Jaguar Capital

@evergreencap3 @satyanadella haha no shots - it was a joke.

@cmo040958 @satyanadella Don’t shoot the messenger. Trust me I’m rooting for them

You simply cannot make this up. I saw @satyanadella’s post hyping Copilot in $MSFT Word, so I replicated his exact demo workflow in my own environment. - Had ChatGPT generate an investment memo - Opened the Copilot pane in Word - Used the first prompt verbatim: “turn on track changes and tighten the executive summary” Copilot happily generated a redlined version… …inside the chat box. The actual document? Untouched. How is this possible? 😂

@R_and_Invest Thanks! My #s are higher 😂. IMO many growth vectors wld need to u/p simultaneously for arpu to inflect like above - unlikely. If you buy conv. improv., then at flat cpas / roas you grow WTP $ / imp. Layer in auction px max, time per user, and user growth. All of these improving

@cmo040958 I cant share model or estimates. But yeah I just realized my -ve was the pricing (drop from ROW) so, still growing but way below street. I dont know what street's smoking or I am smoking. Just to be clear I did this last month when no end in sight on war. So, #s will change.

@cmo040958 $META PTs by street:

@R_and_Invest Got it. Why is 2022 a good analogy for this year? Very different setup imo. Topline decline there was primarily on ATT, reels cannibalization / under $ , ecomm growth pull fwd... macro ofc doesn't help but that's not how I bridge it.

Yeah. In 2022 they were going to grow 20%+ and ended up being down 1%. Oil/Rates and macro. I took down Mar-Dec growth to negative from up 20% because IMO the impact of oil in Europe and Asia - largest geographies for Meta would be felt in 2H of this year. Dont focus on EBIT as capex has caused depreciation to ramp very high. EBITDA down primarily because I havent cut opex fast enough- only $8B below mang guide. They should be doing $140B in opex based on my $214B revs. At the end of the day when we model out next 5 years - there cannot be a more cheaper Megacap w/> $1T in mcap. And this barely includes what their Spark and other AI models could do for them. They do need to cut RL spend/grow revs or EPS wont hit $50 anytime soon.

@R_and_Invest If you take Q1 26 topline guide, your 26e # implies rev flat rest of the year. If you kept impressions flat yoy (vr unlikely - time + engag. up dd%), model deployments are driving much higher conv. / roas, and thus higher auction px. Hard to cut their budget w/ these roas.

@cmo040958 Buy side definitely is biased from 2022. And no matter what one says, its hard to model $165B in opex when last 4 years were $88B $88B $95B $117B Both buy side AND sell side are wrong IMHO. I am below sell side by a mile.

@satyanadella @aresearchguy

New in Word: Copilot now tracks changes, leaves comments, and more, working more like a coworker right inside your document, grounded in all your enterprise context with Work IQ.

@R_and_Invest Street is extremely bullish on Meta?

Near term earnings should be ok. However, the street could be mis-modeling $META forward growth to reach $240B in revenues this year. For that to happen Europe, Asia should see pick up in activity. May be if street lowers their revenues to $205-210B, and Meta cuts $10B in costs, the $675 resistance could become support to $1,100. But street is extremely extremely bullish, which is very silly when oil price is above $70.

@valuations_ @gordocap18 @P_Remarks Definitely assume that consumption will change (and fast) LT, but think they are most likely to capture value wherever mkt goes. It was never capital light (same for loved CSPs) but that's built moat / driven growth. TBF you don't need 30x exit for good r/r either.

I've been a bull for a long time, but the way we consume media changes rapidly and it's a mistake to assume it will be unchanged a decade from now. I think the MAUs have been gamed for a long time. I doubt my kids will have a FB ro IG and we've been hearing about WhatsApp monetization forever. To PR's point, the last 5-6 years has proven that it's not capital light, and requires a lot of faith in Zuckerberg's capital allocation. Not saying it should trade below a market multiple, but I don't see an indestructible moat.

@evergreencap3 Yep - the compounding of time spent x higher conversion looks underestimated to me. Also find consensus drop-through in outer years too low.

Muse Spark also making $META revenue projections look increasingly low. If you believe it's a good model, and Meta will apply it/future models across platforms for users/ads, driving engagement + ad ROI, then 27/28 ests which assume decel and flat $ growth look very conservative.

@jukan05 @aresearchguy

I respect the people who bought $GOOGL when Bard came out and everyone thought Google was sinking. It feels just like buying $MSFT right now, doesn’t it?

@returnoncap $ABEV is a well known value trap

Some notable ~10x EBIT companies to research if you feel confident about their durability: $QCOM $ADBE $INTU $ABEV $PAYX $AMS.MC

Mark Zuckerberg on why large companies keep losing to startups: "Large companies are slow and they lack conviction." Mark reflects on one of the most puzzling questions about Facebook's rise: why didn't a bigger company build it first? "It wasn't like it was a super novel idea. There was Friendster before, there was MySpace, there's all this stuff. Google, Microsoft, Yahoo — they all had versions of it. Why didn't they do it?" It wasn't a talent problem. The resources were there. The engineers were there. Facebook, by contrast, was built by what Mark calls "a rag tag group of children." So what went wrong inside those big companies? Mark traces it to how large organisations respond to doubt: "People doubt new ideas before they come to fruition. The narrative with social networking is like, 'Ah, it's just a college kid thing.' Maybe it's a fad. Maybe it won't make money. Maybe mobile will kill it." By the time each layer of doubt was disproved, it was already too late. And the real culprit? Middle management. "There's probably some team buried deep inside those companies that believed in it, and probably some VP person who was like, 'Eh, that's probably not the biggest priority,' and just poured some sand in the gears." One cautious decision at one level. That's all it takes to kill a category-defining opportunity. Mark extends this beyond Facebook. Even for opportunities that seem tailor-made for large companies, where they hold a clear distribution advantage, he's blunt about the odds: "I would guess that big companies are going to fumble two-thirds of those." And the opportunities that don't plug into existing distribution channels? He calls those "just kind of free," wide open for whoever moves first. The pattern is consistent: size creates hesitation, hesitation creates delay, and delay hands the market to whoever was willing to act before the idea was proven.

@valuations_ @gordocap18 @P_Remarks Moat is huge / grows stronger w/size & what has allowed him to focus on following users wherever they go LT (which they have a higher prob. of doing vs comps). Don't follow the conditional - these bets are not replacing core biz and are not evidence of the latter weakening?

@gordocap18 @P_Remarks Is the moat that strong? Will people still be using FoA in 15 years from now? If Zuck thought it was that strong not sure he would’ve torched the GDP of a small nation trying to build the next platform.

@DDBlakeFischer Very reasonable. I actually really like how Zuck is willing to leave money on the table today (RL, R&D etc) to maximize TV and benefit from natural biz tailwinds. Reminds me of AMZN in many ways.

@cmo040958 Agreed. Best of breed. Lots of tailwinds and valuation is reasonable

Getting some strong anecdotes on meta ads from a few friends who own small businesses. Each of their largest expenses is ads on meta. “ROAS much higher than anywhere else we can advertise. The more we spend, the more we sell.” Claude and work efficiency tools are making business ideas easier to get off the ground, and most of these become Meta customers. $META

@DDBlakeFischer Interesting data pts Blake. Makes a ton sense given all their work on Advantage+, GEM / Andromeda deployment...

@DDBlakeFischer Market still underestimating ROIC on core biz...

@aresearchguy @Polymarket Agreed.

@cmo040958 @Polymarket it’s about sustainability and staying at the top. Initial downloads wouldn’t read too much yet. (Check back 5 months+).

JUST IN: Meta AI has officially overtaken ChatGPT in the Apple App Store rankings.