@MichaelKudrna @ConsensusGurus couldn't agree more on the drinks comment - such a no brainer. also their sides. wraps is a step in the right direction but they could do a lot more
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Clay Knapp
2.4K posts
Clay Knapp
@clay_knapp
cold storage industrial real estate investor / longtime $TSLA shareholder & FSD tester / some crypto / objectivist / love sports (volleyball, surf, golf, etc.)
Costa Mesa, CA Katılım Temmuz 2010
789 Takip Edilen431 Takipçiler
This is hilarious to me, no offense intended @ConsensusGurus
The TickerTrend chart shows wraps at 3.74% social share and 61% positive
On the same week's earnings call, Bittner from Oppenheimer asked $SG CEO directly for the wraps incrementality number. Neman's answer: "Im not going to guide to an exact number on incrementality"
They tested wraps in 70 stores for months. They know the number.....they chose not to share it. If wraps moved the needle, he'd tell you, but he didn't
That doesn't mean wraps are a bad idea, I said a long time ago it should have been done....but this is 2026, not 2010. It's just a wrap.
The earnings data...
Q1 comps: −12.8%
Traffic: −11.2%
April with wraps in ~25% of stores: still −8%
FY guide: −2% to −4%, implying H2 has to swing roughly flat to positive after a −16.8% combined Q1+Q2.
That's the company's own forecast for the product the chart is supposedly previewing
Restaurant wrap history...
Find me one wrap launch that drove +200bps SUSTAINED comp
McWrap: discontinued
Snack Wrap: discontinued for "operational complexity" and brought back as a 2.99 value menu option (a fraction of the price of an SG wrap ranging $11ish to $15
Popeyes Chicken Sandwich did +34% comps in Q4 2019. Management quantified it instantly because it was undeniable
$SG management refused to quantify it. That's the tell
Consensus Media@ConsensusGurus
@MichaelKudrna See below and only getting better
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@MichaelKudrna they've for sure got a lot of wood to chop, in a tough segment right now
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@clay_knapp just adding color, I'm not in disagreement with you. I love wraps
but this SweetGreen is incredible and the company is fixed argument others are making is obnoxious to outright lying.
and people will lose money on it believing it
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I love wraps, who doesn't?
but of all the items you can put on a menu, a wrap is an item you can make at home very easily
There is no moat, no complexity....it's just a wrap
Clay Knapp@clay_knapp
@MichaelKudrna haha, yes. wraps are very popular right now. you know how the internet is...... everybody and their mother "reviews" it, and people like it
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@rupertmanfredi that's why i'm not using it at all. Claude for intelligence and then locally building what i need to use, customized for my own use
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I hate to say it – but Notion trying to be the "everything app" is giving me late 2010s decline of Evernote vibes...
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What's hilarious about Sweetgreen $SG is that those talking about the "wraps are a hit" on social media
aren't reading the comments....
the buzz is being fueled by upset people
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@MichaelKudrna haha, yes. wraps are very popular right now. you know how the internet is...... everybody and their mother "reviews" it, and people like it
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@clay_knapp @DJ_EBITDA @tickerplus Yes they need to be craveable and fun.... They fail that basic test
They'll have to close more of the weak locations if they don't fix that soon
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$SG Sweetgreen wrap rollout seeing strong early traction across social channels, with discussion skewing overwhelmingly positive.
Conversation volume inflected sharply over the weekend as distribution expanded and consumer engagement accelerated around the new product launch.
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I love $CAVA the company. Best concept in fast casual. Not even close
Then I watched Sweetgreen $SG explode, Wingstop $WING face plant, Domino's $DPZ miss, Shake Shack $SHAK lose a third of its value in a session, and Chili's $EAT traffic go negative for the first time since people still used Blockbuster
And I'm supposed to step in front of CAVA's print at 164x earnings while the entire C suite is selling and the CEO buys 150 shares like he's tipping a valet
Hard pass, I don't feel any edge anymore after watching so many bombs. I'll have to wait despite my love for the model.....Discipline
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@MichaelKudrna @DJ_EBITDA @tickerplus yeah i agree they could do something way better than their tiny drinks - make them larger or somehow more exciting. also, their sides are super boring. there is upside. i'm a big fan of the wraps but they could do more
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it might help $SG stabilize, but I can't see "wraps" as the growth vehicle just like i couldn't see $20 salads as a thing.
Tell me when they introduce a drink lineup and something more fun/craveable, then they finally joining the party, late but better than never.
needs new leadership still
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@jonathanmaze have you noticed the attention around the Wraps rollout? it seems very strong - and they are very good
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$SG putting up 6-7% SSS Comps and guiding to +16% new restaurant growth in 2025. 3Q rev growth slowed to +13% - that’s why stock down -5%. We would advise buying the dip on this best in class restaurant chain backed by eat healthy megatrend.
Gary Black@garyblack00
$SG -10% AH after missing 3Q rev and adj eps ests. Mgmt increased its guidance for FY’24 SSS comps, revs and ebitda so stock could recover tomorrow or after 3-day rule. This is one of the best quick serve restaurant growth stories out there (FY’24 SSS 6-7%) and when one can buy the dip, it tends to pays off. $SG YTD +273% vs NDX +25% 3Q results: - Revs $173.4M vs $175.5M est - SSS +6.0% vs +5.9% est - Adj ebitda $6.8M vs $6.8M est - Adj EPS -$.18 vs -$.14 est - New stores 5 vs 5.8 est FY’24 guidance - Rev $675M-$680M, saw $670M-$680M, vs $678.2M est - Adj Ebitda $18M-$20M, saw $16M-$19M, vs $19.4M est - SSS +6% to +7%, saw +5% to +7%, vs +6.25% est - Still sees new restaurants 24 to 26 vs 24.8 est (implies 9–11 new stores in 4Q; already opened 5 so far this quarter).
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@StockMKTNewz it's because they are offering crazy bonuses to transfer assets in - anyone who doesn't take the 3% cash on transferred assets from other brokerages is silly
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ROBINHOOD $HOOD JUST RELEASED ITS APRIL 2026 MONTHLY METRICS
- Funded Customers: 27.6M (up 1.65M year-over-year)
- Total Platform Assets: $345B (up 49% year-over-year)
- Net Deposits: $6.0B in April (29% annual growth rate)
- Equity Trading Volume: $249B (up 57% year-over-year)
- Margin Book: $18.0B (up 114% year-over-year)
The margin book number is the one worth watching.
$8.4B a year ago. $18B today. Customers are borrowing more to invest than ever before.
Platform assets up 49% year-over-year tells you this is not just market appreciation. People are actively moving money into Robinhood.
Crypto volumes down 33% from March. Bitstamp specifically dropped 46% month-over-month.
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@RobinhoodApp why does Robinhood try to pretend to care about retirement when within the same app they push gambling to young people?
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@vladtenev Vlad you should cut gambling from Robinhood, completely goes against everything you say you stand for - building wealth for the individual investor but then robbing them and young people through gambling?
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RVI crossed $1B in market cap 🔥
When you tear down the gates, the market answers. Thank you to the everyday investors claiming their seat at the table, and the frontier companies building alongside us. We’re just getting started.
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