CK Lee

Doing research on the See/Basset T-38 crash that changed history and I found conflicting info on what runways were being used. Lots of stories seem to think the initial approach was 24, but they came from the southwest, and It looks like 12R was the initial plan. The crash investigation has never been published, but historian Colin Burgess acquired a copy from Basset's widow, and, his version makes more sense than the other sources. They were arriving from the southwest and they wouldn't have wanted to fly many miles past the airfield to the northeast when there was an approach from the northeast. Then when they made the decision to try and turn under the clouds there would be no need to do a complete 360 turn to come back to the original runway when there was another option. The big question I have is in regards to the original approach, they were expecting a glide slope, but didn't get one, and started descent late. Was this because the vertical guidance was out of service, or, was it just a localizer in 1966. It's hard to find this information, old charts and approach plates seem to be hard to find on the internet. It might be in the NASA report into the crash, but that's not public. (please note the red line shows a turn that is likely too tight for a T-38 , I just wanted to fit it in the USGS imagery from 1968)

Saddle up

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Golden Tempo was literally dead last in the final turn and then outkicked everyone to win the Kentucky Derby. What an insane finish.

Search is full of ads and wrong answers. Every other email is an ad. Prime Video charges you and shows ads. Paramount? Ads. Peacock? YouTube? Hulu? Ads followed by more ads. Netflix full of ads. Meta and X, every other thing is an ad. Pinterest is nothing but ads. AI is in everything. AI finishes sentences incorrectly and won’t stop. AI reads your email and search history to target you with more ads. Every time you open an app or visit a site there’s an update making it worse. In a hurry? First, click here to agree to terms you don’t have time to read and must accept. You need an account to do that. Change your temporary password. Enter your 2FA code. Check your email and enter that code. Now use a passkey. Your password is too simple to remember. Change it. No, not like that. Now log on. Enter your 2FA code. Check your email for a code… Welcome back! We’ve updated our terms of service and privacy policy (you have none). Subscribe to the site. Subscribe to Netflix. Subscribe to toilet paper. Subscribe to these groceries. Pay a membership fee for the right to subscribe then tip your driver who delivers the subscriptions your membership lets you subscribe to. Time to work? We’ve got to update your laptop and will slow down everything you do until you agree to update. But first, click here to agree. Update installed — your laptop’s broken now. It doesn’t matter, since your boss just replaced you with AI. Go to your phone to complain on social media. Wait, your phone needs an update so we can add more AI. Click here. Oh sorry, your phone can’t handle this update. Now it’s useless. Go get the newest phone. Here’s a text from a friend, an email, a voice mail they left three days ago but you didn’t see until now because of sync problems with the cloud. It’s their GoFundMe. Their MLM. Their Patreon. Never mind, you didn’t respond to their text within 9 minutes and now you’re no longer friends. They blocked you. Make new friends. Download this app to find people in your area. In your neighborhood. On your street. Two doors down from you. Do you know this person yet, we think you’d get along. You need an account to use this app. That username is taken. Enter a password. Not that one, you used it on another site. You need to be connected to WiFi to download the app. Allow the app to connect to other devices on your network. Allow the app to access your contacts, know your precise location, store your credit card details. Oops, sorry, we got hacked now all that info is available on the web. There’s a class action suit. You can join. It’ll take a decade to get your $3.73 share of the ten billion settlement. We’ll send it via PayPal or deposit it to your bank, just tell us those details. Oh no, another hack. That info is circulating now, too. Here’s a spam call, a spam email, a spam text. Why are you angry? Why are you talking about getting rid of your phone? Why don’t you like AI, it lets us make all of this easier? Do you know how ridiculous that sounds? This is progress. You’ll be left behind. Do you want to be left behind? Do you???

In 1962, C.S. Lewis was asked to name the books that most influenced his life philosophy. The list he came up had many classics, but also some lesser known gems. Here’s his list:

Those that claim the US dollar dominance is at risk or in decline, due to the Iran war, are completely wrong. The US dollar is becoming even more dominant in international transiations. The US dollar's percentage of international transactions rose to a record 51.1% in March. The world is still betting on the USA as the world reserve currency. China is not an option due to capital restrictions. Europe is in economy stagnation and decline, so the Euro currency is not really an option. The "news" media is trying to sell a narrative, but the data is clear. The US dollar still dominates trade and it is growing, not declining.

Overheard in Silicon Valley: “Alexander wept, for there were no more situations left to monitor.” cc @MTSlive

One of the most moving things I’ve ever read was the letter from a former Confederate to a dying former President Grant

😂

Amen

The Strait of Hormuz Reverse Uno Card When Raji Khabbaz and I were running Silver Arrow Investment Management, whenever we were trying to figure out why something happened, he was unsatisfied the explanation that people are sometimes stupid and institutions are often stupid. He correctly thought that people usually have a good reason (at least to them) for doing something even if it appears to make little sense to an outsider. More importantly, he thought that “sometimes people are stupid” was a lazy answer that was dismissive. As investors, it was our goal to understand what was happening, not to ignore it. Recently, I’ve written that many of President Trump’s critics are making the same error. When Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that previously transported 20% of the world’s oil supply, the price of oil rose. Gas prices in the US have risen in response. Many screamed that this was an obvious move by the Iranian regime and insisted President Trump should have known it was something they’d do. How could he not know?! In 2002, the US Navy conducted war games they called the Millennium Challenge. One side represented Iran. The other represented the technologically superior US Navy and included an aircraft carrier, warships, and cruisers. The US Navy side had a substantial advantage in firepower. Retired Marine Corps Lieutenant General Paul K. Van Riper used asymmetric warfare tactics to wipe out the US side in one day. Had this been a real fight, the US would have lost 20,000 servicemen. The result was such an embarrassment that the Navy re-floated the sunk ships, changed the rules of engagement to ensure a US victory, and started the challenge again. These games were not a secret. They have been widely covered in the mainstream media and have been the subject of a New York Times documentary. Over the past two decades, I have seen the Millennium Challenge discussed in my daily financial news reading at least a dozen times. The event has its own Wikipedia page. Regardless of your opinion of President Trump, do you really believe that neither he, nor anyone in the White House, nor any of his military advisors, nor Secretary of War, Hegseth knew about this? I realize that many of you reading this have strong negative emotions regarding President Trump. I’m not asking you to like or respect him. I’m just suggesting that “he’s stupid and has no idea what he’s doing” is not good analysis. This is a point I’ve made in this space in the past. Early in the war, Iran closed the Strait which placed economic pressure on the rest of the world. Despite the fact that it was Iran mining the Strait and shooting at the ships that attempted to navigate it, many countries expressed anger at the US and Israel. This was the outcome Iran wanted. Then, the regime decided to allow friendly ships to pass if they paid a fee. The fees were about $1/barrel of oil, or about $2MM per large container vessel. (Many of these fees were paid in Bitcoin, something macro analyst, @peruvian_bull, explained in an excellent post within the past week.) This looked like worst-case scenario for the US. Iran succeeded in closing the Strait and causing economic problems all over the world, then found a way to profit from their own actions. Then, President Trump played his “reverse uno” card. He correctly realized that it wasn’t just the rest of the world that depended on free passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and that it was Iran that had the most exposure. Iran is a big oil producer, and oil exports account for 80% of Iran’s exports, 60% of government revenue, and 25% of its GDP. It turns out that Iran has more economic exposure to this narrow waterway than anyone else. President Trump sent the US Navy to form a blockade. He closed the Strait himself ensuring no more $2MM/vessel charges and an inability for Iran to export oil. Iran is close to filling its own storage. Once its oil tanks are full, the regime has two choices, either capitulate and come to an agreement with the US, or to stop producing from its own wells. The problem with the second choice is that it’s difficult to reverse. Stopping production on an active oil well tends to damage it and it’s hard to re-start later. Iran now has a limited amount of time to find a course of action before 25% of its GDP becomes permanently(ish) impaired. While no one in the US likes paying more for gas, prices were much higher just four years ago in 2022 and around $4/gallon in 2008, 2011, and 2012 when $4 had more purchasing power than it does now. The US is a net energy exporter with an economy that has survived higher prices in the past. Foreign ships are turning away from the Strait of Hormuz and sailing to Texas and other southern US ports to fill up at premium prices. I’m not suggesting that this is great for the US; but rather, that the US is well-suited to manage the situation while Iran is about to be faced with a massive long-term problem. Finally, Iran maintains control of the country using extensive human infrastructure. There are police everywhere monitoring protests, internet usage, the attire of citizens, and the hair of Iranian women. That level of control is expensive and the government just lost 60% of its revenue. I’m wondering how long they’ll keep doing their jobs without paychecks. I don’t know how this conflict will end. What I do know is that President Trump and the US Navy have turned Iran’s biggest strategic strength into a giant weakness. Sometimes people do stupid things. And sometimes, we just aren’t seeing the reasoning behind those actions. Last week, one of DKI’s interns wrote, ”The bottom line is that (financial analysis) can tell you what the market’s pricing in, but it’s your job to figure out why”. Right now, the mullahs are facing a difficult decision. It will be interesting to see what comes next.

Excellent film!

The case against modern journalism. Too many ideological know- and do-nothings hold microphones.

For two centuries, the Ottoman Empire had pushed westward, swallowing kingdoms whole. Vienna was on the brink of collapse, the gate to all of Europe was about to fall open. Then, over the ridge of the Kahlenberg hill, came the largest cavalry charge in recorded history. 🔸By 1683, the Ottoman Empire was the most powerful military force on earth. Grand Vizier Kara Mustafa marched with more than 150,000 soldiers toward Vienna, pulling with him over 300 cannons and a supply chain that stretched back to Constantinople. 🔸On July 14th, the Ottomans surrounded Vienna and began digging. They ran tunnels beneath the city walls, packed them with gunpowder, and detonated them one by one. The city's 12,000 - 15,000 defenders watched their walls crumble from the inside out. 🔸After two months under siege, Vienna was dying. Food had run out, disease was spreading through the streets, and the garrison had lost a third of its men. The city's commander, Ernst Rüdiger von Starhemberg, sent desperate messengers through enemy lines begging for relief. 🔸Holy Roman Emperor Leopold I had spent weeks negotiating one of the most unlikely alliances in European history. Catholic Austria, Protestant German princes, and the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth agreed to set aside their rivalries and march together. King Jan III Sobieski of Poland would lead them. 🔸Jan Sobieski was already a legend before Vienna. He had spent his career fighting the Ottomans on Poland's eastern frontier, and the Turks called him the "Lion of Lechistan." When the Pope personally wrote to him asking for help, Sobieski mobilized 74,000 men and began the march south. 🔸On the evening of September 11th, the allied commanders gathered on the Kahlenberg hill overlooking Vienna. Below them, the Ottoman camp stretched across the plain like a city of its own, with silk tents, horse herds, and cooking fires as far as the eye could see. Sobieski turned to his son and said: "Tomorrow we fight." 🔸The battle opened at dawn on September 12th with infantry clashing in the woods and ravines below the hill. For eight hours the fighting ground on, neither side breaking. Then, at around four in the afternoon, Sobieski ordered his cavalry to the ridge. 🔸The Polish Winged Hussars were the most feared heavy cavalry in the world. They rode massive warhorses, carried 16-foot lances, and wore wooden frames on their backs that held enormous eagle and ostrich feathers. At full gallop, the wings created a roaring sound that witnesses said was unlike anything they had ever heard. 🔸18,000 horsemen crested the hill and began riding downhill toward the Ottoman camp. Sobieski led from the front with 3,000 of his Polish Winged Hussars. The ground shook. The Ottoman lines, which had held all day, looked up to see a wall of horses, lances, and screaming wings descending on them at full speed. The formation collapsed almost immediately. 🔸The battle raged for 15 hours after which the Ottoman army was in full retreat. Kara Mustafa abandoned his command tent, his treasury, his artillery, and the green banner of the Prophet Muhammad. The Poles captured so much coffee from the Ottoman camp that it is credited with introducing the coffeehouse culture to Vienna. 🔸Kara Mustafa fled to Belgrade, where he was executed by order of the Sultan three months later. The Ottoman Empire never again threatened central Europe with the same force. The siege of Vienna is now considered the high-water mark of Ottoman expansion into the West. 🔸On the evening of the victory, Sobieski wrote a letter to the Pope. In it, he borrowed the words of Julius Caesar and wrote: "I came, I saw, God conquered." He had just saved Western Europe. He sent the letter before the bodies were even cleared from the field. 🔸The Winged Hussars charged for the last time at Vienna, and they won the most consequential cavalry battle in modern history. Within a generation, the age of mounted shock warfare would be over forever. Most people have never heard of the Battle of Vienna or of Jan Sobieski (he will receive his own card in due time). I believe it is vital you are now part of the group that does. History has a way of burying the moments that changed everything. Europe was about to fall. These men ensured it didn't. Thanks for sticking with me. Tomorrow I've got another fantastic story lined up for you.

Japanese engineers developed a “Sword Tip Visualization System” for the Fencing World Championships, and it makes fencing look absolutely incredible to watch.

God, Creation and ‘The Story of Everything’ wsj.com/opinion/god-cr…

Hero open.substack.com/pub/goldenthre…

Interesting 🧵. “Insurance is not access”. In many cases Access>Insurance.

Civilization was built by people like this, and there is a stunning lack of gratitude in our culture for their work. In this specific case, at least half of the apple varieties in Brown’s collection were considered “lost” until he personally tracked them down and saved them. He literally went on quests where he did things like, tracking a lost variety back to a stump of a long-ago-cut-down tree near an abandoned homestead in remote Appalachia, took cuttings from the green shoots coming out of the stump, brought them back and planted them. Absolute legend.