Silent_Bob

Luis Enrique: “Lo que piensas hoy, vale para hoy, para mañana si ganas, pero para pasado ya no, porque los rivales se adaptan continuamente. Lo que dije era mi pensamiento en ese momento: que lo iba a controlar todo. Y la grandeza del París Saint-Germain está en que cada vez controlo menos. Tiene un significado profundo. Cuanto menos controlo, más posibilidades tengo de que el rival no sepa lo que vamos a hacer y de que tarde más en adaptarse. Y cuando se adapte, ese es mi trabajo como entrenador: tratar de salir de esa zona y dejar de controlar las cosas para que se vuelvan imprevisibles. Es el objetivo que tenemos como equipo”.

Adam Wharton goes to Liverpool, they need a quarterback. Elliot Anderson goes to United, they need his blend of physicality + inventive passing to free up Mainoo (Wharton + Mainoo is too physically weak). Carlos Baleba goes to City, they need his super physicality in the middle

𝗦𝗼, 𝗵𝗼𝘄 𝗺𝘂𝗰𝗵 𝙘𝙤𝙪𝙡𝙙 𝗠𝗮𝗻 𝗨𝘁𝗱 𝘀𝗽𝗲𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘀𝘂𝗺𝗺𝗲𝗿? Two main considerations when fiscally planning recruitment: 1., Do you have the liquidity? (cash) 2., Can you manage financial regs? (PSR etc) I won’t comment on 1. because I have no idea whether Ineos will pony up more cash or not. So, where are Man Utd at with PSR? Clubs can make a maximum loss of £105m over a 3-year period. It is assessed at the end of each financial year (in May/June), looking back 3 seasons. You can’t use the profits/losses directly from the published accounts in the assessment because some costs can be excluded (infrastructure spend, women’s game spend, youth development spend, etc.) I and others have sized Man Utd’s PSR-level profits/losses (after excluding allowed expenditure) over the prior two years as: 2022/23 - 10m profit 2023/24 - £45m loss And I estimate this year will be: 2024/25 - £30m loss This estimate could be out by £10-15m either way because it has assumptions built in. But given Man Utd’s own Q2 report estimated similar FY EBITDA as last year, I’m confident it’s about right. If anything, a bit conservative. Therefore, the 3-year combined loss would be £65m. Which is well under the £105m loss limit. They’ll pass PSR this year with ease and there will be no PSR sanctions applied next season. However, we can extrapolate this calculation to determine an estimated loss next season given changes in circumstances (e.g., the loss of European football, loss of commercial income). As matters stand, assuming no-one is sold and players out on loan return, Man Utd’s projected PSR-level loss next season (2025/26) will be ~£165m (this assumes Heaton, Evans and Eriksen all leave the club as their contracts are up). This means the 3-year assessment would be a loss of £240m, which is £135m more than the £105m limit. 𝗧𝗵𝗮𝘁’𝘀 𝗮 £𝟭𝟯𝟱𝗺 𝗣𝗦𝗥 𝗵𝗼𝗹𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝗳𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗻𝗲𝘅𝘁 𝗠𝗮𝘆, 𝗮𝘀 𝗺𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗻𝗱. If we assume that Man Utd could sell: Rashford for £20m Antony for £25m Garnacho for £40m And release Sancho (after taking the £5m penalty fee off of Chelsea) 𝗘𝘃𝗲𝗻 𝗮𝗳𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗼𝘀𝗲 𝘀𝗮𝗹𝗲𝘀, 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗣𝗦𝗥 𝗵𝗼𝗹𝗲 𝗮𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗲𝗻𝗱 𝗼𝗳 𝗻𝗲𝘅𝘁 𝘀𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗼𝗻 𝘄𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗯𝗲 £𝟭𝟬𝗺! i.e., there would still be no headroom to purchase any more players without breaching PSR next season… although such a small £10m gap could potentially be bridged with merit payments by finishing a few places higher in the PL. So… what if they sold other players with high market values but low book values, like: Mainoo for £50m And Bruno for £100m That would give them headroom next season of £155m as matters stand (factoring in reduced wages too). Man Utd could then spend really big this window and still pass PSR next season. In fact, that’s sufficient headroom to sign 6 players at £60m a pop, on 5-year contracts with wages of £200kpw each. i.e., They could do a massive rebuild and not breach PSR next season! Sounds too good to be true? That’s because it is… Here’s the issue; what about the season after that? In 2026/27? Since that rebuild would have been funded by one-off profits that don’t repeat, they become unstuck the year after. Again, as matters stand, even after accounting for the expiry of Casemiro’s and Maguire’s contracts at the end of next season, they’d end up with a PSR hole in 2026/27 of £150m! Right back where they started but with no-one left to sell. Either Man Utd choose to downsize, be prudent and slowly rebuild over time; accepting the risk of relegation and being a bottom half side for a while… Or they go guns blazing with a massive rebuild this summer, hoping they can make top 5 next season and smash it in the UCL in 2026/27. But if they choose the latter and fail to get top 5… what then? Well, they have to hope the rules change by then. Or accept the huge points deductions that would come their way in 2027/28. Some big decisions coming up for the club.