then it isn't one. Holders could in theory bring up these discussions (which they did), but that's not a moral dilemma then - it's just a voting / financial outcome. 2. I remember buybacks happened in the past though which could in theory suggest that the backing theory existed, but that's again more of a legal rather than a moral discussion. Having a high enough price helps with M&As, incentives, team bonuses if any, etc. Everyone knows that high FDV is better to have when you start doing things "in kind", because then your present cash spending could be reduced as a result. Thus, it's obviously a good thing to not have the price go low even if no immediate $$-interests are at stake. - As a holder, the choice seems pretty simple: continue believing that the value capture will eventually happen and thus you'll make $ from the products created. Or don't believe it and see your investment fall in price eventually (which then means you should just sell). And if it's an investment, that's exactly how it works - not a hedge fund after all. - As an outsider, I can't call Gnosis DAO anything but value-producing for the ecosystem. So as an outsider I see it as either "let people take the RFV and arb some premium as a result - and have a value-producing DAO die" or "let them try again and again and see if it works out". That sounds like venture to me. The one thing I don't have an opinion/answer to is "random buybacks" (aka the plunge protection would occur but at random times). In theory, one could say there is no backing, but when the price would fall - arbitrage this difference? But then you assume foul play from the founding team, and with such theories, it might be better for you not to hold in the first place - since nothing good comes when such assumptions are made. As for the pet projects, as the biggest holders they could potentially push what they believe in (for whatever reason) and either you think they are right - or you think they're wrong and sell. But end of the day, there is nothing immoral here. It's just a choice of "are you in for the ride or you've had enough". 3. Whether this venture is good and whether the spending budgets requested are justified - that's another topic. Holders could in theory vote against those things. If you are a majority holder, you can do either that, or RFV, or something else. We've seen the @aave DAO recently also go through tough but important discussions. And to people saying the treasury is financially mismanaged: well, try building products, navigating bear markets, hiring, staying relevant AND managing a treasury like a hedge fund. Let's see you execute all these things perfectly. 5. I am all for token holder protections, value being inside tokens, and all that - I am not against tokenizing value onchain at all. But scapegoating people who are much further on the "good" spectrum isn't the way to get there. M&As where token holders get rekt fully (aka @HoudiniSwap being the recent case) is where investor protections should be. But trying & building & genuinely shipping good stuff (with questionable value capture in some cases) isn't foul play in my opinion, these are just cases which require solving value capture, not closing. That's venture. Imho.

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chud.eth@chud_eth·
No, you're making shit up with absolutely zero basis just because you want it to be true so desperately. We bought GNO and attempted to engage on products, treasury, etc. for a long time. Do you want to play a game of chicken on that and call it a lie? I'll happily prove you wrong. Also, the biggest yes voter has held GNO for years. Your BS take doesn't stack up one bit. tldr; do you want me to post those chats to stop your runaway fantasy or what? If I do, are you going to apologize for making shit up so confidently? Let's disprove you on the spot tbh - if they walk back the 250k GNO rug (circulating before spend, when only spend is on >1x ROI stuff) and stop-start buybacks just to fuck OTCers over, then I'll lock my GNO another year. How are you going to spin this one now?
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mrtdlgc.eth 🦉🦇🔊
Let me clarify what you guys are attempting to do in practice here. You saw a possible attack vector. Accumulated GNO. Then made up the bullshit "NAV" definition. And now trying to get easy exit well above market price of the token. Simple as that. And I know all this could have been avoided if the actual discussions on accountability were taken seriously in the past without creating this attack vector that you guys are trying to benefit from. But that doesn't change the fact that you are tying a governance attack for quick gains. So yeah, obviously everything boils down to RFVooors. Cause that's what you are lmao
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chud.eth
chud.eth@chud_eth·
not the case, kept trying to engage on buybacks for months before having to resort to this - ask the founders, if they're unwilling then i'll publish the chats myself tbh to stop this nonsense take. we supported the status quo until the buybacks stopped for shady otc purposes & introduction of non-circ GNO. You and everyone else totally skip past this point, that we've held GNO for months happily with no rfv prop until that line in the sand. the reductionist take is yours, that everything boils down to rfvoooors.
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mrtdlgc.eth 🦉🦇🔊
The RFVooors are a sophisticated group of actors who are known to reduce the discussion to exactly the point you are making. I am not saying you willfully back their position, but your blabla is reductionist enough that it literally serves to their purpose in their social engineering kind of attack. The current proposal is not asking for accountability, which is a token holder right. It is literally asking to loot a treasury with no grounding, and it is a sophisticated attack on governance where they would love you to talk about the proposal in a way that is not really reflecting what it is actually doing.
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chud.eth
chud.eth@chud_eth·
will be buying more GNO and put forward a new proposal soon - 'wait this out' isn't going to work here. Further, I think conflicted founders swinging the vote here is one thing (have my own thoughts, but whatever), but swinging the vote when it comes to the next funding proposal to their own org would be something else entirely.. If @StefanDGeorge @tw_tter want to engage on what the next proposal looks like then happy to get something acceptable to both sides passed asap, otherwise we'll probably be posting GIPs 151-200 until GNO holders finally have some financial protection against what is increasingly obvious - that many people see GNO holders' treasury as an infinite pot of cash for their feel good, zero revenue projects. we will get checks and balances introduced, buying more until it's done.
Wismerhill@0xWismerhill

GIP-150 vote is now 54% against after an address that was funded from the Gnosis deployer 9 years ago voted against (probably a founder). If you remove the 2 related parties (Stefan, Gnosis founder and Ltd CTO), the voting is 83% in favour. I took the time to address some of Gnosis Ltd's points below.

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chud.eth@chud_eth·
It's called a governance proposal, and it's being voted on. Not by half baked fetal alcohol donkeys like yourself with voting power weighted by extra chromosomes, but voting power weighted by GNO holdings. Really simple, mate. 'there's technically no contract to say governance is binding' and 'there's some unwritten implicit right to spend the treasury on public goods' are the most incongruent pair of arguments.
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Nick Almond
Nick Almond@DrNickA·
@yieldchad @chud_eth What contract did you sign? None. You have some ERC20’s in your wallet and you own them because you have self custodial control over them, they didn’t come with an implicit I get to shut this project down and rug it when I feel like it rights.
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Nick Almond
Nick Almond@DrNickA·
If you have any GNO go and vote against these basic treasury ruggers. Gnosis have brought a lot of value to the broader ecosystem over the years. DAOs such as this one have the mandate to keep that going indefinitely.
Wismerhill@0xWismerhill

The proposal to let GNO holders redeem their pro-rata share of the treasury has passed quorum and is now the most voted proposal ever. For people blessed with the ability to read long texts, you can catch the conversation here: forum.gnosis.io/t/gip-150-shou…

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chud.eth@chud_eth·
@DrNickA A token with absolute rights to direct the treasury. But instead, you think you unilaterally decide. Absolute twat.
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Nick Almond
Nick Almond@DrNickA·
@chud_eth It’s very simple mate, this is crypto. You did not invest in a company you bought a token. The GNO token has other utility beyond your absolute normie conception of what an asset is.
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chud.eth
chud.eth@chud_eth·
@DrNickA You fund it then with your money. Otherwise, it's you that can fuck off with your desire to spend my money on your public benefit. 'people beyond the DAO' what a retard jfc.
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Nick Almond
Nick Almond@DrNickA·
There is a chance the wider gnosis tools become valuable and important in the future, DAOs like this are implicitly about making sure future people can use them. killing them to pay you for a frankly poor trade is a shit outcome for people beyond the DAO. You should just fuck off.
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chud.eth
chud.eth@chud_eth·
so your *implicit* ideals are gospel and should be allowed to drain the treasury to zero in the name of vibes, but a NAV per GNO (*explicitly* represented btw) is not allowed to be considered for governance execution, and called 'treasury rugging' when people want assets attributable to their own tokens. incredible, got it.
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Nick Almond
Nick Almond@DrNickA·
@chud_eth I think that’s fairly implicit in DAOs such as this one yes, it’s there to maintain an open source code base indefinitely.
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chud.eth
chud.eth@chud_eth·
@DrNickA but it's apparently explicit that there's a mandate for indefinite public goods spending? No, you just made it up.
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Nick Almond
Nick Almond@DrNickA·
@chud_eth It is in no way explicit that the treasury is owned pro rata by the token holders, in some designs it is. Those with explicit exit rights in the code. If you bought a token without that functionality that’s your mistake if that’s what you wanted.
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